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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: Oct. 13, 2021  |  Forecast Completed: Oct. 7, 2021  |  Next Release Date: Nov. 9, 2021  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global liquid fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel (b) in September, up $4/b from August and up $34/b from September 2020. Brent spot prices have risen from their September average to more than $80/b in early October. Oil prices have increased over the past year as result of steady draws on global oil inventories, which averaged 1.9 million barrels per day (b/d) during the first three quarters of 2021. In addition to sustained inventory draws, prices increased after the October 4 announcement by OPEC+ that the group would keep current production targets unchanged.
  • We expect Brent prices will remain near current levels for the remainder of 2021, averaging $81/b during the fourth quarter of 2021, which is $10/b higher than our previous forecast. The higher forecast reflects our expectation that global oil inventories will fall at a faster rate than we had previously expected owing largely to lower global oil supply in late 2021 across a range of producers. In 2022, we expect that growth in production from OPEC+, U.S. tight oil, and other non-OPEC countries will outpace slowing growth in global oil consumption and contribute to Brent prices declining from current levels to an annual average of $72/b.

World liquid fuels consumption

World liquid fuelds consumption growth

World liquid fuels production and consumption

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance

World crude oil and liquid fuels production

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity

OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2019202020212022
aForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 66.0063.4864.1567.43
OPEC Production 34.6730.7131.7133.89
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 29.2725.6026.3728.36
Total World Production 100.6794.1995.86101.32
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2,8793,0252,7492,834
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 2.526.197.105.21
OECD Consumption 47.7942.0244.3545.72
Non-OECD Consumption 53.3650.4053.1255.23
Total World Consumption 101.1592.4297.47100.95
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Product 2.8-3.35.94.8
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Ratea 3.31.9-4.20.6

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance XLSX PNG
Estimated unplanned crude oil production outages among OPEC and non-OPEC producers XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels consumption growth XLSX PNG
World crude oil and liquid fuels production XLSX PNG
World liquid fuels production and consumption XLSX PNG
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity XLSX PNG
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply) XLSX PNG
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