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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: November 6, 2018  |  Next Release Date: December 11, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Notable Forecast Changes

  • U.S. crude oil production is rising at a faster rate than EIA previously anticipated. Crude oil production reached a new monthly record of 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in August 2018, according to EIA’s latest Petroleum Supply Monthly, and surpassed 11 million b/d for the first time. August 2018 crude oil production was 290,000 b/d higher than expected in the October STEO. This higher level of production raised the baseline for EIA’s forecast for 2019 crude oil production, and EIA now expects U.S. crude oil production to average 12.1 million b/d in 2019, compared with a forecast of 11.8 million b/d in the October STEO.
  • EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $72 per barrel (b) in 2019, which is $3/b lower than previously forecast. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices to average $65/b in 2019, which is $5/b lower than previously forecast. The lower crude oil price forecasts are partly the result of higher expected crude oil production in the United States in the second half of 2018 and in 2019, which is expected to contribute to growth in global oil inventory and put downward pressure on crude oil prices.
  • Canadian oil production in July and August was higher than previously estimated, as updated analysis indicates that crude oil volumes EIA previously assumed were disrupted were online during those months. As a result, Canada’s total liquid fuels production for the third quarter of 2018 is more than 0.3 million b/d higher than estimated in the October STEO.


Table: Changes in Forecast from Last Month

Forecast Change Tables (PDF)

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