Short-Term Energy Outlook

Global liquid fuels

EIA forecasts that crude oil production in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will average 30.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019, down by 1.7 million b/d from 2018. In 2020, EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to fall by 0.4 million b/d to an average of 29.8 million b/d. Production in Venezuela and Iran account for most of the OPEC output declines in 2019 and in 2020, but EIA expects these declines to be partially offset by production increases from other OPEC members.

EIA forecasts global oil inventories will decline by 0.2 million b/d in 2019 and then increase by 0.1 million b/d in 2020. Global demand outpaces supply in 2019 in EIA’s forecast, but global liquid fuels supply then rises by 1.9 million b/d in 2020, with 1.5 million of that growth coming from the United States. Global oil demand rises by 1.5 million b/d in 2020 in the forecast, up from expected growth of 1.4 million b/d in 2019.

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
	2017	2018	2019projected	2020projected
^aWeighted by oil consumption. ^bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption	(million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production	60.76	63.38	65.69	68.16
OPEC Production	37.37	37.30	35.42	34.87
OPEC Crude Oil Portion	32.07	31.96	30.29	29.85
Total World Production	98.13	100.67	101.11	103.03
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)	2,844	2,860	2,870	2,905
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity	2.03	1.49	1.66	1.81
OECD Consumption	47.23	47.51	47.66	47.88
Non-OECD Consumption	51.23	52.48	53.70	55.01
Total World Consumption	98.46	99.98	101.36	102.89
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Product^a	3.2	3.1	2.3	2.9
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate^b	-0.8	0.6	0.9	-2.3

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Related Tables
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply	PDF
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply	PDF
Table 3d. World Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance	XLSX	PNG
Estimated unplanned crude oil production outages among OPEC and non-OPEC producers	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels consumption	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels consumption growth	XLSX	PNG
World crude oil and liquid fuels production	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption	XLSX	PNG
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity	XLSX	PNG
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)	XLSX	PNG

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