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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: June 11, 2019  |  Next Release Date: July 9, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Natural Gas

  • The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.64/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in May, almost unchanged from April. EIA expects strong growth in U.S. natural gas production to put downward pressure on prices in 2019. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will average $2.77/MMBtu in 2019, down 38 cents/MMBtu from 2018. EIA expects natural gas prices in 2020 will again average $2.77/MMBtu.
  • EIA forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 90.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2019, up 7.2 Bcf/d from 2018. EIA expects natural gas production will continue to grow in 2020, albeit at a slower rate, averaging 91.8 Bcf/d next year.
  • U.S. natural gas exports averaged 9.9 Bcf/d in 2018, and EIA forecasts that they will rise by 2.5 Bcf/d in 2019 and by 2.9 Bcf/d in 2020. Rising exports reflect increases in liquefied natural gas exports as new facilities come online. Rising natural gas exports are also the result of an expected increase in pipeline exports to Mexico.
  • EIA estimates that natural gas inventories ended March at 1.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 15% lower than levels from a year earlier and 28% lower than the five-year (2014–18) average. EIA forecasts that natural gas storage injections will outpace the previous five-year average during the 2019 April-through-October injection season and that inventories will reach almost 3.8 Tcf at the end of October, which would be 17% higher than October 2018 levels and about equal to the five-year average.

U.S. natural gas consumption

U.S. marketed natural gas production

U.S. natural gas trade

U.S. working natural gas in storage

U.S. natural gas balance

U.S. Natural Gas Summary
  2017201820192020
Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot 3.103.272.882.87
Residential Sector 10.8610.4910.6010.92
Commercial Sector 7.867.827.787.83
Industrial Sector 4.104.204.064.00
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production 79.9989.6997.5799.07
Dry Gas Production 74.7783.4090.6091.79
Pipeline Imports 8.127.777.487.41
LNG Imports 0.210.210.210.22
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector 12.0913.6313.9013.38
Commercial Sector 8.679.539.619.13
Industrial Sector 21.7822.7023.2323.72
Electric Power Sector 25.3929.1129.7230.18
Total Consumption 74.3282.0884.1784.38
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days -1.311.7-0.1-2.6
Cooling Degree Days -8.311.1-13.0-0.0
Commercial Employment 1.71.61.81.5
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production 3.32.60.41.2

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Related Figures
Henry Hub natural gas price XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas prices XLSX PNG
U.S. marketed natural gas production XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas balance XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas trade XLSX PNG
U.S. working natural gas in storage XLSX PNG
U.S. electricity generation by fuel, all sectors XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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