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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: June 12, 2018  |  Next Release Date: July 10, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Natural Gas

  • U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 73.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.2 Bcf/d in 2018, establishing a new record. EIA expects natural gas production will rise again in 2019 to 83.8 Bcf/d. .
  • Growing forecast U.S. natural gas production supports increasing forecast liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. LNG exports averaged 1.9 Bcf/d in 2017. EIA forecasts LNG exports to average 3.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 5.1 Bcf/d in 2019. Dominion Energy’s Cove Point LNG facility is ramping up exports. In April, the facility exported an estimated 13.4 Bcf, implying baseload utilization of 65%, and in May, it exported an estimated 23.5 Bcf, implying baseload utilization of 94%.
  • EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.08/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for September 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending June 7, 2018, suggest that a range of $2.38/MMBtu to $3.57/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for September Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
U.S. Natural Gas Summary
  2016201720182019
Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot 2.613.103.103.19
Residential Sector 10.0410.9210.5710.91
Commercial Sector 7.297.877.898.03
Industrial Sector 3.524.144.164.26
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production 77.8178.9487.2690.27
Dry Gas Production 72.8573.5781.2083.78
Pipeline Imports 7.978.127.917.91
LNG Imports 0.240.210.230.22
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector 11.8712.1213.4913.20
Commercial Sector 8.488.709.309.13
Industrial Sector 21.1021.6522.0222.04
Electric Power Sector 27.2825.3427.7327.64
Total Consumption 75.1074.2279.5779.41
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days -5.1-1.211.8-1.5
Cooling Degree Days 4.7-8.6-1.7-2.1
Commercial Employment 2.21.81.71.4
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production 1.12.82.03.1

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