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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: November 7, 2017  |  Next Release Date: December 12, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Natural Gas

  • U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 73.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 0.6 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to be 5.5 Bcf/d higher than the 2017 level.
  • In October, the average Henry Hub natural gas spot price was $2.88 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), down 10 cents/MMBtu from the September level. Expected growth in natural gas exports and domestic natural gas consumption in 2018 contribute to the forecast Henry Hub natural gas spot price rising from an annual average of $3.01/MMBtu in 2017 to $3.10/MMBtu in 2018. NYMEX contract values for February 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending November 2 suggest that a range of $2.08/MMBtu to $4.52/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for February Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
U.S. Natural Gas Summary
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot 2.73 2.61 3.12 3.21
Residential Sector 10.36 10.04 11.07 10.92
Commercial Sector 7.90 7.29 7.97 8.02
Industrial Sector 3.93 3.52 4.20 4.30
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production 78.83 77.81 78.76 84.80
Dry Gas Production 74.15 72.85 73.45 78.90
Pipeline Imports 7.20 7.97 7.97 8.14
LNG Imports 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.21
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector 12.64 11.87 11.90 12.89
Commercial Sector 8.77 8.48 8.54 9.02
Industrial Sector 20.61 21.10 21.37 21.94
Electric Power Sector 26.34 27.28 24.84 26.04
Total Consumption 74.64 75.10 73.06 76.83
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days -10.2 -5.1 -1.4 10.6
Cooling Degree Days 14.6 4.7 -8.1 -5.1
Commercial Employment 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.3
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production -2.0 1.1 3.0 3.3

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