U.S. Energy Information Administration logo
‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: September 11, 2018  |  Next Release Date: October 10, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global Liquid Fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $73 per barrel (b) in August, down almost $2 from July. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $73/b in 2018 and $74/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for December 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending September 6, 2018, suggest a range of $56/b to $85/b encompasses the market expectation for December WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in August, up by 120,000 b/d from June. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 11.5 million b/d in 2019.
  • EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels inventories to decrease by 0.4 million b/d in 2018 compared with 2017, followed by an increase of 0.1 million b/d in 2019. This outlook of relatively stable inventory levels during the forecast period contributes to a forecast of monthly average Brent crude oil prices remaining relatively stable, between $72/b and $76/b, from September 2018 through the end of 2019.

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

World liquid fuels consumption

World liquid fuels consumption growth

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

Estimated unplanned crude oil production among OPEC and non-OPEC producers

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity

OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2016201720182019
aWeighted by oil consumption.
bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 57.6258.3960.7062.70
OPEC Production 39.4339.2938.9638.95
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 32.8732.6832.3532.20
Total World Production 97.0597.6899.67101.65
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2,9942,8432,7892,861
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 1.152.091.661.32
OECD Consumption 46.8047.2247.6448.01
Non-OECD Consumption 50.1951.3052.4653.56
Total World Consumption 97.0098.52100.10101.57
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.83.13.33.1
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 2.3-0.8-0.2-0.7

Interactive Data Viewers

Provides custom data views of historical and forecast data

STEO Data browser ›
Real Prices Viewer ›

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance XLSX PNG
Estimated unplanned crude oil production outages among OPEC and non-OPEC producers XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption growth XLSX PNG
World crude oil and liquid fuels production XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption XLSX PNG
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity XLSX PNG
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply) XLSX PNG
Related Articles    
Today In Energy Daily
2018 Summer Fuels Outlook Apr-2018 PDF
Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast Feb-2014 PDF
Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook Feb-2013 PDF
Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast Jul-2012 PDF
Probabilities of Possible Future Prices Apr-2010 PDF
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty Oct-2009 PDF