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Growing global production limits crude oil price increases in the most recent forecast

quarterly world liquid fuels production and consumption
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

In the June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that rising global production of petroleum and other liquid fuels (driven by OPEC, Russia, and the United States) will limit price increases for global crude oil benchmarks Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI). We forecast production will increase more rapidly than consumption, ending the large global stock draws seen in the first two quarters of 2021 and limiting upward crude oil price movement.

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