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Short-Term Energy and SUmmer Fuels Outlook

Release Date: April 11, 2017  |  Next Release Date: May 9, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global Liquid Fuels

  • U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016. U.S crude oil production is forecast to average 9.2 million b/d in 2017 and 9.9 million b/d in 2018.
  • North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $52 per barrel (b) in March, $3/b lower than the February average. EIA forecasts Brent prices to average $54/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $2/b less than Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018.
  • NYMEX contract values for July 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending April 6 suggest that a range of $41/b to $66/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in July 2017 at the 95% confidence level.

Figure 6: World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2015 2016 2017 2018
a Weighted by oil consumption.
b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 58.77 58.18 58.80 59.96
OPEC Production 38.03 38.99 39.51 40.21
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 31.63 32.57 32.69 33.24
Total World Production 96.80 97.17 98.31 100.18
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2970 2965 2979 3043
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 1.46 1.22 1.75 1.21
OECD Consumption 46.37 46.81 47.05 47.34
Non-OECD Consumption 48.73 49.86 51.11 52.45
Total World Consumption 95.10 96.67 98.16 99.79
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.7 2.3 2.7 3.0
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 10.6 6.3 4.2 2.2

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