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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: February 6, 2018  |  Next Release Date: March 6, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global Liquid Fuels

  • North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $69 per barrel (b) in January, an increase of $5/b from the December level. Monthly average Brent prices have increased for seven consecutive months, and, on January 11, spot prices moved higher than $70/b for the first time since December 2014. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average about $62/b in both 2018 and 2019 compared with an average of $54/b in 2017.
  • EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $4/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019. NYMEX WTI contract values for May 2018 delivery traded during the five-day period ending February 1, 2018, suggest a range of $55/b to $77/b encompasses the market expectation for May 2018 WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in January, up 100,000 b/d from the December level. EIA estimates that total U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.3 million b/d in 2017 and will average 10.6 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average U.S. crude oil production level, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA forecasts that 2019 crude oil production will average 11.2 million b/d.
  • EIA estimates that global petroleum and other liquid fuels inventories declined by 0.5 million b/d in 2017. In this forecast, global inventories grow by about 0.2 million b/d in both 2018 and 2019.
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2016201720182019
aWeighted by oil consumption.
bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 57.9858.6961.0462.31
OPEC Production 39.2339.2939.3939.86
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 32.6832.4532.4332.70
Total World Production 97.2197.98100.43102.17
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2,9682,8702,9152,986
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 1.152.091.881.34
OECD Consumption 46.7447.1647.5948.02
Non-OECD Consumption 50.2051.3552.6353.93
Total World Consumption 96.9598.50100.23101.95
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.73.23.43.2
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 2.0-0.5-2.7-1.2

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