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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: August 7, 2018  |  Next Release Date: September 11, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures
       Notice for August 2018 release

Natural Gas

  • EIA estimates dry natural gas production was 81.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in July, up 0.4 Bcf/d from June. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.1 Bcf/d in 2018, up by 7.5 Bcf/d from 2017 and establishing a new record high. EIA expects natural gas production will rise again in 2019 to 84.1 Bcf/d.
  • EIA forecasts that pipeline exports of natural gas, which averaged 6.7 Bcf/d in 2017, will average 7.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 8.5 Bcf/d in 2019. Increasing natural gas production in the United States and the completion of new pipelines that carry U.S. natural gas to demand centers in Mexico contribute to the expected increase. In June, two new pipelines in Mexico were placed in service that will distribute natural gas from the United States to destinations in Mexico. In addition, EIA forecasts exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rise from 1.9 Bcf/d in 2017 to 3.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and to 5.1 Bcf/d in 2019. This growth contributes to U.S. net exports of natural gas averaging 2.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 5.4 Bcf/d in 2019, compared with 0.3 Bcf/d in 2017.
  • EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.96/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.10/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for November 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending August 2, 2018, suggest a range of $2.33/MMBtu to $3.48/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for November Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

U.S. natural gas consumption

U.S. natural gas balance

U.S. marketed natural gas production

U.S. natural gas trade

U.S. working natural gas in storage

U.S. Natural Gas Summary
  2016201720182019
Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot 2.613.103.073.21
Residential Sector 10.0410.9210.6410.87
Commercial Sector 7.297.877.908.02
Industrial Sector 3.524.144.164.29
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production 77.8178.9487.3090.80
Dry Gas Production 72.8573.5781.1084.10
Pipeline Imports 7.978.127.767.94
LNG Imports 0.240.210.210.22
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector 11.8712.1213.2312.83
Commercial Sector 8.488.709.048.76
Industrial Sector 21.1021.6522.4922.49
Electric Power Sector 27.2825.3427.8128.03
Total Consumption 75.1074.2279.5779.47
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days -5.1-1.211.0-1.5
Cooling Degree Days 4.7-8.55.2-8.7
Commercial Employment 2.21.81.71.3
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production 1.12.92.33.6

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Related Figures
Henry Hub natural gas price XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas prices XLSX PNG
U.S. marketed natural gas production XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas balance XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas trade XLSX PNG
U.S. working natural gas in storage XLSX PNG
U.S. electricity generation by fuel, all sectors XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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