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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: April 9, 2019  |  Next Release Date: May 7, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global liquid fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $66 per barrel (b) in March, up $2/b from February 2019. Brent prices for the first quarter of 2019 averaged $63/b, which is $4/b lower than the same period in 2018. Despite lower crude oil prices than last year, Brent prices in March were $9/b higher than in December 2018, marking the largest December-to-March price increase since December 2011 to March 2012. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $65/b in 2019 and $62/b in 2020, compared with an average of $71/b in 2018. EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $8/b lower than Brent prices in the first half of 2019 before the discount gradually falls to $4/b in late-2019 and through 2020.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in March, up 0.3 million b/d from the February average. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 12.4 million b/d in 2019 and 13.1 million b/d in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

World liquid fuels consumption growth

World liquid fuels consumption

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

Estimated unplanned crude oil production among OPEC and non-OPEC producers

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity

OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2017201820192020
aWeighted by oil consumption.
bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 60.7663.3665.6067.75
OPEC Production 37.3737.3035.9235.46
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 32.0731.9630.5330.27
Total World Production 98.13100.66101.52103.21
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2,8442,8622,9152,985
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 2.031.481.932.12
OECD Consumption 47.2347.5047.8048.01
Non-OECD Consumption 51.2352.4853.5854.82
Total World Consumption 98.4699.98101.38102.83
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 3.13.12.43.0
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb -0.80.60.8-2.3

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance XLSX PNG
Estimated unplanned crude oil production outages among OPEC and non-OPEC producers XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption growth XLSX PNG
World crude oil and liquid fuels production XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption XLSX PNG
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity XLSX PNG
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply) XLSX PNG
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