Petroleum products

Retail gasoline prices
We forecast that this summer’s inflation-adjusted U.S. average regular gasoline price will be the lowest since 2020. The 2025 forecast summer average of about $3.10 per gallon (gal) is based on the average of the 2Q25 and 3Q25 U.S. regular gasoline price, when increased travel during the warmer months of the year puts upward pressure on gasoline prices. We expect gasoline prices will average near $3.20/gal in the summer of 2026. Compared with recent years, lower forecasted U.S. gasoline prices in 2025 and 2026 are mainly a result of lower crude oil prices. Although we expect crude oil prices will continue to fall in 2026, creating a downward effect on gasoline prices, that effect is offset by refinery closures and lower gasoline inventories, which cause refining margins for gasoline to rise.

This summer’s average gasoline price will fall below $3.50/gal for the first time since 2020, when the summer gasoline prices averaged $2.55/gal. Summer gasoline prices reached a decade high of $4.67/gal in 2022, decreasing in subsequent years.

U.S. propane inventories
We expect that China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods will have a large effect on U.S. propane markets, particularly prices and inventories. China is a major importer of U.S. propane, and China’s imports of U.S. propane grew by 40% last year. Propane demand in China has grown rapidly in recent years, reflecting a wave of new propane dehydrogenation units, which manufacture propane into propylene. In 2024, most of the propane imports into China originated from the United States (32%), followed by Iran (17%), Qatar (7%), and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (3%). Tariffs will limit China’s demand for U.S. propane exports. Although some propane previously exported to China will likely find new destinations, the reduction in demand from China will result in large propane inventory builds on the U.S. Gulf Coast and put downward pressure on the Mont Belvieu propane spot price.

Less world demand for U.S. propane will reduce Mont Belvieu prices, which we forecast will fall from $0.78/gal in 2024 to $0.76/gal in 2025 and $0.52/gal in 2026. Despite falling propane prices, field production of propane still grows in our forecast, albeit at a slower rate than in recent years, because crude oil and natural gas prices in our forecast are high enough to encourage some continued drilling in the United States. With lower global demand for U.S. propane, much of this growth in propane production will fill inventories. Compared with the March STEO, we now forecast U.S. propane inventories will rise significantly from April through October—the season when propane inventories typically build. We forecast U.S. propane inventories will increase by between 60 million and 65 million barrels during this period. During the past three years, inventories have risen between 40 million barrels and 50 million barrels during these months.