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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: February 12, 2019  |  Next Release Date: March 12, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global liquid fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $59 per barrel (b) in January, up $2/b from December 2018 but $10/b lower than the average in January of last year. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $61/b in 2019 and $62/b in 2020, compared with an average of $71/b in 2018. EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $8/b lower than Brent prices in the first quarter of 2019 before the discount gradually falls to $4/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 and through 2020.

  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in January, up 90,000 b/d from December. EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 12.4 million b/d in 2019 and 13.2 million b/d in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

  • Global liquid fuels inventories grew by an estimated 0.5 million b/d in 2018, and EIA expects they will grow by 0.4 million b/d in 2019 and by 0.6 million b/d in 2020.

  • U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports are estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.8 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 2.4 million b/d in 2018. EIA forecasts that net imports will continue to fall to an average of 0.9 million b/d in 2019 and to an average net export level of 0.3 million b/d in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, EIA forecasts the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products by about 1.1 million b/d.

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

World liquid fuels consumption growth

World liquid fuels consumption

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

Estimated unplanned crude oil production among OPEC and non-OPEC producers

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity

OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2017201820192020
aWeighted by oil consumption.
bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 60.7063.2265.7967.92
OPEC Production 37.3337.2836.1035.65
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 32.0731.9730.7430.49
Total World Production 98.03100.49101.89103.56
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2,8432,8632,9573,062
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 2.031.481.972.53
OECD Consumption 47.2347.6347.9948.24
Non-OECD Consumption 51.3252.3353.4654.69
Total World Consumption 98.5599.96101.45102.93
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 3.13.12.82.9
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb -0.80.60.4-2.4

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance XLSX PNG
Estimated unplanned crude oil production outages among OPEC and non-OPEC producers XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption growth XLSX PNG
World crude oil and liquid fuels production XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption XLSX PNG
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity XLSX PNG
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply) XLSX PNG
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