Notable Forecast Changes
- EIA estimates that crude oil production in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) averaged 29.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in the third quarter of 2019, which is 0.5 million b/d lower than previously expected. The lower OPEC crude oil production reflects the September supply outages in Saudi Arabia that were caused by attacks on the country’s oil installations.
- EIA estimates that OPEC noncrude oil liquids production averaged 5.5 million b/d in the third quarter of 2019, up by almost 0.1 million from the September STEO. The upward revision occurred despite declining noncrude oil liquids production as a result of the attack in Saudi Arabia. EIA revised higher historical noncrude oil liquids estimates for a number of other OPEC countries, which offset declines in Saudi Arabia.
- EIA forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices will average $60 per barrel (b) in 2020, which is $2/b lower than forecast in the September STEO. The lower forecast crude oil prices reflects higher forecast global oil inventory builds in 2020.
- EIA forecasts jet fuel consumption will average 1.78 million b/d in 2020, which is 60,000 b/d (3.4%) lower than previously forecast. The lower forecast is the result of updates to EIA’s jet fuel model equation, which now includes U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) as the main explanatory variable. A decrease in the U.S. GDP growth in 2020 contributes to slowing growth in jet fuel consumption.
- EIA forecasts coal exports will total 75 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, which is 10 MMst (12%) lower than forecast in the September STEO. The lower forecast reflects the following:
- Declining demand in the Atlantic Basin coal market
- A surplus in Eastern European coal supply that is crowding out U.S. exports
- Logistical challenges, including the delay of Millennium Bulk Terminal in Washington State, which will allow Western coal to be competitively priced for export to Asian markets
- For more information, see the detailed table of STEO forecast changes.