Trend toward electric utility rate increases in regulated markets continues in 2024

Utility regulators in the United States are considering increases to electricity rates again this year as electric utilities seek to cover the investments needed to maintain and expand their systems. Utilities requested rate increases in recent years to pay for improvements to transmission and distribution lines to withstand increasingly serious weather and fire events, prepare for increased electrification as state and federal clean energy legislation is implemented, and move more energy reliably, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence Capital IQ Pro.

Batteries are a fast-growing secondary electricity source for the grid

• Utility-scale battery energy storage systems have been growing quickly as a source of electric power capacity in the United States in recent years. In the first seven months of 2024, operators added 5 gigawatts (GW) of capacity to the U.S. electric power grid, according to data in our July 2024 electric generator inventory. In 2010, only 4 megawatts (MW) of utility-scale battery energy storage was added in the United States. In July 2024, more than 20.7 GW of battery energy storage capacity was available in the United States.

U.S. thermal coal exports to Asia and Africa surge as shipments to Europe fall

U.S. exports of thermal coal to Asia and Africa surged in the first half of 2024, helping to drive overall U.S. coal exports (thermal and metallurgical) to 53 million short tons (MMst) from 49 MMst in the first half of 2023.

North America’s LNG export capacity is on track to more than double by 2028

North America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is on track to more than double between 2024 and 2028, from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 to 24.4 Bcf/d in 2028, if projects currently under construction begin operations as planned. Between 2024 and 2028, we estimate LNG export capacity will grow by 0.8 Bcf/d in Mexico, 2.5 Bcf/d in Canada, and 9.7 Bcf/d in the United States from a total of 10 new projects that are currently under construction in the three countries.

U.S. gasoline prices heading into Labor Day weekend are lower than last year

Heading into the holiday weekend, the retail price for all formulations of regular gasoline in the United States averaged $3.31 per gallon (gal) on August 26, 2024, 13% lower than this time last year. The decrease in prices paid at the pump was driven by weak growth in global and U.S. petroleum product demand, continued crude oil production growth from countries outside of OPEC+, and China’s slowing economy.

U.S. energy spending increased by more than 20% in 2022

In 2022, energy expenditures—or the amount of money U.S. consumers spent on energy—increased 22% from 2021 to more than $1.7 trillion when adjusted for inflation, according to our State Energy Data System (SEDS). More money was spent on energy in the United States on an inflation-adjusted basis in 2022 than in all but two years in our records. Higher U.S. energy prices in 2022 compared with 2021, particularly higher petroleum prices for transportation, caused most of the increase in total U.S. energy expenditures.

Natural gas-fired electricity generation increased during heat waves in New England

Electricity generation using fossil fuels increased in New England to meet the additional air-conditioning demand during heat waves in June and July. Natural gas-fired electricity generation made up 56% of New England’s generation mix during the week of the June 16 heat wave, peaking at 61% on June 22. Between July 6 and 13, natural gas-fired electricity averaged 58% of the generation mix. Despite the closure of the Mystic Generating Station in Massachusetts, natural gas accounted for more of the generation mix during both periods compared with the five-year (2019–23) average of 48% for the June 16–23 period and 54% for July 6–13.

U.S. share of electric and hybrid vehicle sales increased in the second quarter of 2024

The share of electric and hybrid vehicle sales in the United States increased in the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24) after a slight decline in 1Q24. Combined U.S. sales of hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased from 17.8% of total new light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales in 1Q24 to 18.7% in 2Q24, according to estimates from Wards Intelligence.

Midwest refinery outages increase regional gasoline prices

A series of refinery outages in Chicago and Ohio have generally increased Midwest prices for petroleum products relative to the U.S. average, particularly gasoline. The outages reflect an unusual decline in refining activity near the end of the high-demand summer season and have drawn down regional inventories.

Permian production forecast growth driven by well productivity, pipeline capacity

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that crude oil production in the United States will grow to an average of 13.7 million barrels per day (b/d) and marketed natural gas production will grow to an average of 114.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025. Most of the forecast growth in oil and natural gas production comes from the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico, where we expect productivity gains, new and expanded infrastructure, and high crude oil prices will support rising production.

Average state tax rates for retail gasoline and diesel fuel flat since January 2024

As of July 1, 2024, state taxes and fees on gasoline and diesel fuel averaged $0.33 per gallon (gal) of gasoline and $0.35/gal of diesel fuel, according to our federal and state motor fuel taxes table. Since January 2024, both the gasoline and diesel average taxes have remained nearly flat, increasing less than half of one cent each.

U.S. power grid added 20.2 GW of generating capacity in the first half of 2024

According to our latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, developers and power plant owners added 20.2 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale electric generating capacity in the United States during the first half of 2024. This new capacity is 3.6 GW (21%) more than the capacity added during the first six months of 2023. Based on the most recently reported data, developers and owners expect to add another 42.6 GW of capacity in the second half of the year.

Initial cargo of liquefied natural gas ships from Mexico

The developer of the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility in Mexico shipped an initial cargo this month, with the LNG sailing via the Panama Canal to Mexico’s LNG import terminal in Baja California Sur. Developer New Fortress Energy produced the LNG aboard an offshore Floating LNG (FLNG) production vessel with a capacity to liquefy up to 0.199 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas—one of two FLNG production units that are part of the Fast LNG Altamira export project on the east coast of Mexico. U.S. natural gas delivered via the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipeline supplies the project.

Diesel consumption falls in China due to reduced economic activity and fuel substitution

Our estimates of diesel consumption in China totaled 3.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in June 2024, a decline of 11% from the same month last year and the largest year-over-year decline in consumption for any month since July 2021.

China’s natural gas consumption, production, and imports all increased in 2023

In 2023, 7%, or 2.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), more natural gas was consumed in China than in 2022, after a decline of 1.1% in 2022 when economic growth was slower, mainly due to China’s zero-COVID policies, leading to a reduction in natural gas consumption.