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In-brief analysis
Jan 24, 2025

New solar plants expected to support most U.S. electric generation growth

U.S. monthly electric power generating capacity - electric power sector

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January 2025
Note: Capacity values represent the amount of generating capacity at utility-scale power plants (greater than 1 megawatt). Other renewables include geothermal, waste biomass, wood biomass, and pumped storage hydropower.

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect that U.S. renewable capacity additions—especially solar—will continue to drive the growth of U.S. power generation over the next two years. We expect U.S. utilities and independent power producers will add 26 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity to the U.S. electric power sector in 2025 and 22 GW in 2026. Last year, the electric power sector added a record 37 GW of solar power capacity to the electric power sector, almost double 2023 solar capacity additions. We forecast wind capacity additions will increase by around 8 GW in 2025 and 9 GW in 2026, slight increases from the 7 GW added in 2024.

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In-depth analysis
Jan 23, 2025

EIA expects higher wholesale U.S. natural gas prices as demand increases

monthly henry hub natural gas prices

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January 2025
Data values: Energy Prices and U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions

We expect increases in the Henry Hub natural gas price in 2025 and 2026 as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply, driven mainly by more demand from U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, reducing the natural gas in storage compared with the last two years. In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to increase in 2025 to average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and in 2026 to average $4.00/MMBtu from the record low set in 2024.

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In-brief analysis
Jan 22, 2025

U.S. retail gasoline prices to decrease in 2025 and 2026 with lower crude oil price

U.S. annual average retail gasoline price by region

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook, we now forecast U.S. retail gasoline prices through the end of 2026. We estimate U.S. average gasoline prices in 2025 will decrease by 11 cents per gallon (gal), or about 3%, compared with 2024. In 2026, we forecast a further decrease of about 18 cents/gal, or an additional 6%. The lower U.S. gasoline prices are primarily a result of lower crude oil prices, as well as decreasing gasoline consumption in 2026 because of increasing fleetwide fuel economy. Decreasing U.S. refinery capacity over the forecast period may offset some of the downward pressure of lower crude oil prices on gasoline prices.

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In-depth analysis
Jan 21, 2025

EIA forecasts lower oil price in 2025 amid significant market uncertainties

quarterly world petroleum production and consumption

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January 2025

We forecast benchmark Brent crude oil prices will fall from an average of $81 per barrel (b) in 2024 to $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, as strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices and help offset heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restraint from OPEC+ members. This forecast was completed before the United States issued additional sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector on January 10, which have the potential to reduce Russia’s oil exports to the global market.

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In-brief analysis
Jan 17, 2025

A look back at our forecast for global crude oil prices in 2024

monthly Brent crude oil spot price

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January 2024 and January 2025

Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $81 per barrel (b) in 2024, in line with the $82/b for the year that we had forecast in our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and more in-depth analysis. In the January 2024 STEO, we forecast that markets would be relatively balanced in 2024, changing little from the 2023 average Brent price of $82/b. On an annual basis, our forecast for balanced markets was relatively accurate, as global inventories showed only a slight drawdown of 0.18 million barrels per day in 2024.

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In-brief analysis
Jan 16, 2025

U.S. wholesale electricity prices were lower and less volatile in 2024

monthly average wholesale electricity price at selected trading hubs

Data source: S&P Capital IQ

Average wholesale electricity prices at major trading hubs in the Lower 48 states were lower in 2024 than in 2023. In addition, prices were much less volatile than they have been over the last few years. Lower and more stable electricity prices in 2024 were mostly driven by low natural gas prices, as well as increases in generation for some lower cost renewable energy sources and new battery storage capacity.

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In-brief analysis
Jan 15, 2025

EIA extends five key energy forecasts through December 2026

annual U.S. electricity consumption

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January 2025

In our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook, which includes data and forecasts through December 2026, we forecast five key energy trends that we expect will help shape markets over the next two years.

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In-brief analysis
Jan 14, 2025

Natural gas vehicle fuel prices rose in 2022 and 2023 after a decade of relative stability

real natural gas vehicle fuel prices, selected states

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, State Energy Data System
Note: Real prices are adjusted for inflation with the Consumer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

After a decade of nearly flat prices from 2011 to 2021, inflation-adjusted fuel prices for natural gas vehicles increased in 37 states from 2021 to 2023, according to new estimates in our State Energy Data System (SEDS). Real U.S. natural gas prices for vehicle fuel remained 25% below their peak in 2008.

