Short-Term Energy Outlook

Natural Gas

EIA estimates dry natural gas production was 81.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in July, up 0.4 Bcf/d from June. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.1 Bcf/d in 2018, up by 7.5 Bcf/d from 2017 and establishing a new record high. EIA expects natural gas production will rise again in 2019 to 84.1 Bcf/d.

EIA forecasts that pipeline exports of natural gas, which averaged 6.7 Bcf/d in 2017, will average 7.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 8.5 Bcf/d in 2019. Increasing natural gas production in the United States and the completion of new pipelines that carry U.S. natural gas to demand centers in Mexico contribute to the expected increase. In June, two new pipelines in Mexico were placed in service that will distribute natural gas from the United States to destinations in Mexico. In addition, EIA forecasts exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rise from 1.9 Bcf/d in 2017 to 3.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and to 5.1 Bcf/d in 2019. This growth contributes to U.S. net exports of natural gas averaging 2.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 5.4 Bcf/d in 2019, compared with 0.3 Bcf/d in 2017.

EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.96/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.10/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for November 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending August 2, 2018, suggest a range of $2.33/MMBtu to $3.48/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for November Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

U.S. Natural Gas Summary
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
Prices	(dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot	2.61	3.10	3.07	3.21
Residential Sector	10.04	10.92	10.64	10.87
Commercial Sector	7.29	7.87	7.90	8.02
Industrial Sector	3.52	4.14	4.16	4.29
Supply	(billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production	77.81	78.94	87.30	90.80
Dry Gas Production	72.85	73.57	81.10	84.10
Pipeline Imports	7.97	8.12	7.76	7.94
LNG Imports	0.24	0.21	0.21	0.22
Consumption	(billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector	11.87	12.12	13.23	12.83
Commercial Sector	8.48	8.70	9.04	8.76
Industrial Sector	21.10	21.65	22.49	22.49
Electric Power Sector	27.28	25.34	27.81	28.03
Total Consumption	75.10	74.22	79.57	79.47
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days	-5.1	-1.2	11.0	-1.5
Cooling Degree Days	4.7	-8.5	5.2	-8.7
Commercial Employment	2.2	1.8	1.7	1.3
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production	1.1	2.9	2.3	3.6

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Related Tables
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Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices	PDF
Table 8a. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption	PDF
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Related Figures
Henry Hub natural gas price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. natural gas prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. marketed natural gas production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. natural gas consumption	XLSX	PNG
U.S. natural gas balance	XLSX	PNG
U.S. natural gas trade	XLSX	PNG
U.S. working natural gas in storage	XLSX	PNG
U.S. electricity generation by fuel, all sectors	XLSX	PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions	XLSX	PNG

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