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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: October 10, 2018  |  Next Release Date: November 6, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

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Natural Gas

  • EIA estimates dry natural gas production in the United States averaged 85.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in September, up 0.6 Bcf/d from August. EIA forecasts that dry natural gas production will average 82.7 Bcf/d in 2018, up by 7.9 Bcf/d from 2017 and establishing a new record high. EIA expects natural gas production will continue to rise in 2019 to an average of 87.7 Bcf/d.
  • EIA forecasts that U.S. natural gas storage inventories will total 3.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) at the end of October. This level would be 14% lower than both the 2017 end-of-October level and the five-year (2013–17) average for the end of October, and it would also mark the lowest level for that time of year since 2005.
  • EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.12/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for January 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending October 4, 2018, suggest a range of $2.22/MMBtu to $4.85/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for January Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

U.S. natural gas consumption

U.S. natural gas balance

U.S. marketed natural gas production

U.S. natural gas trade

U.S. working natural gas in storage

U.S. Natural Gas Summary
  2016201720182019
Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot 2.613.103.103.23
Residential Sector 10.0410.8610.7410.94
Commercial Sector 7.297.867.948.10
Industrial Sector 3.514.104.144.31
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production 77.6079.9988.9494.64
Dry Gas Production 72.6674.7782.6787.73
Pipeline Imports 7.978.127.796.20
LNG Imports 0.240.210.190.22
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector 11.8812.0913.2513.13
Commercial Sector 8.508.679.039.06
Industrial Sector 21.1221.7822.5522.50
Electric Power Sector 27.2825.3428.7228.21
Total Consumption 74.9874.2780.5880.42
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days -5.1-1.210.8-1.5
Cooling Degree Days 4.7-8.611.7-13.9
Commercial Employment 2.21.81.71.7
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production 1.12.92.94.0

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Related Tables
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices PDF
Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories PDF
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices PDF
Table 8a. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption PDF
Table 8b. U.S. Renewable Electricity Generation and Capacity PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data PDF
Related Figures
Henry Hub natural gas price XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas prices XLSX PNG
U.S. marketed natural gas production XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas balance XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas trade XLSX PNG
U.S. working natural gas in storage XLSX PNG
U.S. electricity generation by fuel, all sectors XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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