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In-brief analysis
Jan 13, 2025

The eighth U.S. liquefied natural gas export terminal, Plaquemines LNG, ships first cargo

United States liquefied natural gas export facilities, existing and under construction

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Liquefaction Capacity File; trade press
Note: Bcf/d=billion cubic feet per day; LNG=liquefied natural gas

On December 26, 2024, Plaquemines LNG—the eighth liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal in the United States—shipped its first cargo after achieving first LNG production in mid-December. Plaquemines LNG is one of two U.S. LNG export terminals that started LNG production in 2024. Corpus Christi Stage 3 (an expansion of the existing Corpus Christi LNG export terminal) also began LNG production in December 2024.

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In-brief analysis
Jan 10, 2025

Since the 2011 Fukushima accident, Japan has restarted 14 nuclear reactors

Japan nuclear reactor annual restarts

Data source: Japan Nuclear Regulation Authority

Japanese utilities restarted two additional nuclear reactors in 2024 that had been suspended from operations in response to the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident, taking the total number of restarted reactors to 14 since the accident. In November, Tohoku Electric Power Co. restarted its 796-megawatt (MW) Onagawa Unit 2 reactor, and in December Chugoku Electric Power Co. restarted its Shimane Unit 2 (789 MW). Onagawa is the nuclear power plant located closest to the epicenter of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

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In-brief analysis
Jan 8, 2025

Spot Henry Hub natural gas prices hit a historic low in 2024

monthly and annual average Henry Hub real natural gas spot price

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on nominal prices from Refinitiv Eikon and adjusted for inflation using the November 2024 Consumer Price Index

In 2024, the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.21 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest average annual price in inflation-adjusted dollars ever reported. The annual average Henry Hub natural gas spot price in 2024 decreased by 16% from its 2023 average and 68% from its 2022 average, the largest two-year decline on record. The monthly average Henry Hub spot natural gas price in 2024 ranged from $3.25/MMBtu in January to an all-time low of $1.51/MMBtu in March, reflecting a narrower $1.74/MMBtu range of monthly prices across the year than the average range of $2.32/MMBtu over the prior five years.

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In-brief analysis
Jan 7, 2025

In 2024, U.S. retail gasoline prices averaged about 20 cents less than in 2023

U.S. average weekly retail gasoline prices (2024)

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Note: Retail price is for all formulations of regular grade gasoline.

The U.S. retail price for regular grade gasoline averaged $3.30 per gallon (gal) in 2024, $0.21/gal less than in 2023. Lower crude oil prices and narrower refinery margins in 2024 than in 2023 both contributed to the decrease in U.S. retail gasoline prices, according to data from our Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. From the first week of 2024 through the last week, national average weekly gasoline prices decreased $0.08/gal.

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In-brief analysis
Jan 6, 2025

Brent crude oil prices traded in a narrow range in 2024

Brent crude oil daily front-month futures closing prices

Data source: Bloomberg, L.P.
Note: A front-month contract is a futures contract that is the closest to expiration.

Benchmark Brent crude oil futures prices averaged $80 per barrel (b) in 2024, $2/b less than in 2023. Intraday prices stayed within a $24/b range, between $68/b and $93/b (after rounding), which was the narrowest trading range since 2019. Adjusting the trading range for inflation, last year was the narrowest since 2003. Strong global growth in production of oil and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices, while heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restrictions among OPEC+ members supported them. These offsetting factors kept oil prices within a narrow range.

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In-brief analysis
Jan 3, 2025

China imported record amounts of crude oil in 2023

From December 26 to January 3, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2024. Today’s article was originally published on April 16.

China annual crude oil imports
Data source: China General Administration of Customs, as compiled by Bloomberg L.P.

China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, imported 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil in 2023, 10% more than in 2022, according to China customs data. Refiners in China imported record volumes of crude oil in 2023 to supply the country’s increasing refining capacity in order to support the country’s transportation fuel needs and produce feedstocks for its growing petrochemical industry.

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In-brief analysis
Jan 2, 2025

Commercial electricity demand grew fastest in states with rapid computing facility growth

From December 26 to January 3, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2024. Today’s article was originally published on June 28.

U.S. states change in commercial sector electricity consumption (2019-2023)

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electricity Data Browser

Consumption of electricity in the U.S. commercial sector has recovered from pandemic levels, with annual U.S. sales of electricity to commercial customers in 2023 totaling 14 billion kilowatthours (BkWh), or 1%, more than in 2019. However, the growth in commercial demand for electricity is concentrated in a handful of states experiencing rapid development of large-scale computing facilities such as data centers. Electricity demand has grown the most in Virginia, which added 14 BkWh, and Texas, which added 13 BkWh. Based on our expectation that regional electricity demand will grow, we revised our forecasts upward for commercial electricity demand through 2025 in our June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

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