Notable Forecast Changes

• EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $67 per barrel (b) in 2019, down about $3/b from last month’s STEO forecast. The lower 2019 price forecast largely reflects recent price declines in global crude oil prices, which lowered the starting point for EIA’s forecast, and uncertainty about global oil demand growth. Forecast global liquid fuels supply and consumption were both lowered by about 0.2-0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) for 2019 and for 2020. The lower global supply growth forecast is mostly the result of lower crude oil production growth in the United States because of lower expected oil prices and an expectation of increasing crude oil production declines in Venezuela. The reduction in global demand growth reflects both a revision to historical data that carries through to the forecast and lower oil consumption growth in 2019 because of reduction in forecast 2019 oil-weighted GDP growth among countries not part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

• For more information, see the detailed table of STEO forecast changes.