Short-Term Energy Outlook

Global liquid fuels

The August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is subject to heightened uncertainty resulting from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, how sanctions affect Russia’s oil production, the production decisions of OPEC+, the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas production rises, and other contributing factors. Less robust economic activity in our forecast could result in lower-than-forecast energy consumption.

We estimate that 98.8 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in July 2022, an increase of 0.9 million b/d from July 2021. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 99.4 million b/d for all of 2022, which is a 2.1 million b/d increase from 2021. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by another 2.1 million b/d in 2023 to average 101.5 million b/d.

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
	2020	2021	2022projected	2023projected
^aForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption	(million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production	63.20	64.02	66.15	66.80
OPEC Production	30.69	31.66	33.97	34.54
OPEC Crude Oil Portion	25.59	26.28	28.47	29.04
Total World Production	93.88	95.68	100.12	101.33
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)	3,028	2,636	2,810	2,826
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity	5.37	5.18	2.63	2.76
OECD Consumption	42.14	44.81	45.83	46.21
Non-OECD Consumption	49.70	52.54	53.60	55.28
Total World Consumption	91.83	97.35	99.43	101.49
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Product	-3.2	6.1	3.2	2.8
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate^a	1.7	-3.9	5.8	1.3

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Related Tables
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Production	PDF
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Production	PDF
Table 3d. World Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance	XLSX	PNG
Estimated unplanned crude oil production outages among OPEC and non-OPEC producers	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels consumption	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels consumption growth	XLSX	PNG
World crude oil and liquid fuels production	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption	XLSX	PNG
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity	XLSX	PNG
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)	XLSX	PNG

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