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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: November 6, 2018  |  Next Release Date: December 11, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

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Global Liquid Fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $81 per barrel (b) in October, up $2/b from September. Despite the increase in monthly average prices, Brent spot prices declined from $85/b on October 1 to $75/b on October 31.
  • EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels inventories will remain flat in 2018, followed by an increase of 0.6 million b/d in 2019.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in September, up slightly from August levels. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 11.8 million b/d in 2019.

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

World liquid fuels consumption

World liquid fuels consumption growth

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

Estimated unplanned crude oil production among OPEC and non-OPEC producers

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity

OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2016201720182019
aWeighted by oil consumption.
bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 57.6358.4260.9863.36
OPEC Production 39.4039.2939.1138.79
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 32.8732.6832.5032.20
Total World Production 97.0397.71100.09102.14
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2,9942,8432,8673,005
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 1.152.091.551.21
OECD Consumption 46.8147.2347.6447.96
Non-OECD Consumption 50.1651.3252.4253.55
Total World Consumption 96.9898.55100.07101.51
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.83.13.22.9
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 2.3-0.80.30.3

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Related Tables
Table 2. Energy Prices PDF
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply PDF
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply PDF
Table 3d. World Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption PDF
Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance XLSX PNG
Estimated unplanned crude oil production outages among OPEC and non-OPEC producers XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption growth XLSX PNG
World crude oil and liquid fuels production XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption XLSX PNG
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity XLSX PNG
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply) XLSX PNG
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About the Short-Term Energy Outlook

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