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Natural Gas Weekly Update

for week ending February 28, 2024   |  Release date:  February 29, 2024   |  Next release:  March 7, 2024   |   Previous weeks

JUMP TO: Prices | Supply and Demand | Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) | Rig Count | Storage | Other Market Drivers

Today in Energy

Recent Today in Energy analysis of natural gas markets is available on the EIA website.

Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, February 28, 2024)

Prices

  • Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 3 cents from $1.60 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.63/MMBtu yesterday.
  • Henry Hub futures price: The March 2024 NYMEX contract expired Tuesday at $1.615/MMBtu, down 16 cents from last Wednesday. The April 2024 NYMEX contract price increased to $1.885/MMBtu, up 2 cents from last Wednesday to yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging April 2024 through March 2025 futures contracts climbed 9 cents to $2.817/MMBtu.
  • Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot price changes were mixed this report week (Wednesday, February 21, to Wednesday, February 28), falling in West Coast markets and rising in most other markets. Price changes ranged from a decrease of $0.72/MMBtu at PG&E Citygate to an increase of $0.15/MMBtu at Eastern Gas South. Prices across the United States were below $2.50/MMBtu on Wednesday at all major markets.
    • Natural gas prices in the Northeast increased this report week (Wednesday-to-Wednesday) with forecasts of colder temperatures today. Despite this, there was a 17% (4.8 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) decrease in natural gas consumption for the entire week and prices remained low through most of the week. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went up 11 cents from $2.35/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.46/MMBtu yesterday, after reaching a weekly low of $1.49/MMBtu on Monday. Near Appalachian Basin producing activities, the Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus price increased 14 cents from $1.25/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.39/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Eastern Gas South in southwest Pennsylvania rose 15 cents from $1.24/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.39/MMBtu yesterday. In the Northeast, natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors decreased 25% (4.0 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, because of lower demand for space heating. Natural gas production in the Northeast decreased by 3% (1.1 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
    • Prices across the West Coast declined this week. At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main natural gas pricing point in the Pacific Northwest, the price fell 40 cents from $1.89/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.49/MMBtu yesterday. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 71 cents, down from $2.92/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.21/MMBtu yesterday. In Southern California, the price at SoCal Citygate decreased 35 cents from $2.61/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.26/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in the Western region decreased 3% (0.4 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. In addition, relatively high natural gas storage inventories are contributing to lower prices on the West Coast for this time of year. For the week ending February 23, Pacific region natural gas storage reached 217 Bcf, 36% higher than the five-year (2019–2023) average, according to our Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report.
    • In West Texas, the price at the Waha Hub, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, fell 33 cents this report week, from $0.76/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.43/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha Hub traded $1.20 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared to last Wednesday when it traded 84 cents below the Henry Hub price. On February 26, El Paso Natural Gas Company extended the force majeure declared on February 19 on Line 2000 to address repairs downstream from the Casa C compressor station in Pinal County, Arizona. Since February 19, westbound operational capacity through the Gila constraint has been reduced by 48% (0.6 Bcf/d), and operational capacity through the Casa C constraint has been reduced by 58% (0.3 Bcf/d).

    Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

  • International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices decreased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia fell 39 cents to a weekly average of $8.26/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands fell 11 cents to a weekly average of $7.64/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending March 1, 2023), the prices were $14.76/MMBtu in East Asia and $15.10/MMBtu at TTF.
  • Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 16 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.46/MMBtu for the week ending February 28. Ethane prices rose 8% week over week, while natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel fell 1%, raising the ethane to natural gas premium by 17%. The ethylene spot price was unchanged week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane fell 4% this report week. Average weekly propane prices fell 5%, while Brent crude oil prices fell 2%, increasing the propane discount to crude oil by 6%. Normal butane and isobutane prices each fell 5% week over week, and natural gasoline prices remained essentially unchanged.
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Supply and Demand

  • Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 1.8% (2.0 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 1.1% (1.1 Bcf/d) to average 102.7 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada decreased by 15.5% (0.8 Bcf/d) from last week.
  • Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 13.3% (12.9 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Residential and commercial sector consumption declined by 24.9% (9.9 Bcf/d) week over week as temperatures were higher this report week compared with last report week. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 6.0% (1.9 Bcf/d), and industrial sector consumption decreased by 4.4% (1.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 1.4% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 13.9 Bcf/d, or 0.3 Bcf/d higher than last week.
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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

  • Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased by 2.2% (0.3 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 13.9 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 3.6% (0.3 Bcf/d) to 9.0 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas were essentially unchanged at 3.7 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were flat week over week at 1.2 Bcf/d.
  • Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-six LNG vessels (nine from Sabine Pass; four each from Cameron, Corpus Christi, and Freeport; three from Calcasieu Pass; and two from Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 97 Bcf departed the United States between February 22 and February 28, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
  • LNG Terminals: Repair work at Freeport LNG that began after the January 2024 winter storm will continue for approximately two more weeks.
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Rig Count

  • According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, February 20, the natural gas rig count decreased by 1 rig from a week ago to 120 rigs, as the Utica dropped 1 rig. The number of oil-directed rigs increased by 6 rigs from a week ago to 503 rigs. The Granite Wash added one rig, the Permian added two rigs, and three rigs were added among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 3 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 626 rigs, 127 fewer rigs than last year at this time.
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Storage

