Global oil markets

Global oil prices
The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $64 per barrel (b) in November, which is $11/b lower than in November 2024. Crude oil prices continue to fall as growing crude oil production outweighs the effect of increased drone attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure, and the latest sanctions on Russia’s oil sector. We forecast that growing global oil production and lower demand over the winter will accelerate the accumulation of oil inventories, resulting in further crude oil price declines in the coming months. We forecast that the Brent price will drop to an average of $55/b in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) and will stay near that price for the rest of the year.

Strong global oil production growth has outpaced consumption in recent months, driving our assessment that global oil inventories have risen quickly in the second half of 2025. In 2026, we expect production and consumption to grow at similar rates, but production levels will continue to exceed consumption, further adding to inventories. We forecast that global oil inventory builds will exceed 2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, which is similar to this year’s increase. Persistent inventory builds could fill commercial storage options on land, which may prompt market participants to increasingly seek other, more expensive options for storing crude oil, such as floating storage. As a result, some of the crude oil price declines will likely reflect the higher marginal cost of storage.

Although we expect prices to fall in 2026, we assess that both OPEC+ policy and China’s continued inventory builds will limit declines. Given our expectation of substantial global oil inventory builds, we forecast OPEC+ will produce about 1.3 million b/d less than targeted production in 2026. On November 30, OPEC+ reaffirmed plans to keep production flat in the first quarter, but left open the potential for future adjustments. A large portion of oil inventory builds this year have been in strategic stockpiles in China, which has limited downward price pressures. We expect that China will continue building strategic stockpiles into 2026.

Global oil consumption and production

Forecast global liquid fuels consumption increases by 1.1 million b/d in 2025 and by 1.2 million b/d in 2026. Global liquid fuels consumption growth is driven almost entirely by non-OECD countries.

Most non-OECD growth is concentrated in Asia. We forecast total liquid fuels consumption in China increases by 250,000 b/d in 2025 and by an additional 300,000 b/d in 2026. We raised our forecast of 2026 oil consumption in China by 50,000 b/d from last month’s STEO due to upward revisions to expected GDP growth. We expect India will increase its liquid fuels consumption by 70,000 b/d this year and 170,000 b/d next year.

The Middle East is also a significant source of non-OECD demand growth, increasing by 170,000 b/d in 2025 and 100,000 b/d in 2026. We forecast total liquid fuels consumption in Africa increases by 240,000 b/d in 2025 and 150,000 b/d in 2026, led by strong growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Global liquid fuels production in our forecast increases by 3.0 million b/d in 2025 and by more than 1.2 million b/d in 2026. Along with OPEC+, the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada drive production growth in the forecast. Together these four countries contribute more than 50% (1.5 million b/d) of total global growth this year and about 60% (0.8 million b/d) in 2026. Production in South America has been the leading source of growth in 2025 as new offshore vessels have started up ahead of schedule in Brazil and Guyana, with additional projects still in development.