U.S. Petroleum products

U.S. crude oil inventories
We expect commercial crude oil inventories in the United States to be below the five-year (2021–2025) low through the end of 2026 because of high refinery runs and lower net imports.

In April and May 2026, U.S. net imports of crude oil fell below 1 million barrels per day (b/d) as exports of crude oil from the United States surged to historically high levels and crude oil imports fell. Starting around mid-April, increased exports combined with decreased imports put pressure on U.S. stocks, which declined every week from April 17 to June 26. Increasing refinery runs in May also contributed to inventory draws, after refiners completed seasonal maintenance. After ending April around the five-year average, U.S. commercial crude oil stocks decreased by 25 million barrels in May, 15 million barrels in June, and 4 million barrels in July. We forecast net imports of crude oil to remain below average through the end of our forecast because of relatively high international demand for U.S. crude oil exports and lower U.S. imports, keeping inventories low.

This outlook assumes no additional releases of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve beyond the levels announced on March 13, 2026.

U.S. refinery inputs
We expect high crack spreads, an indicator of refinery profitability, through the end of 2026 will result in relatively high crude oil inputs to refineries. Through the first seven months of the year, crude oil inputs to refineries have been the highest since 2019, and we forecast net inputs will remain near the top of the five year (2021–2025) range through the end of the year.

We expect U.S refinery demand for crude oil will be about 17 million b/d through August, in line with the five-year average. In September and October, we expect refiners to reduce utilization and crude oil inputs for seasonal maintenance, dropping below 16 million b/d on average in October, resulting in reduced petroleum product production during that period. In November and December, we estimate refinery production to increase, while remaining below 17 million b/d, as refiners seek to capitalize on higher-than-average margins.

We estimate refinery margins in July have increased because of tighter global refined product market conditions. Lower refined product exports from Russia, the resumption of conflict around the Strait of Hormuz (limiting the flow of products from refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait), and reduced crude runs through refineries in China have all contributed to lower global refining activity. We estimate that these factors will contribute to ongoing tightness in global petroleum product markets, thereby supporting refinery margins for U.S. refiners through the end of the year.