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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: November 10, 2020  |  Next Release Date: December 8, 2020  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global liquid fuels

  • The November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy demand and supply patterns in 2020 and will continue to affect these patterns in the future. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 4.4% in the first half of 2020 compared with the same period a year ago. GDP began rising in the third quarter of 2020, and this STEO assumes it will grow by 3.7% from 2020 to 2021. The U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in this outlook are based on forecasts by IHS Markit.
  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $40 per barrel (b) in October, down $1/b from the average in September. Brent prices fell in October as previously disrupted crude oil production in Libya came back online and as COVID-19 cases began increasing in many countries, which could reduce oil demand in the coming months. Despite these developments, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global oil inventories to continue falling in the coming months. However, EIA expects high global oil inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward pressure on oil prices and that Brent prices will remain near $40/b through the end of 2020. EIA expects that as global oil demand rises, forecast inventory draws in 2021 will cause some upward oil price pressures. EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $47/b in 2021.
  • EIA estimates that an average of 95.3 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in October. Liquid fuels consumption was down 5.9 million b/d from October 2019, but it was up from both the third-quarter 2020 average of 94.1 million b/d and the second-quarter 2020 average of 85.3 million b/d. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 92.9 million b/d for all of 2020, down by 8.6 million b/d from 2019, before increasing by 5.9 million b/d in 2021.

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

World liquid fuels consumption

World liquid fuelds consumption growth

World liquid fuels production and consumption

World crude oil and liquid fuels production

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity

OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2018201920202021
aWeighted by oil consumption.
bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 64.0265.9863.7464.88
OPEC Production 36.7534.6330.6933.50
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 31.4429.2725.7128.52
Total World Production 100.78100.6194.4298.39
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2,8592,8792,9822,927
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 1.562.526.013.75
OECD Consumption 47.8547.6142.2845.07
Non-OECD Consumption 52.7853.9150.6253.73
Total World Consumption 100.62101.5292.9198.80
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.92.0-5.05.1
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 0.62.11.0-1.3

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance XLSX PNG
Estimated unplanned crude oil production outages among OPEC and non-OPEC producers XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption growth XLSX PNG
World crude oil and liquid fuels production XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption XLSX PNG
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity XLSX PNG
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply) XLSX PNG
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