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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: June 6, 2017  |  Next Release Date: July 11, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global Liquid Fuels

  • North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $50 per barrel (b) in May, $2/b lower than the April average. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $53/b in 2017 and $56/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $2/b less than Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018. NYMEX contract values for September 2017 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending June 1 suggest that a range of $39/b to $64/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in September 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
  • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met on May 25 and announced an extension to voluntary production cuts through March 2018 that were originally set to end in June 2017. EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 32.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2017 and 32.8 million b/d in 2018.
  • EIA forecasts that implied global petroleum and liquid fuels inventories will decline by about 0.2 million b/d in 2017 and then increase by an average of 0.1 million b/d in 2018.
  • U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million b/d in 2016. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to average 9.3 million b/d in 2017 and 10.0 million b/d in 2018. The 2018 forecast exceeds the previous record level of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970.
  • For the 2017 summer driving season (April–September), U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.46/gallon (gal), compared with $2.23/gal last summer. The higher forecast gasoline price is primarily the result of a higher forecast crude oil price. The forecast annual average price for regular gasoline in 2017 is $2.38/gal.

Figure 6: World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2015 2016 2017 2018
a Weighted by oil consumption.
b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 58.77 58.17 59.08 60.30
OPEC Production 37.97 39.00 39.21 39.86
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 31.49 32.53 32.30 32.77
Total World Production 96.74 97.17 98.30 100.16
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2970 2967 2989 3020
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 1.46 1.15 2.10 1.40
OECD Consumption 46.41 46.85 47.14 47.50
Non-OECD Consumption 48.99 50.07 51.32 52.58
Total World Consumption 95.40 96.92 98.46 100.08
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.7 2.3 2.7 3.1
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 10.7 6.3 2.9 2.3

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