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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: Dec. 7, 2021  |  Forecast Completed: Dec. 2, 2021  |  Next Release Date: Jan. 11, 2022  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global liquid fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $81 per barrel (b) in November, a $3/b decrease from October 2021 but a $38/b increase from November 2020. Crude oil prices have risen over the past year as result of steady draws on global oil inventories, which averaged 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) during the first three quarters of 2021. Crude oil prices fell significantly on November 26, and the Brent spot price began December below $70/b. The drop in prices followed the identification of the new COVID-19 Omicron variant, which raised the possibility that petroleum demand could decline in the near term.
  • We expect Brent prices will average $71/b in December and $73/b in the first quarter of 2022 (1Q22). For 2022 as a whole, we expect that growth in production from OPEC+, of U.S. tight oil, and from other non-OPEC countries will outpace slowing growth in global oil consumption, especially in light of renewed concerns about COVID-19 variants. We expect Brent prices will remain near current levels in 2022, averaging $70/b.
  • We estimate that 99.7 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in November, a 4.9 million b/d increase from November 2020 but 1.1 million b/d less than in November 2019. We revised down our forecast of consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels for 4Q21 and 1Q22, partly as a result of recently announced travel restrictions following reported outbreaks of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. The potential effects of the spread of this variant are uncertain, which introduces downside risks to the global oil consumption forecast, particularly for jet fuel. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 96.9 million b/d for all of 2021, which is a 5.1 million b/d increase from 2020. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 3.5 million b/d in 2022 to average 100.5 million b/d.

World liquid fuels consumption

World liquid fuelds consumption growth

World liquid fuels production and consumption

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

World crude oil and liquid fuels production

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity

OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2019202020212022
aForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 65.7163.1464.0067.03
OPEC Production 34.6630.7031.6333.90
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 29.2725.6026.3028.38
Total World Production 100.3893.8495.63100.93
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2,8793,0252,7452,857
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 2.526.197.205.16
OECD Consumption 47.7241.9844.4045.72
Non-OECD Consumption 52.5449.8452.5254.74
Total World Consumption 100.2691.8196.91100.46
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Product 2.8-3.35.84.7
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Ratea 3.31.9-3.91.6

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance XLSX PNG
Estimated unplanned crude oil production outages among OPEC and non-OPEC producers XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption growth XLSX PNG
World crude oil and liquid fuels production XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption XLSX PNG
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity XLSX PNG
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply) XLSX PNG
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