Outlook on Global Refining to 2028
August 2024
Overview
In 2023, global refining capacity was estimated at 103.5 million barrels per day (b/d)1. With recent structural changes to world petroleum markets in reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, there is increased interest in how much refinery capacity may enter service within the next few years to meet rising demand. This analysis looks at several major refinery investments with plans to enter service through 2028, their collective refined product output, and their meaning for global crude oil and refined product trade. The bulk of planned growth in refined product output is in the Asia-Pacific (mostly China and India) and the Middle East. We estimate that between 2.6 million barrels b/d and 4.9 million b/d of refining capacity will come online over 2024–28.
Our analysis discusses only projects with reasonable expectations of coming online within the next four years, based on project announcements. Because of the inherent uncertainty of all refinery projects, we estimate a wide range of capacity could enter service by 2028. Refinery projects are regularly delayed because of financing, crude oil supply agreements, logistics, unit testing, stockpiling operational inventories, and other factors that complicate the start-up of new facilities.