  • The net withdrawals from storage totaled 96 Bcf for the week ending February 23, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net withdrawals of 143 Bcf and last year's net withdrawals of 79 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,374 Bcf, which is 498 Bcf (27%) more than the five-year average and 248 Bcf (12%) more than last year at this time.
  • According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net withdrawals of 78 Bcf to 96 Bcf, with a median estimate of 86 Bcf.
  • The average rate of withdrawals from storage is 18% lower than the five-year average so far in the withdrawal season (November through March). If the rate of withdrawals from storage matched the five-year average of 6.6 Bcf/d for the remainder of the withdrawal season, the total inventory would be 2,131 Bcf on March 31, which is 498 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 1,633 Bcf for that time of year.
More storage data and analysis can be found on the Natural Gas Storage Dashboard and the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report.

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See also:

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Natural gas spot prices
Spot Prices ($/MMBtu)
Thu,
22-Feb
Fri,
23-Feb
Mon,
26-Feb
Tue,
27-Feb
Wed,
28-Feb
Henry Hub 1.61 1.52 1.60 1.53 1.63
New York 1.50 1.52 1.37 1.40 1.59
Chicago 1.43 1.28 1.31 1.40 1.51
Cal. Comp. Avg.* 2.08 1.92 1.91 1.80 1.80
Futures ($/MMBtu)
March Contract 1.732 1.603 1.659 1.615 Expired
April Contract 1.832 1.699 1.744 1.808 1.885
May Contract 1.972 1.847 1.891 1.965 2.052
Data source: Natural Gas Intelligence and CME Group as compiled by Bloomberg, L.P.
*Avg. of NGI's reported prices for: Malin, PG&E Citygate, and Southern California Border Avg.
Natural gas futures prices
Natural gas liquids spot prices


U.S. natural gas supply - Gas Week: (2/22/24 - 2/28/24)
Average daily values (billion cubic feet)
this week
last week
last year
Marketed production
116.3
117.4
114.3
Dry production
102.7
103.8
101.3
Net Canada imports
4.6
5.5
5.3
LNG pipeline deliveries
0.1
0.2
0.1
Total supply
107.5
109.5
106.7

Data source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
Note: This table reflects any data revisions that may have occurred since the previous week's posting. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline deliveries represent natural gas sendout from LNG import terminals.

U.S. natural gas consumption - Gas Week: (2/22/24 - 2/28/24)
Average daily values (billion cubic feet)
this week
last week
last year
U.S. consumption
84.3
97.2
95.0
    Power
30.3
32.3
31.7
    Industrial
24.2
25.3
25.0
    Residential/commercial
29.8
39.6
38.4
Mexico exports
5.8
5.9
5.6
Pipeline fuel use/losses
7.2
7.8
7.8
LNG pipeline receipts
13.9
13.6
12.6
Total demand
111.1
124.5
121.0

Data source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
Note: This table reflects any data revisions that may have occurred since the previous week's posting. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline receipts represent pipeline deliveries to LNG export terminals.

Natural gas supply


Weekly natural gas rig count and average Henry Hub
Rigs
Tue, February 20, 2024
Change from
 
last week
last year
Oil rigs
503
1.2%
-16.2%
Natural gas rigs
120
-0.8%
-20.5%
Note: Excludes any miscellaneous rigs
Rig numbers by type
Tue, February 20, 2024
Change from
 
last week
last year
Vertical
16
23.1%
0.0%
Horizontal
560
0.0%
-19.2%
Directional
50
4.2%
13.6%
Data source: Baker Hughes Company


Working gas in underground storage
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
Region
2024-02-23
2024-02-16
change
East
453
505
-52
Midwest
600
631
-31
Mountain
169
173
-4
Pacific
217
217
0
South Central
935
944
-9
Total
2,374
2,470
-96
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Form EIA-912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.
Working gas in underground storage
Historical comparisons
Year ago
2/23/23
5-year average
2019-2023
Region
Stocks (Bcf)
% change
Stocks (Bcf)
% change
East
455
-0.4
409
10.8
Midwest
548
9.5
482
24.5
Mountain
100
69.0
100
69.0
Pacific
100
117.0
160
35.6
South Central
923
1.3
725
29.0
Total
2,126
11.7
1,876
26.5
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Form EIA-912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.


Temperature – heating & cooling degree days (week ending Feb 22)
 
HDDs
CDDs
Region
Current total
Deviation from normal
Deviation from last year
Current total
Deviation from normal
Deviation from last year
New England
259
7
76
0
0
0
Middle Atlantic
242
2
74
0
0
0
E N Central
225
-32
14
0
0
0
W N Central
218
-41
-42
0
0
0
South Atlantic
156
3
65
2
-6
-11
E S Central
151
1
53
0
-2
-4
W S Central
95
-5
10
4
0
-7
Mountain
188
-6
-43
0
-1
0
Pacific
104
5
-28
0
0
0
United States
181
-10
15
1
-1
-3
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: HDDs=heating degree days; CDDs=cooling degree days

   Average temperature (°F)


   7-day mean ending Feb 22, 2024

Mean Temperature (F) 7-Day Mean ending Feb 22, 2024

        Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

  Deviation between average and normal temperature (°F)


   7-day mean ending Feb 22, 2024

Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Feb 22, 2024

        Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration