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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: May 8, 2018  |  Next Release Date: June 12, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global Liquid Fuels

  • For the 2018 April–September summer driving season, EIA forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.90/gallon (gal), 17 cents/gal higher than in last month’s STEO and up from an average of $2.41/gal last summer. The higher forecast gasoline prices are primarily the result of higher forecast crude oil prices. For the year 2018, EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.79/gal. Monthly average gasoline prices are forecast to reach a summer peak of $2.97/gal in June, before falling to $2.86/gal in September.
  • EIA forecasts that total crude oil and petroleum product net imports will fall from an annual average of 3.7 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 2.6 million b/d in 2018 and to 1.5 million b/d in 2019, which would be the lowest level of net imports since 1958.
  • EIA estimates global petroleum and other liquid fuels inventories declined by 0.5 million b/d in 2017. In this forecast, global inventories grow by 0.2 million b/d in 2018 and by 0.6 million b/d in 2019.
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2016201720182019
aWeighted by oil consumption.
bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 57.9558.7361.2363.13
OPEC Production 39.2339.2839.2239.51
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 32.6832.4432.2632.35
Total World Production 97.1998.01100.45102.64
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2,9852,8392,8813,015
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 1.152.091.761.34
OECD Consumption 46.7547.2347.7048.08
Non-OECD Consumption 50.1251.3052.5853.93
Total World Consumption 96.8798.52100.28102.01
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.83.23.43.3
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 2.2-0.8-3.2-0.9

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