U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
‹ Analysis & Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Global Liquid Fuels
- Implied global petroleum and liquid fuels inventories are estimated to have increased by 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016. EIA expects the oil market to be relatively balanced in 2017 and 2018, with inventory draws averaging 0.1 million b/d in 2017 and builds averaging 0.2 million b/d in 2018. The revised forecast, which reduces average inventory builds from last month's outlook, resulted from changes to estimates of historical global liquid fuels consumption that created a higher base for consumption during recent years and the forecast period. See International Data Revisions and the STEO Forecast for more discussion about this change.
- U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million b/d in 2016. U.S crude oil production is forecast to average 9.0 million b/d in 2017 and 9.5 million b/d in 2018.
- Benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $55/barrel (b) in January, a $1/b increase from December. This price was $24/b higher than the January 2016 average, and it was the highest monthly average for Brent spot prices since July 2015.
- EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $55/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average about $1/b less than Brent prices in 2017. The NYMEX contract values for April 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending February 2 suggest that a range from $45/b to $65/b encompasses the market expectation of WTI prices in April 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
- U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are expected to decrease from an average of $2.35/gallon (gal) in January 2017 to an average of $2.27/gal in February and then rise to $2.33/gal in March. U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.39/gal in 2017 and $2.44/gal in 2018.
|Global Petroleum and Other Liquids|
|2015||2016||2017 projected||2018 projected|
a Weighted by oil consumption.
b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
|Supply & Consumption||(million barrels per day)|
|OPEC Crude Oil Portion||31.63||32.52||32.70||33.20|
|Total World Production||96.83||97.22||98.03||99.76|
|OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)||2969||3087||3066||3107|
|Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity||1.46||1.26||1.69||1.21|
|Total World Consumption||95.06||96.47||98.09||99.55|
|Primary Assumptions||(percent change from prior year)|
|World Real Gross Domestic Producta||2.6||2.3||2.7||3.0|
|Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb||10.7||6.3||5.3||0.9|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|2016 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Apr-2016|
|2015 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Apr-2015|
|Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast||Feb-2014|
|Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook||Feb-2013|
|Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast||Jul-2012|
|Probabilities of Possible Future Prices||Apr-2010|
|Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty||Oct-2009|