U.S. Energy Information Administration logo
‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: October 10, 2018  |  Next Release Date: November 6, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Natural Gas

  • EIA estimates dry natural gas production in the United States averaged 85.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in September, up 0.6 Bcf/d from August. EIA forecasts that dry natural gas production will average 82.7 Bcf/d in 2018, up by 7.9 Bcf/d from 2017 and establishing a new record high. EIA expects natural gas production will continue to rise in 2019 to an average of 87.7 Bcf/d.
  • EIA forecasts that U.S. natural gas storage inventories will total 3.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) at the end of October. This level would be 14% lower than both the 2017 end-of-October level and the five-year (2013–17) average for the end of October, and it would also mark the lowest level for that time of year since 2005.
  • EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.12/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for January 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending October 4, 2018, suggest a range of $2.22/MMBtu to $4.85/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for January Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

U.S. natural gas consumption

U.S. natural gas balance

U.S. marketed natural gas production

U.S. natural gas trade

U.S. working natural gas in storage

U.S. Natural Gas Summary
  2016201720182019
Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot 2.613.103.103.23
Residential Sector 10.0410.8610.7410.94
Commercial Sector 7.297.867.948.10
Industrial Sector 3.514.104.144.31
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production 77.6079.9988.9494.64
Dry Gas Production 72.6674.7782.6787.73
Pipeline Imports 7.978.127.796.20
LNG Imports 0.240.210.190.22
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector 11.8812.0913.2513.13
Commercial Sector 8.508.679.039.06
Industrial Sector 21.1221.7822.5522.50
Electric Power Sector 27.2825.3428.7228.21
Total Consumption 74.9874.2780.5880.42
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days -5.1-1.210.8-1.5
Cooling Degree Days 4.7-8.611.7-13.9
Commercial Employment 2.21.81.71.7
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production 1.12.92.94.0

Interactive Data Viewers

Provides custom data views of historical and forecast data

STEO Data browser ›
Real Prices Viewer ›

Related Figures
Henry Hub natural gas price XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas prices XLSX PNG
U.S. marketed natural gas production XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas balance XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas trade XLSX PNG
U.S. working natural gas in storage XLSX PNG
U.S. electricity generation by fuel, all sectors XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
Related Articles    
Today In Energy Daily
Natural Gas Weekly Update Weekly
Peak Underground Working Storage Capacity Annual
2018-2019 Winter Fuels Outlook Oct-2018 PDF
2018 Summer Fuels Outlook Oct-2018 PDF
2017-2018 Winter Fuels Outlook Oct-2017 PDF
Weather Sensitivity in Natural Gas Markets Oct-2014 PDF
2014 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages Jun-2014 PDF
Energy-weighted industrial production indices Mar-2014 PDF
Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter Jan-2013 PDF
Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations Sep-2012 PDF
2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico Jun-2012 PDF
Changes in Natural Gas Monthly Consumption Data Collection and the Short-Term Energy Outlook Dec-2010 PDF
Trends in U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption 23-Jun-2010 PDF
Probabilities of Possible Future Prices Apr-2010 PDF
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty Oct-2009 PDF
The Implications of Lower Natural Gas Prices for Electric Generators in the Southeast May-2009 PDF