EIA projects non-OECD Asia to become the largest importers of natural gas by 2050
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021), we project that non-OECD countries in Asia will collectively become the largest importers of natural gas by 2050. In 2020, the countries of OECD Europe were collectively the largest importers of natural gas, followed by Japan and South Korea combined, and then non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India.
Drilling and completion improvements support Permian Basin hydrocarbon production
The Permian Basin, which spans western Texas and eastern New Mexico, represents the most prolific hydrocarbon production region in the United States. They accounted for about 30% of U.S. crude oil production and 14% of U.S. natural gas production (measured as gross withdrawals) in 2020. Technology innovations, such as longer lateral wells and multi-well pad drilling, has helped reduce costs and increase productivity in developing oil and natural gas resources in the Permian Basin.
Tags: natural gas, Texas, liquid fuels, oil/petroleum, states, New Mexico, map
Annual U.S. coal-fired electricity generation will increase for the first time since 2014
We expect 22% more U.S. coal-fired generation in 2021 than in 2020, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The U.S. electric power sector has been generating more electricity from coal-fired power plants this year as a result of significantly higher natural gas prices and relatively stable coal prices. This year, 2021, will yield the first year-over-year increase in coal generation in the United States since 2014.
Renewables will account for most global generation increases, but coal use remains high
In the Reference case of our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021), where we assume current laws and regulations continue into the future, we project that renewable resources—particularly solar and wind—will be the largest contributor to the growth in electricity generation through 2050. However, certain regions will still mainly use coal resources for electricity generation.
U.S. natural gas prices likely to remain elevated through the winter
In our October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that natural gas spot prices at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub will average $5.67 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) between October and March, the highest winter price since 2007–2008. The increase in Henry Hub prices in recent months and in our forecast reflect below-average storage levels heading into the winter heating season and strong demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), even though we’ve seen relatively slow growth in U.S. natural gas production. We expect Henry Hub prices will decrease after the first quarter of 2022, as production growth outpaces growth in LNG exports, and will average $4.01/MMBtu for the year.
EIA expects U.S. households to spend more on energy this winter
In our Winter Fuels Outlook, to be released later today, we forecast that U.S. households will spend more money on energy this winter than last winter, especially households that primarily heat with propane or heating oil. Forecast expenditures are based on our expectations of high retail energy prices—many are already at multiyear highs—and of slightly more energy consumption per household than in the previous winter. Notably, many energy prices reached multiyear lows last year as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Azerbaijan has increased natural gas production and added a connection to Europe
Azerbaijan, a Eurasian country at the border of Eastern Europe and western Asia, increased its production of natural gas by 36%, or more than 200 billion cubic feet (Bcf), between 2017 and 2019. In addition, a new pipeline connection, completed in October 2020, increased the country’s access to European markets, according to our analysis of Azerbaijan’s energy sector.
U.S. gasoline exports in May, June, and July reach new seasonal highs
Note: Gasoline exports include combined exports of finished motor gasoline and motor gasoline blending components.
Motor gasoline exports from the United States reached record highs in May, June, and July for each of these months, according to our Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). Summer exports in May, June, and July reflect a departure from the historical seasonality of gasoline exports because gasoline export levels are usually low during the summer.
Tags: gasoline, exports/imports, liquid fuels, oil/petroleum
EIA projects nearly 50% increase in world energy use by 2050, led by growth in renewables
Note: Petroleum and other liquids includes biofuels.
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Reference case, we project that, absent significant changes in policy or technology, global energy consumption will increase nearly 50% over the next 30 years. Although petroleum and other liquid fuels will remain the world’s largest energy source in 2050, renewable energy sources, which include solar and wind, will grow to nearly the same level.
EIA projects accelerating renewable consumption and steady liquid fuels growth to 2050
Note: Petroleum and other liquids includes biofuels.
Today we released our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021). In the IEO2021 Reference case, which assumes current laws and regulations, we project that strong economic growth and growing populations will drive increases in global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption through 2050. Much of the increase in energy consumption will be met with liquid fuels and renewable energy sources. Natural gas- and coal-fired generation technologies as well as the emerging use of batteries will also prompt increased consumption.