Notable Forecast Changes

• EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $62/b in 2021 and $60/b in 2022. The forecast for both years is $2/b higher than in the March STEO. The higher forecast reflects larger draws from global oil inventories in 2021, particularly in the second quarter, than previously expected, which will reduce global oil inventory levels through the forecast period. The larger draws are the result of lower expected OPEC crude oil production in the second quarter of 2021.

• EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 11.0 million b/d in 2021 and 11.9 million b/d in 2022. Compared with the March STEO, those forecasts are 0.1 million b/d and 0.2 million b/d lower, respectively. We are forecasting lower production despite higher expected crude oil prices (about $2/b higher in both 2021 and 2022) because we now forecast that rig activity in producing areas outside the Permian—such as Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Anadarko—will be lower than previously expected.

• This STEO incorporates EIA’s changes to its reporting of biofuels data. In STEO Table 4a, renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels. Beginning with January 2021 data, renewable fuels includes biodiesel, renewable diesel, renewable jet fuel, renewable heating oil, renewable naphtha and gasoline, and other renewable fuels. For December 2020 and prior, renewable fuels includes only biodiesel. Additionally, we are now reporting product supplied (a proxy for consumption) of renewable fuels excluding fuel ethanol. In STEO Table 4a consumption data, these data will be included in the "other oils" category.

• For more information, see the detailed table of forecast changes.