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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: February 7, 2017  |  Next Release Date: March 7, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global Liquid Fuels

  • Implied global petroleum and liquid fuels inventories are estimated to have increased by 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016. EIA expects the oil market to be relatively balanced in 2017 and 2018, with inventory draws averaging 0.1 million b/d in 2017 and builds averaging 0.2 million b/d in 2018. The revised forecast, which reduces average inventory builds from last month's outlook, resulted from changes to estimates of historical global liquid fuels consumption that created a higher base for consumption during recent years and the forecast period. See International Data Revisions and the STEO Forecast for more discussion about this change.
  • U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million b/d in 2016. U.S crude oil production is forecast to average 9.0 million b/d in 2017 and 9.5 million b/d in 2018.
  • Benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $55/barrel (b) in January, a $1/b increase from December. This price was $24/b higher than the January 2016 average, and it was the highest monthly average for Brent spot prices since July 2015.
  • EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $55/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average about $1/b less than Brent prices in 2017. The NYMEX contract values for April 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending February 2 suggest that a range from $45/b to $65/b encompasses the market expectation of WTI prices in April 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
  • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are expected to decrease from an average of $2.35/gallon (gal) in January 2017 to an average of $2.27/gal in February and then rise to $2.33/gal in March. U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.39/gal in 2017 and $2.44/gal in 2018.

Figure 6: World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2015 2016 2017 2018
a Weighted by oil consumption.
b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 58.80 58.20 58.48 59.55
OPEC Production 38.03 39.02 39.55 40.21
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 31.63 32.52 32.70 33.20
Total World Production 96.83 97.22 98.03 99.76
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2969 3087 3066 3107
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 1.46 1.26 1.69 1.21
OECD Consumption 46.33 46.63 47.03 47.26
Non-OECD Consumption 48.73 49.83 51.06 52.29
Total World Consumption 95.06 96.47 98.09 99.55
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.6 2.3 2.7 3.0
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 10.7 6.3 5.3 0.9

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