Short-Term Energy Outlook

Natural Gas

U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 73.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.1 Bcf/d in 2018, establishing a new record. EIA expects natural gas production will rise by 1.7 Bcf/d in 2019.

Growing U.S. natural gas production is expected to support both growing domestic consumption and increasing natural gas exports in the forecast. EIA forecasts U.S. consumption of natural gas to increase by 4.2 Bcf/d (5.7%) in 2018 and by 0.7 Bcf/d (0.9%) in 2019, with electric power generation the leading contributor to this increase. EIA also expects net natural gas exports to increase from 0.4 Bcf/d in 2017 to an annual average of 2.2 Bcf/d in 2018 and 4.4 Bcf/d in 2019.

EIA estimates that natural gas inventories ended March (typically considered the end of the winter heating season) at almost 1.4 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), which was 19% lower than the previous five-year average. Based on a forecast of rising production, EIA forecasts that natural gas inventories will increase by more than the five-year average rate of growth during the injection season (April–October) to reach almost 3.8 Tcf on October 31, which would be 2% lower than the previous five-year average.

EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/million British Thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.07/MMBtu in 2019. The average NYMEX futures and options contract values for July 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending April 5, 2018, suggest that a range of $2.30/MMBtu to $3.43/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for July Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

U.S. Natural Gas Summary
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
Prices	(dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot	2.61	3.10	3.10	3.19
Residential Sector	10.04	10.92	10.55	10.95
Commercial Sector	7.29	7.87	7.84	8.05
Industrial Sector	3.52	4.14	4.15	4.29
Supply	(billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production	77.81	78.93	87.03	89.08
Dry Gas Production	72.85	73.57	81.08	82.79
Pipeline Imports	7.97	8.11	8.05	8.29
LNG Imports	0.24	0.21	0.24	0.22
Consumption	(billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector	11.87	12.12	13.02	12.90
Commercial Sector	8.48	8.70	9.03	9.03
Industrial Sector	21.10	21.65	21.84	21.93
Electric Power Sector	27.28	25.34	27.50	27.96
Total Consumption	75.10	74.22	78.45	79.18
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days	-5.1	-1.2	9.2	0.7
Cooling Degree Days	4.7	-8.5	-2.3	-1.1
Commercial Employment	2.2	1.8	1.7	1.9
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production	1.1	2.8	2.9	3.1

Provides custom data views of historical and forecast data

STEO Data browser ›
Real Prices Viewer ›

Related Tables
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices	PDF
Table 8a. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption	PDF
Table 8b. U.S. Renewable Electricity Generation and Capacity	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data	PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data	PDF

Related Figures
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Natural Gas Prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Summer Cooling Degree Days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Winter Heating Degree Days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Total Industrial Production Index	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Disposable Income	XLSX	PNG

Related Articles
Today In Energy	Daily
Natural Gas Weekly Update	Weekly
Peak Underground Working Storage Capacity	Annual
2018 Summer Fuels Outlook	Apr-2018	PDF
2017-2018 Winter Fuels Outlook	Oct-2017	PDF
Weather Sensitivity in Natural Gas Markets	Oct-2014	PDF
2014 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages	Jun-2014	PDF
Energy-weighted industrial production indices	Mar-2014	PDF
Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter	Jan-2013	PDF
Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations	Sep-2012	PDF
2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico	Jun-2012	PDF
Changes in Natural Gas Monthly Consumption Data Collection and the Short-Term Energy Outlook	Dec-2010	PDF
Trends in U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption	23-Jun-2010	PDF
Probabilities of Possible Future Prices	Apr-2010	PDF
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty	Oct-2009	PDF
The Implications of Lower Natural Gas Prices for Electric Generators in the Southeast	May-2009	PDF