Significant disruptions in the U.S. energy market have occurred in recent weeks as a
result of Hurricane Harvey. At the time of publication, continuing uncertainty exists
regarding the timeline for the return to normal operations for a broad range of
upstream production, refining, pipeline, and terminal and distribution infrastructure.
The severity and duration of these outages create additional uncertainty about the path
of energy prices in the coming weeks and months. Although this STEO attempts to
incorporate a baseline scenario for energy production, flows, and prices, actual
outcomes could deviate significantly from this forecast. This month's forecast does not
include any projected effects from Hurricane Irma, which made landfall in Florida on
September 10. At the time of publication, it was too early to have meaningful
information on the extent to which Hurricane Irma will cause disruptions to the U.S.
North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $52 per barrel (b) in August. EIA
forecasts Brent spot prices to average $51/b in 2017 and $52/b in 2018. West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) average crude oil prices are forecast to be about $2/b lower than
Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018. NYMEX contract values for December 2017 delivery
that traded during the five-day period ending September 7 suggest that a range of
$39/b to $63/b encompasses the market expectation for December WTI prices at the
95% confidence level.
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
a Weighted by oil consumption. b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption
(million barrels per day)
OPEC Crude Oil Portion
Total World Production
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity
Total World Consumption
(percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb
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