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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: October 11, 2017  |  Next Release Date: November 7, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global Liquid Fuels

  • North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $56 per barrel (b) in September, an increase of $4/b from the average in August. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $52/b in 2017 and $54/b in 2018, which is $1/b higher in 2017 and $2/b higher in 2018 compared with last month's forecast. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) average crude oil prices are forecast to be $3.50/b lower than Brent prices in 2018. NYMEX contract values for January 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending October 5 suggest that a range of $40/b to $65/b encompasses the market expectation for January WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • After reaching a two-year high of $2.69 per gallon (gal) on September 11, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices fell to an average of $2.57/gal as of October 2, as U.S. refinery capacity and gasoline production gradually came back online following Hurricane Harvey. EIA forecasts the U.S. regular gasoline retail price will average $2.49/gal in October and fall to an average of $2.33/gal in December.
  • U.S. crude oil production is estimated to have averaged 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in September, an increase of about 250,000 b/d from the August average. Crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico is estimated to have increased to a monthly average of 1.7 million b/d in September, following Hurricane Harvey, an increase of 70,000 b/d from the August level. EIA forecasts total U.S. crude oil production to average 9.2 million b/d in 2017 and 9.9 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average production in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d in 1970.
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2015 2016 2017 2018
a Weighted by oil consumption.
b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 58.48 57.99 58.63 60.12
OPEC Production 38.24 39.23 39.36 39.95
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 31.67 32.68 32.50 32.99
Total World Production 96.72 97.23 97.99 100.07
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2967 2966 2964 3024
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 1.46 1.15 2.09 1.42
OECD Consumption 46.44 46.88 47.24 47.62
Non-OECD Consumption 48.99 50.08 51.07 52.27
Total World Consumption 95.43 96.96 98.31 99.89
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.7 2.4 2.8 3.1
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 10.7 6.3 1.9 1.5

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