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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: March 7, 2017  |  Next Release Date: April 11, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global Liquid Fuels

  • U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016. U.S crude oil production is forecast to average 9.2 million b/d in 2017 and 9.7 million b/d in 2018.
  • Benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $55 per barrel (b) in February, largely unchanged from the average in January.
  • EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $55/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are expected to average about $1/b less than Brent prices in the forecast. NYMEX contract values for May 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending March 2 suggest that a range of $46/b to $63/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in May 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
  • Implied global petroleum and liquid fuels inventories increased by an estimated 0.5 million b/d in 2016. EIA expects a relatively balanced oil market in the next two years, with inventory builds averaging 0.1 million b/d in 2017 and 0.2 million b/d in 2018.
  • U.S. monthly average regular gasoline retail prices are expected to increase from $2.30/gallon (gal) in February 2017 to $2.51/gal in July before falling to $2.24/gal by December. U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.40/gal in 2017 and $2.44/gal in 2018.

Figure 6: World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2015 2016 2017 2018
a Weighted by oil consumption.
b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 58.80 58.18 58.71 59.70
OPEC Production 38.03 39.00 39.53 40.20
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 31.63 32.52 32.70 33.20
Total World Production 96.83 97.17 98.24 99.91
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2969 3070 3067 3099
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 1.46 1.26 1.71 1.21
OECD Consumption 46.40 46.78 47.04 47.38
Non-OECD Consumption 48.73 49.86 51.11 52.37
Total World Consumption 95.12 96.64 98.15 99.74
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.6 2.3 2.7 3.0
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 10.7 6.3 5.4 0.9

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