U.S. Energy Information Administration logo
Skip to sub-navigation
‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: Sept. 7, 2022  |  Forecast Completed: Sept. 1, 2022  |  Next Release Date: Oct. 12, 2022  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Natural Gas

  • In August, the Henry Hub spot price averaged $8.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), up from $7.28/MMBtu in July. Natural gas prices rose in August because of continued strong demand for natural gas in the electric power sector, which has kept natural gas inventories below their five-year (2017–2021) average. We expect the Henry Hub price to average about $9/MMBtu in 4Q22 and then fall to an average of about $6/MMBtu in 2023 as U.S. natural gas production rises.
  • U.S. natural gas inventories ended August at 2.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), which was 12% below the five-year average. We forecast that inventories will end the injection season (April through October) at more than 3.4 Tcf, which would be 7% below the five-year average.
  • U.S. LNG exports in our forecast average 11.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 4Q22, up 1.7 Bcf/d from 3Q22. Factors that will affect the volume of LNG exports in the coming months include the planned outage at Cove Point in October and Freeport LNG resuming partial operations by mid- to late-November. We forecast LNG exports will average 12.3 Bcf/d in 2023.
  • U.S. consumption of natural gas in our forecast averages 86.6 Bcf/d in 2022, up 3.6 Bcf/d from 2021, driven by increases across all consuming sectors. We expect consumption to fall by 1.9 Bcf/d in 2023 because of declines in consumption in the industrial and electric power sectors.
  • Dry natural gas production has been rising relatively steadily since 1Q22, when it averaged 94.6 Bcf/d. We forecast U.S. dry natural gas production to average 99.0 Bcf/d in 4Q22 and then rise to 100.4 Bcf/d for 2023.

U.S. natural gas consumption

U.S. marketed natural gas production

U.S. natural gas trade

Henry Hub natural gas price

U.S. Natural Gas Summary
  2020202120222023
Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot 2.114.067.666.24
Residential Sector 10.7612.2715.4016.36
Commercial Sector 7.498.8211.6112.24
Industrial Sector 3.325.508.567.70
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production 98.91101.40105.65109.18
Dry Gas Production 91.4993.5597.09100.36
Pipeline Imports 6.847.637.887.40
LNG Imports 0.130.060.060.06
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector 12.7712.7513.6413.62
Commercial Sector 8.668.949.699.69
Industrial Sector 22.2722.4622.8621.91
Electric Power Sector 31.7530.8832.0930.99
Total Consumption 83.2782.9786.5684.63
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days -9.30.57.5-0.7
Cooling Degree Days 1.5-1.61.7-9.7
Commercial Employment -6.73.74.81.8
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production -7.74.52.51.2

Interactive Data Viewers

Provides custom data views of historical and forecast data

STEO Data browser ›
Real Prices Viewer ›

Related Figures
Henry Hub natural gas price XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas prices XLSX PNG
U.S. marketed natural gas production XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas balance XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas trade XLSX PNG
U.S. working natural gas in storage XLSX PNG
U.S. electricity generation by fuel, all sectors XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
Related Articles    
Today In Energy Daily
Natural Gas Weekly Update Weekly
Peak Underground Working Storage Capacity Annual
2022 Summer Fuels Outlook Apr-2022 PDF
2021 Summer Fuels Outlook Apr-2021 PDF
Weather Sensitivity in Natural Gas Markets Oct-2014 PDF
Energy-weighted industrial production indices Mar-2014 PDF
Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations Sep-2012 PDF
2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico Jun-2012 PDF
Changes in Natural Gas Monthly Consumption Data Collection and the Short-Term Energy Outlook Dec-2010 PDF
Trends in U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption 23-Jun-2010 PDF
Probabilities of Possible Future Prices Apr-2010 PDF
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty Oct-2009 PDF