Analysis & Projections

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Fuel economy improvements are projected to reduce future gasoline use

AEOenergy efficiencygasolineliquid fuelsoil/petroleumtransportation

EIA expects natural gas to be largest source of U.S. electricity generation this summer

STEOelectricityelectricity generating fuel mixgenerationhydroelectricnatural gasweather

Projected carbon dioxide emissions are sensitive to factors driving fossil fuel use

AEOCO2coalemissionsliquid fuelsnatural gasoil/petroleumpricesresources

Liquefied natural gas exports expected to drive growth in U.S. natural gas trade

AEOLNGexports/importsnatural gas

EIA’s short-term global oil demand outlook considers the role of economic activity

internationalliquid fuelsoil/petroleum

Projected electricity generation mix is sensitive to policies, natural gas prices

AEOelectricityenvironmentgenerationnatural gaspricesresources

Tight oil expected to make up most of U.S. oil production increase through 2040

liquid fuelsoil/petroleumproduction/supplytight oil

U.S. coal production and coal-fired electricity generation expected to rise in near term

coalelectricitygenerationnatural gasproduction/supply

Natural gas-fired generating capacity likely to increase over next two years

STEOcoalelectricityelectricity generating fuel mixgenerating capacitygenerationnatural gasretirements

Global crude oil balances expected to tighten through 2018

STEOcrude oilinternationalliquid fuels

Natural gas prices in 2017 and 2018 are expected to be higher than last year

STEOnatural gasprices

EIA’s AEO2017 projects the United States to be a net energy exporter in most cases

AEO

Winter residential electricity consumption expected to increase from last winter

consumption/demandelectricityresidentialweather

Recent OPEC agreement reflected in EIA forecast issued earlier this week

BrentOPECSTEOWTIoil/petroleumprices

Heating oil expenditures expected to increase 38% this winter, but remain below normal

NortheastSTEOcrude oildistillate fuelheating oilprices

Winter Fuels Outlook projects higher domestic natural gas demand and prices

consumption/demandprices

Winter heating bills likely to increase, but still remain below recent winters

HGLSTEOelectricityexports/importsheating oilnatural gaspricespropaneweather

California program encourages adoption of zero-emissions vehicles

AEOAEO2016Californiaelectricitystatestransportationvehicles

Composition of trade influences goods output, shaping industrial sector energy intensity

AEOAEO2016exports/importsindustrial

World tight oil production to more than double from 2015 to 2040

AEOAEO2016AustraliaCanadaColombiaIEOMexicoRussiaUnited Statesinternationalproduction/supplytight oil

Renewables share of North America electricity mix expected to rise

AEOAEO2016CanadaIEOMexicoUnited Stateselectricitygenerationinternationalnuclearrenewablesstandards

Changes in steel production reduce energy intensity

AEOAEO2016manufacturing

Retail price of regular gasoline forecast to average $2.25 per gallon this summer

STEOgasolineliquid fuelsoil/petroleumprices

EIA projects rise in U.S. crude oil and other liquid fuels production beyond 2017

AEOAEO2016HGLNGLUnited Statesbiofuelscrude oilliquid fuelsoil/petroleumpricesproduction/supply

Clean Power Plan reduces projected coal production in all major U.S. supply regions

AEOAEO2016coalstandards

Extended policies case shows reduced energy use, emissions, more renewables, efficiency

AEOAEO2016efficiencyelectricityemissionssolarstandardswind

Proposed standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles would reduce diesel consumption

AEOAEO2016dieselgasolinetransportation

Clean Power Plan implementation decisions affect CO2 emissions and electricity prices

AEOAEO2016CO2electricitygeneration

Clean Power Plan accelerates the growth of renewable generation throughout United States

AEOAEO2016coalnatural gasnuclearrenewablessolarwind

Total U.S. electricity sales projected to grow slowly as electricity intensity declines

commercialelectricityindustrialresidentialtransportation

Most natural gas production growth is expected to come from shale gas and tight oil plays

LNGexports/importsnatural gasproduction/supplyshale

Higher renewable capacity additions in AEO2016 reflect policy changes and cost reductions

capacityelectricitygenerationrenewables

U.S. retail gasoline prices lowest since 2009 ahead of Memorial Day weekend

BrentSTEOgasolineprices

Industrial and electric power sectors drive projected growth in U.S. natural gas use

commercialexports/importsindustrialnatural gasresidential

Future power sector carbon dioxide emissions depend on status of Clean Power Plan

CO2coalelectricityemissions

Projected growth in CO2 emissions driven by countries outside the OECD

CO2IEOemissionsinternational

EIA projects 48% increase in world energy consumption by 2040

IEOcoalexports/importsliquid fuelsnatural gasnuclearrenewables

EIA's global crude supply outlook considers planned and unplanned production outages

CanadaIranOPECSTEOSyriaVenezuelacrude oiloil/petroleumprices

Annual passenger travel tends to increase with wealth

internationaltransportationvehicles

Retail gasoline prices this summer expected to be lowest since 2004

gasolineliquid fuelsprices

Short-Term Outlook for Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids

HGLSTEOethanepropane

EIA lowers its crude oil price forecast

BrentSTEOWTIcrude oiloil/petroleumprices

Canada, Mexico, United States launch North American Cooperation on Energy Information site

CanadaMexicoUnited Statesinternational

Electricity generation from renewable sources expected to grow 9% this year

STEObiomasselectricitygeothermalhydroelectricrenewablessolarwind

Warmer weather, lower energy prices are reducing home heating expenditures

HGLSTEOelectricityheating oilnatural gaspricespropaneweather

EIA forecasts that the United States will be a net exporter of natural gas in mid 2017

LNGMexicoSTEOexports/importsnatural gas

Crude oil prices will remain relatively low through 2016 and 2017

BrentSTEOWTIoil/petroleumprices

Marine Fuel Choice For Ocean Going Vessels Within Emission Control Areas

LNGNEMSemissionsmarine transportationtransportation

Under the proposed Clean Power Plan, natural gas, then renewables, gain generation share

CO2EPAelectricityemissionsgeneration

Power generation from coal and natural gas expected to temporarily converge this spring

STEOcoalelectricityhydroelectricnatural gasnuclearrenewables

Total energy subsidies decline since 2010, with changes in support across fuel types

biofuelscoalelectricityliquid fuelsnatural gasnuclearoil/petroleumsolarwind

Recent Data

Price summary (historical and forecast)
2015 2016 2017 2018
WTI Crude Oila
dollars per barrel		 48.67 43.33 50.78 53.61
Brent Crude Oil
dollars per barrel		 52.32 43.74 52.69 55.61
Gasolineb
dollars per gallon		 2.43 2.15 2.38 2.43
Dieselc
dollars per gallon		 2.71 2.31 2.66 2.81
Heating Oild
dollars per gallon		 2.65 2.10 2.53 2.69
Natural Gasd
dollars per thousand cubic feet		 10.36 10.06 11.02 11.19
Electricityd
cents per kilowatthour		 12.65 12.55 13.04 13.48
aWest Texas Intermediate.
bAverage regular pump price.
Note: Italics indicate forecast.
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook 		cOn-highway retail.
dU.S. Residential average.

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International Energy Outlook 2016
Adam Sieminski, Administrator
May 11, 2016

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