Short-Term Energy Outlook

Global liquid fuels

The November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy demand and supply patterns in 2020 and will continue to affect these patterns in the future. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 4.4% in the first half of 2020 compared with the same period a year ago. GDP began rising in the third quarter of 2020, and this STEO assumes it will grow by 3.7% from 2020 to 2021. The U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in this outlook are based on forecasts by IHS Markit.

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $40 per barrel (b) in October, down $1/b from the average in September. Brent prices fell in October as previously disrupted crude oil production in Libya came back online and as COVID-19 cases began increasing in many countries, which could reduce oil demand in the coming months. Despite these developments, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global oil inventories to continue falling in the coming months. However, EIA expects high global oil inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward pressure on oil prices and that Brent prices will remain near $40/b through the end of 2020. EIA expects that as global oil demand rises, forecast inventory draws in 2021 will cause some upward oil price pressures. EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $47/b in 2021.

EIA estimates that an average of 95.3 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in October. Liquid fuels consumption was down 5.9 million b/d from October 2019, but it was up from both the third-quarter 2020 average of 94.1 million b/d and the second-quarter 2020 average of 85.3 million b/d. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 92.9 million b/d for all of 2020, down by 8.6 million b/d from 2019, before increasing by 5.9 million b/d in 2021.

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
	2018	2019	2020projected	2021projected
^aWeighted by oil consumption. ^bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption	(million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production	64.02	65.98	63.74	64.88
OPEC Production	36.75	34.63	30.69	33.50
OPEC Crude Oil Portion	31.44	29.27	25.71	28.52
Total World Production	100.78	100.61	94.42	98.39
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)	2,859	2,879	2,982	2,927
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity	1.56	2.52	6.01	3.75
OECD Consumption	47.85	47.61	42.28	45.07
Non-OECD Consumption	52.78	53.91	50.62	53.73
Total World Consumption	100.62	101.52	92.91	98.80
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Product^a	2.9	2.0	-5.0	5.1
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate^b	0.6	2.1	1.0	-1.3

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Related Tables
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Production	PDF
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Production	PDF
Table 3d. World Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance	XLSX	PNG
Estimated unplanned crude oil production outages among OPEC and non-OPEC producers	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels consumption	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels consumption growth	XLSX	PNG
World crude oil and liquid fuels production	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption	XLSX	PNG
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity	XLSX	PNG
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)	XLSX	PNG

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