Natural gas

Natural gas demand
Exports are the leading source of U.S. natural gas demand growth in our forecast. We forecast natural gas demand (domestic consumption plus exports) in the United States will grow by 4% in 2025 compared with 2024, led by a 18% increase in exports of natural gas by pipeline and as liquefied natural gas (LNG). The combined residential and commercial sectors are the next-largest source of demand growth this year. Because of colder-than-normal weather in January and February compared with the same months in 2024 and closer-to-normal temperatures at the end of the year, we expect 9% more natural gas will be consumed annually in 2025 to meet increased demand for space heating.

We expect U.S. LNG exports to increase by 3.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 to an average of 15.2 Bcf/d. Two new LNG export facilities—Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 and Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3—started producing LNG in December 2024. Both facilities will continue to ramp up exports this year. Plaquemines LNG is currently producing LNG from all liquefaction trains in Phase 1 (consisting of nine blocks with two midscale trains in each). Plaquemines LNG has ramped up LNG exports more quickly than we had previously expected. As a result, we expect U.S. LNG exports will be 1.0 Bcf/d more than we forecast last month. Developers expect feedgas deliveries for Phase 2 to begin in September 2025 or sooner. Although China is currently not importing U.S. LNG, we assess that ample global demand for LNG and flexible destination clauses in U.S. LNG contracts mean U.S. LNG exports will be largely unaffected by recent trade policy developments.

We expect consumption in the residential and commercial sectors will average 23.0 Bcf/d in 2025, 1.8 Bcf/d more than the previous year.

Natural gas demand growth in 2026 will again be driven mostly by growth in LNG exports as additional LNG export capacity from Golden Pass comes online in the middle of the year. LNG exports grow by 1.2 Bcf/d in 2026 to reach an average of 16.4 Bcf/d. Additional demand growth in 2026 comes from pipeline exports, which grow by 0.8 Bcf/d in our forecast.

Natural gas storage and prices
A colder-than-normal January and February this winter heating season resulted in more natural gas than average being withdrawn from natural gas storage. We estimate more than 1,600 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas was withdrawn in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), or 21% more than the five-year (2019–2024) average. At the end of March, which marks the end of the U.S. natural gas storage withdrawal season (November–March), we estimate that U.S. working natural gas in underground storage totaled just over 1,800 Bcf, or 4% less than the five-year average.

We expect higher natural gas prices this year compared with 2024, which will encourage producers in the Appalachia and Haynesville regions to increase production. Dry natural gas production averages about 105 Bcf/d in 2Q25 in our forecast, nearly 3 Bcf/d more than the same period in 2024. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub price averages more than $3.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2Q25 in our forecast, almost 90% higher compared with 2Q24. We expect the Henry Hub price to average about $4.30/MMBtu in 2025 and nearly $4.60/MMBtu in 2026.

We expect natural gas injections into storage to be higher than average early in the natural gas injection season (April–October). However, injections to fall below the five-year average beginning in mid-summer when natural gas use in the electric power sector picks up. We forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the injection season on October 31 with 3% less natural gas in storage than the five-year average, with about 3,660 Bcf in storage.