U.S. Energy Information Administration logo
‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: April 10, 2018  |  Next Release Date: May 8, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global Liquid Fuels

  • For the 2018 April–September summer driving season, EIA forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.74/gallon (gal), up from an average of $2.41/gal last summer (see Summer Fuels Outlook). The higher forecast gasoline prices are primarily the result of higher forecast crude oil prices. For all of 2018, EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.64/gal and gasoline retail prices for all grades to average $2.76/gal, which would result in the average U.S. household spending about $190 (9%) more on motor fuel in 2018 compared with 2017.
  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $66 per barrel (b) in March. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average about $63/b in both 2018 and 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $4/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for July 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending April 5, 2018, suggest a range of $52/b to $78/b encompasses the market expectation for July 2018 WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in March, up 260,000 b/d from the February level. Total U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.3 million b/d in 2017. EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average U.S. crude oil production level, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA forecasts that 2019 crude oil production will again increase, averaging 11.4 million b/d.
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
aWeighted by oil consumption.
bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 57.9758.6761.2362.70
OPEC Production 39.2339.2839.2439.52
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 32.6832.4432.2832.36
Total World Production 97.2097.95100.47102.22
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2,9852,8382,8642,898
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity
OECD Consumption 46.7547.2247.7248.17
Non-OECD Consumption 50.1251.3052.5953.98
Total World Consumption 96.8798.52100.31102.16
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 2.2-0.8-3.4-1.0

Interactive Data Viewers

Provides custom data views of historical and forecast data

STEO Data browser ›
Real Prices Viewer ›

Related Articles    
Today In Energy Daily
2018 Summer Fuels Outlook Apr-2018 PDF
Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast Feb-2014 PDF
Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook Feb-2013 PDF
Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast Jul-2012 PDF
Probabilities of Possible Future Prices Apr-2010 PDF
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty Oct-2009 PDF