Short-Term Energy Outlook

Global Liquid Fuels

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $73 per barrel (b) in August, down almost $2 from July. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $73/b in 2018 and $74/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for December 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending September 6, 2018, suggest a range of $56/b to $85/b encompasses the market expectation for December WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in August, up by 120,000 b/d from June. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 11.5 million b/d in 2019.

EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels inventories to decrease by 0.4 million b/d in 2018 compared with 2017, followed by an increase of 0.1 million b/d in 2019. This outlook of relatively stable inventory levels during the forecast period contributes to a forecast of monthly average Brent crude oil prices remaining relatively stable, between $72/b and $76/b, from September 2018 through the end of 2019.

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
^aWeighted by oil consumption. ^bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption	(million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production	57.62	58.39	60.70	62.70
OPEC Production	39.43	39.29	38.96	38.95
OPEC Crude Oil Portion	32.87	32.68	32.35	32.20
Total World Production	97.05	97.68	99.67	101.65
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)	2,994	2,843	2,789	2,861
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity	1.15	2.09	1.66	1.32
OECD Consumption	46.80	47.22	47.64	48.01
Non-OECD Consumption	50.19	51.30	52.46	53.56
Total World Consumption	97.00	98.52	100.10	101.57
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Product^a	2.8	3.1	3.3	3.1
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate^b	2.3	-0.8	-0.2	-0.7

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Related Tables
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply	PDF
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply	PDF
Table 3d. World Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance	XLSX	PNG
Estimated unplanned crude oil production outages among OPEC and non-OPEC producers	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels consumption	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels consumption growth	XLSX	PNG
World crude oil and liquid fuels production	XLSX	PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption	XLSX	PNG
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity	XLSX	PNG
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)	XLSX	PNG

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