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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: November 7, 2017  |  Next Release Date: December 12, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global Liquid Fuels

  • North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $58 per barrel (b) in October, an increase of $1/b from the average in September. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $53/b in 2017 and $56/b in 2018.
  • NYMEX contract values for February 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending November 2 suggest that a range of $45/b to $67/b encompasses the market expectation for February WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2015 2016 2017 2018
a Weighted by oil consumption.
b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 58.48 57.99 58.69 60.21
OPEC Production 38.24 39.23 39.35 39.95
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 31.67 32.68 32.50 32.99
Total World Production 96.72 97.23 98.04 100.16
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2967 2966 2969 3054
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 1.46 1.15 2.10 1.42
OECD Consumption 46.27 46.73 47.04 47.44
Non-OECD Consumption 48.99 50.17 51.16 52.43
Total World Consumption 95.26 96.90 98.21 99.87
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.0
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 10.7 6.3 1.7 1.1

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