Short-Term Energy Outlook

Global Liquid Fuels

For the 2018 April–September summer driving season, EIA forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.90/gallon (gal), 17 cents/gal higher than in last month’s STEO and up from an average of $2.41/gal last summer. The higher forecast gasoline prices are primarily the result of higher forecast crude oil prices. For the year 2018, EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.79/gal. Monthly average gasoline prices are forecast to reach a summer peak of $2.97/gal in June, before falling to $2.86/gal in September.

EIA forecasts that total crude oil and petroleum product net imports will fall from an annual average of 3.7 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 2.6 million b/d in 2018 and to 1.5 million b/d in 2019, which would be the lowest level of net imports since 1958.

EIA estimates global petroleum and other liquid fuels inventories declined by 0.5 million b/d in 2017. In this forecast, global inventories grow by 0.2 million b/d in 2018 and by 0.6 million b/d in 2019.

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
^aWeighted by oil consumption. ^bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption	(million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production	57.95	58.73	61.23	63.13
OPEC Production	39.23	39.28	39.22	39.51
OPEC Crude Oil Portion	32.68	32.44	32.26	32.35
Total World Production	97.19	98.01	100.45	102.64
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)	2,985	2,839	2,881	3,015
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity	1.15	2.09	1.76	1.34
OECD Consumption	46.75	47.23	47.70	48.08
Non-OECD Consumption	50.12	51.30	52.58	53.93
Total World Consumption	96.87	98.52	100.28	102.01
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Product^a	2.8	3.2	3.4	3.3
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate^b	2.2	-0.8	-3.2	-0.9

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Related Tables
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply	PDF
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply	PDF
Table 3d. World Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price	XLSX	PNG
World Liquid Fuels Production and Consumption Balance	XLSX	PNG
World Liquid Fuels Consumption	XLSX	PNG
World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth	XLSX	PNG
World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth	XLSX	PNG
Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth	XLSX	PNG
World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production Growth	XLSX	PNG
OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity	XLSX	PNG
OECD Commercial Crude Oil and Other Liquids Inventories	XLSX	PNG
Estimated Historical Unplanned OPEC Crude Oil Production Outages	XLSX	PNG
Estimated Historical Unplanned Non-OPEC Liquid Fuels Production Outages	XLSX	PNG

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Today In Energy	Daily
2018 Summer Fuels Outlook	Apr-2018	PDF
Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast	Feb-2014	PDF
Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook	Feb-2013	PDF
Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast	Jul-2012	PDF
Probabilities of Possible Future Prices	Apr-2010	PDF
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty	Oct-2009	PDF