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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: February 6, 2018  |  Next Release Date: March 6, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Notable Forecast Changes

  • EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 10.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018 and 11.2 million b/d in 2019, both of which are 0.3 million b/d higher than forecast in the January STEO. The higher production reflects both the incorporation of recently reported survey data that was higher than expected in the previous STEO and a higher crude oil price forecast. On January 31, EIA reported that total U.S. crude oil production in November 2017 was above 10.0 million b/d. This level was 170,000 b/d higher than EIA’s estimate of November production in the January STEO. The new data raised the level of crude oil production from which EIA bases its forecast. Additionally, EIA raised its forecast for WTI crude oil by about $7 per barrel during the first half of 2018. The higher WTI prices contribute to higher forecast rig counts and production in the Lower 48 onshore regions after about a six-month lag.
  • EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $3.20 per Million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018, which is 31 cents/MMBtu higher than forecast in the January STEO. The higher price forecast partly reflects record inventory draws during January 2018, which lowered expected storage levels through 2018 in the forecast.


Table: Changes in Forecast from Last Month

Forecast Change Tables (PDF)

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