Notable Forecast Changes

• EIA forecasts that the Brent–West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price spread will average almost $7 per barrel (b) in 2018 and $6/b in 2019, compared with a forecast of about $5/b in both years in the May STEO. The wider spread reflects growing U.S. crude oil production, particularly in West Texas, that has led to transportation constraints between the U.S. Gulf Coast and both West Texas and Cushing, Oklahoma (the delivery point for the WTI crude oil futures contract). These transportation constraints reflect the current shortage of available pipeline capacity to meet the growing demand for moving crude oil from Cushing to the Gulf Coast.

• EIA forecasts crude oil production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will average 32.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018 and 32.1 million b/d in 2019. Those levels are 0.2 million b/d and 0.3 million b/d lower, respectively, than forecast in the May STEO. The lower forecast production levels reflect lower expected crude oil production in Venezuela and Iran.

• For more information, see the Detailed table of STEO forecast changes