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Jan 28, 2020

U.S. biomass-based diesel tax credit renewed through 2022 in government spending bill

biomass-based diesel production
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA Moderated Transaction System

The U.S. government spending bill signed into law in late December 2019 included several provisions related to federal energy programs. Among these provisions was the reinstatement of a $1.00 per gallon biodiesel mixture credit, commonly referred to as the biodiesel tax credit (BTC). The BTC applies to both biodiesel and renewable diesel (referred to as biomass-based diesel) through 2022. The credit was also retroactively applied to 2018 and 2019.

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Jan 27, 2020

EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will keep growing through 2021, but more slowly

monthly U.S. crude oil production by region
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2020

In the January 2020 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020, a 9% increase from 2019 production levels, and 13.7 million b/d in 2021, a 3% increase from 2020.

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Jan 24, 2020

U.S. crude oil production efficiency continues year-over-year improvements

first month oil production per new well in select DPR regions
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Drilling Productivity Report (DPR)

U.S. oil production from tight formations increased in 2019, accounting for 64% of total U.S. crude oil production. This share grew because of the increasing productivity of new wells that were brought online during 2019. Since 2007, the average first full month of oil production from new wells in regions tracked by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) has increased. The growing initial production rates have helped oil production from tight formations to increase despite the slowdowns in drilling activity when oil prices fell between 2015 and 2016. Since 2017, recovering oil prices and more efficient production from new wells have helped producers cover costs of drilling, production, and the development of new technologies.

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Jan 23, 2020

EIA expects U.S. net natural gas exports to almost double by 2021

U.S. monthly natural gas trade
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Monthly and Short-Term Energy Outlook

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on January 14, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. natural gas exports will exceed natural gas imports by an average 7.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2020 (2.0 Bcf/d higher than in 2019) and 8.9 Bcf/d in 2021. Growth in U.S. net exports is led primarily by increases in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and pipeline exports to Mexico. Net natural gas exports more than doubled in 2019, compared with 2018, and EIA expects that they will almost double again by 2021 from 2019 levels.

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Jan 22, 2020

EIA projects less than a quarter of the world’s electricity generated from coal by 2050

net electricity generation by fuel
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019), global electric power generation from renewable sources will increase more than 20% throughout the projection period (2018–2050), providing almost half of the world’s electricity generation in 2050. In that same period, global coal-fired generation will decrease 13%, representing only 22% of the generation mix in 2050. EIA projects that worldwide electricity generation will grow by 1.8% per year through 2050.

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Jan 21, 2020

EIA forecasts crude oil prices will fall in the first half of 2020, then rise through 2021

West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil prices
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2020

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $65 per barrel (b) in 2020 and $68/b in 2021 and that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price will average $59/b in 2020 and $62/b in 2021.

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Jan 17, 2020

EIA expects U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions to decrease annually through 2021

U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2020

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on January 14, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts year-over-year decreases in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions through 2021. After decreasing by 2.1% in 2019, energy-related CO2 emissions will decrease by 2.0% in 2020 and again by 1.5% in 2021 for a third consecutive year of declines.

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Jan 16, 2020

EIA forecasts slower growth in natural gas-fired generation while renewable energy rises

annual U.S. electric power sector generation by energy source
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2020

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on January 14, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that generation from natural gas-fired power plants in the electric power sector will grow by 1.3% in 2020. This growth rate would be the slowest growth rate in natural gas generation since 2017. EIA forecasts that generation from nonhydropower renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, will grow by 15% in 2020—the fastest rate in four years. Forecast generation from coal-fired power plants declines by 13% in 2020.

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Jan 15, 2020

EIA expects lower natural gas prices in 2020 as production outpaces demand

monthly Henry Hub natural gas spot prices
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2020

Updated January 22 to correct the natural gas consumption graph.

In its January 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that average U.S. natural gas prices will be 9% lower in 2020 than in 2019. EIA expects lower natural gas prices will be the result of continued production growth primarily in response to the following factors:

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Jan 14, 2020

New electric generating capacity in 2020 will come primarily from wind and solar

planned U.S. electric generating capacity additions
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest inventory of electric generators, EIA expects 42 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity additions to start commercial operation in 2020. Solar and wind represent almost 32 GW, or 76%, of these additions. Wind accounts for the largest share of these additions at 44%, followed by solar and natural gas at 32% and 22%, respectively. The remaining 2% comes from hydroelectric generators and battery storage.

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