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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: May 7, 2019  |  Next Release Date: June 11, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global liquid fuels

  • EIA forecasts that crude oil production in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will average 30.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019, down by 1.7 million b/d from 2018. In 2020, EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to fall by 0.4 million b/d to an average of 29.8 million b/d. Production in Venezuela and Iran account for most of the OPEC output declines in 2019 and in 2020, but EIA expects these declines to be partially offset by production increases from other OPEC members.
  • EIA forecasts global oil inventories will decline by 0.2 million b/d in 2019 and then increase by 0.1 million b/d in 2020. Global demand outpaces supply in 2019 in EIA’s forecast, but global liquid fuels supply then rises by 1.9 million b/d in 2020, with 1.5 million of that growth coming from the United States. Global oil demand rises by 1.5 million b/d in 2020 in the forecast, up from expected growth of 1.4 million b/d in 2019.

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

World liquid fuels consumption growth

World liquid fuels consumption

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

Estimated unplanned crude oil production among OPEC and non-OPEC producers

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity

OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2017201820192020
aWeighted by oil consumption.
bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 60.7663.3865.6968.16
OPEC Production 37.3737.3035.4234.87
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 32.0731.9630.2929.85
Total World Production 98.13100.67101.11103.03
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2,8442,8602,8702,905
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 2.031.491.661.81
OECD Consumption 47.2347.5147.6647.88
Non-OECD Consumption 51.2352.4853.7055.01
Total World Consumption 98.4699.98101.36102.89
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 3.23.12.32.9
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb -0.80.60.9-2.3

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance XLSX PNG
Estimated unplanned crude oil production outages among OPEC and non-OPEC producers XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption growth XLSX PNG
World crude oil and liquid fuels production XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption XLSX PNG
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity XLSX PNG
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply) XLSX PNG
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