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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: Aug. 9, 2022  |  Forecast Completed: Aug. 4, 2022  |  Next Release Date: Sep. 7, 2022  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global liquid fuels

  • The August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is subject to heightened uncertainty resulting from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, how sanctions affect Russia’s oil production, the production decisions of OPEC+, the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas production rises, and other contributing factors. Less robust economic activity in our forecast could result in lower-than-forecast energy consumption.
  • We estimate that 98.8 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in July 2022, an increase of 0.9 million b/d from July 2021. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 99.4 million b/d for all of 2022, which is a 2.1 million b/d increase from 2021. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by another 2.1 million b/d in 2023 to average 101.5 million b/d.

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

World liquid fuels consumption

World liquid fuelds consumption growth

World crude oil and liquid fuels production

OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)

World liquid fuels production and consumption

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2020202120222023
aForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 63.2064.0266.1566.80
OPEC Production 30.6931.6633.9734.54
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 25.5926.2828.4729.04
Total World Production 93.8895.68100.12101.33
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 3,0282,6362,8102,826
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 5.375.182.632.76
OECD Consumption 42.1444.8145.8346.21
Non-OECD Consumption 49.7052.5453.6055.28
Total World Consumption 91.8397.3599.43101.49
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Product -3.26.13.22.8
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Ratea 1.7-3.95.81.3

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance XLSX PNG
Estimated unplanned crude oil production outages among OPEC and non-OPEC producers XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption growth XLSX PNG
World crude oil and liquid fuels production XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption XLSX PNG
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity XLSX PNG
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply) XLSX PNG
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