Short-Term Energy Outlook

Natural Gas

U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 73.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.2 Bcf/d in 2018, establishing a new record. EIA expects natural gas production will rise again in 2019 to 83.8 Bcf/d. .

Growing forecast U.S. natural gas production supports increasing forecast liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. LNG exports averaged 1.9 Bcf/d in 2017. EIA forecasts LNG exports to average 3.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 5.1 Bcf/d in 2019. Dominion Energy’s Cove Point LNG facility is ramping up exports. In April, the facility exported an estimated 13.4 Bcf, implying baseload utilization of 65%, and in May, it exported an estimated 23.5 Bcf, implying baseload utilization of 94%.

EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.08/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for September 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending June 7, 2018, suggest that a range of $2.38/MMBtu to $3.57/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for September Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

U.S. Natural Gas Summary
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
Prices	(dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot	2.61	3.10	3.10	3.19
Residential Sector	10.04	10.92	10.57	10.91
Commercial Sector	7.29	7.87	7.89	8.03
Industrial Sector	3.52	4.14	4.16	4.26
Supply	(billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production	77.81	78.94	87.26	90.27
Dry Gas Production	72.85	73.57	81.20	83.78
Pipeline Imports	7.97	8.12	7.91	7.91
LNG Imports	0.24	0.21	0.23	0.22
Consumption	(billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector	11.87	12.12	13.49	13.20
Commercial Sector	8.48	8.70	9.30	9.13
Industrial Sector	21.10	21.65	22.02	22.04
Electric Power Sector	27.28	25.34	27.73	27.64
Total Consumption	75.10	74.22	79.57	79.41
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days	-5.1	-1.2	11.8	-1.5
Cooling Degree Days	4.7	-8.6	-1.7	-2.1
Commercial Employment	2.2	1.8	1.7	1.4
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production	1.1	2.8	2.0	3.1

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Related Tables
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices	PDF
Table 8a. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption	PDF
Table 8b. U.S. Renewable Electricity Generation and Capacity	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data	PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data	PDF

Related Figures
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Natural Gas Prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Summer Cooling Degree Days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Winter Heating Degree Days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Total Industrial Production Index	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Disposable Income	XLSX	PNG

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