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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: Sept. 7, 2022  |  Forecast Completed: Sept. 1, 2022  |  Next Release Date: Oct. 12, 2022  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Natural Gas

  • In August, the Henry Hub spot price averaged $8.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), up from $7.28/MMBtu in July. Natural gas prices rose in August because of continued strong demand for natural gas in the electric power sector, which has kept natural gas inventories below their five-year (2017–2021) average. We expect the Henry Hub price to average about $9/MMBtu in 4Q22 and then fall to an average of about $6/MMBtu in 2023 as U.S. natural gas production rises.
  • U.S. natural gas inventories ended August at 2.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), which was 12% below the five-year average. We forecast that inventories will end the injection season (April through October) at more than 3.4 Tcf, which would be 7% below the five-year average.
  • U.S. LNG exports in our forecast average 11.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 4Q22, up 1.7 Bcf/d from 3Q22. Factors that will affect the volume of LNG exports in the coming months include the planned outage at Cove Point in October and Freeport LNG resuming partial operations by mid- to late-November. We forecast LNG exports will average 12.3 Bcf/d in 2023.
  • U.S. consumption of natural gas in our forecast averages 86.6 Bcf/d in 2022, up 3.6 Bcf/d from 2021, driven by increases across all consuming sectors. We expect consumption to fall by 1.9 Bcf/d in 2023 because of declines in consumption in the industrial and electric power sectors.
  • Dry natural gas production has been rising relatively steadily since 1Q22, when it averaged 94.6 Bcf/d. We forecast U.S. dry natural gas production to average 99.0 Bcf/d in 4Q22 and then rise to 100.4 Bcf/d for 2023.

U.S. natural gas consumption

U.S. marketed natural gas production

U.S. natural gas trade

Henry Hub natural gas price

U.S. Natural Gas Summary
Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot
Residential Sector 10.7612.2715.4016.36
Commercial Sector 7.498.8211.6112.24
Industrial Sector 3.325.508.567.70
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production 98.91101.40105.65109.18
Dry Gas Production 91.4993.5597.09100.36
Pipeline Imports 6.847.637.887.40
LNG Imports
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector 12.7712.7513.6413.62
Commercial Sector 8.668.949.699.69
Industrial Sector 22.2722.4622.8621.91
Electric Power Sector 31.7530.8832.0930.99
Total Consumption 83.2782.9786.5684.63
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days -
Cooling Degree Days 1.5-1.61.7-9.7
Commercial Employment -
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production -

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Related Figures
Henry Hub natural gas price XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas prices XLSX PNG
U.S. marketed natural gas production XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas balance XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas trade XLSX PNG
U.S. working natural gas in storage XLSX PNG
U.S. electricity generation by fuel, all sectors XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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