‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: May 9, 2017  |  Next Release Date: June 6, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global Liquid Fuels

  • North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $52 per barrel (b) in April, $1/b higher than the March average and the fifth consecutive month that Brent crude oil spot prices averaged between $50/b and $55/b. EIA forecasts Brent prices to average $53/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $2/b less than Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018.
  • NYMEX contract values for August 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending May 4 suggest that a range of $37/b to $63/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in August 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
  • Implied global petroleum and liquid fuels inventories are estimated to have increased by 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016. EIA forecasts inventory builds to average 0.2 million b/d in 2017 and then increase to an average of 0.5 million b/d in 2018.

Figure 6: World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2015 2016 2017 2018
a Weighted by oil consumption.
b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 58.77 58.17 59.04 60.18
OPEC Production 37.97 38.92 39.43 40.23
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 31.49 32.45 32.46 33.13
Total World Production 96.74 97.09 98.47 100.40
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2970 2967 3033 3109
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 1.46 1.22 1.82 1.21
OECD Consumption 46.37 46.86 47.15 47.45
Non-OECD Consumption 48.73 49.88 51.15 52.48
Total World Consumption 95.10 96.74 98.30 99.93
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.7 2.3 2.8 3.0
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 10.7 6.3 2.9 2.3

Interactive Data Viewers

Provides custom data views of historical and forecast data

STEO Custom Table Builder ›
Real Prices Viewer ›


In beta testing:

STEO Data browser ›

Related Articles    
Today In Energy Daily
2017 Summer Fuels Outlook Apr-2017 PDF
2016 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow Apr-2016 PDF
2015 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow Apr-2015 PDF
Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast Feb-2014 PDF
Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook Feb-2013 PDF
Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast Jul-2012 PDF
Probabilities of Possible Future Prices Apr-2010 PDF
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty Oct-2009 PDF