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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: September 12, 2017  |  Next Release Date: October 11, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global Liquid Fuels

  • Significant disruptions in the U.S. energy market have occurred in recent weeks as a result of Hurricane Harvey. At the time of publication, continuing uncertainty exists regarding the timeline for the return to normal operations for a broad range of upstream production, refining, pipeline, and terminal and distribution infrastructure. The severity and duration of these outages create additional uncertainty about the path of energy prices in the coming weeks and months. Although this STEO attempts to incorporate a baseline scenario for energy production, flows, and prices, actual outcomes could deviate significantly from this forecast. This month's forecast does not include any projected effects from Hurricane Irma, which made landfall in Florida on September 10. At the time of publication, it was too early to have meaningful information on the extent to which Hurricane Irma will cause disruptions to the U.S. energy system.
  • North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $52 per barrel (b) in August. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $51/b in 2017 and $52/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) average crude oil prices are forecast to be about $2/b lower than Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018. NYMEX contract values for December 2017 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending September 7 suggest that a range of $39/b to $63/b encompasses the market expectation for December WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2015 2016 2017 2018
a Weighted by oil consumption.
b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 58.48 57.94 58.80 60.15
OPEC Production 38.23 39.24 39.46 40.13
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 31.67 32.69 32.49 32.99
Total World Production 96.72 97.19 98.26 100.28
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2970 2967 2995 3066
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 1.46 1.15 2.11 1.42
OECD Consumption 46.43 46.82 47.23 47.66
Non-OECD Consumption 48.99 50.08 51.03 52.29
Total World Consumption 95.42 96.91 98.26 99.95
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.7 2.3 2.8 3.1
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 10.7 6.3 2.5 2.3

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