Short-Term Energy Outlook

Global Liquid Fuels

For the 2018 April–September summer driving season, EIA forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.74/gallon (gal), up from an average of $2.41/gal last summer (see Summer Fuels Outlook). The higher forecast gasoline prices are primarily the result of higher forecast crude oil prices. For all of 2018, EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.64/gal and gasoline retail prices for all grades to average $2.76/gal, which would result in the average U.S. household spending about $190 (9%) more on motor fuel in 2018 compared with 2017.

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $66 per barrel (b) in March. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average about $63/b in both 2018 and 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $4/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for July 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending April 5, 2018, suggest a range of $52/b to $78/b encompasses the market expectation for July 2018 WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in March, up 260,000 b/d from the February level. Total U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.3 million b/d in 2017. EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average U.S. crude oil production level, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA forecasts that 2019 crude oil production will again increase, averaging 11.4 million b/d.

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
^aWeighted by oil consumption. ^bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption	(million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production	57.97	58.67	61.23	62.70
OPEC Production	39.23	39.28	39.24	39.52
OPEC Crude Oil Portion	32.68	32.44	32.28	32.36
Total World Production	97.20	97.95	100.47	102.22
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)	2,985	2,838	2,864	2,898
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity	1.15	2.09	1.86	1.34
OECD Consumption	46.75	47.22	47.72	48.17
Non-OECD Consumption	50.12	51.30	52.59	53.98
Total World Consumption	96.87	98.52	100.31	102.16
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Product^a	2.8	3.2	3.4	3.3
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate^b	2.2	-0.8	-3.4	-1.0

Provides custom data views of historical and forecast data

STEO Data browser ›
Real Prices Viewer ›

Related Tables
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply	PDF
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply	PDF
Table 3d. World Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price	XLSX	PNG
World Liquid Fuels Production and Consumption Balance	XLSX	PNG
World Liquid Fuels Consumption	XLSX	PNG
World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth	XLSX	PNG
World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth	XLSX	PNG
Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth	XLSX	PNG
World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production Growth	XLSX	PNG
OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity	XLSX	PNG
OECD Commercial Crude Oil and Other Liquids Inventories	XLSX	PNG
Estimated Historical Unplanned OPEC Crude Oil Production Outages	XLSX	PNG
Estimated Historical Unplanned Non-OPEC Liquid Fuels Production Outages	XLSX	PNG

Related Articles
Today In Energy	Daily
2018 Summer Fuels Outlook	Apr-2018	PDF
Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast	Feb-2014	PDF
Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook	Feb-2013	PDF
Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast	Jul-2012	PDF
Probabilities of Possible Future Prices	Apr-2010	PDF
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty	Oct-2009	PDF