U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
‹ Analysis & Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Global Liquid Fuels
- U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016. U.S crude oil production is forecast to average 9.2 million b/d in 2017 and 9.7 million b/d in 2018.
- Benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $55 per barrel (b) in February, largely unchanged from the average in January.
- EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $55/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are expected to average about $1/b less than Brent prices in the forecast. NYMEX contract values for May 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending March 2 suggest that a range of $46/b to $63/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in May 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
- Implied global petroleum and liquid fuels inventories increased by an estimated 0.5 million b/d in 2016. EIA expects a relatively balanced oil market in the next two years, with inventory builds averaging 0.1 million b/d in 2017 and 0.2 million b/d in 2018.
- U.S. monthly average regular gasoline retail prices are expected to increase from $2.30/gallon (gal) in February 2017 to $2.51/gal in July before falling to $2.24/gal by December. U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.40/gal in 2017 and $2.44/gal in 2018.
|Global Petroleum and Other Liquids|
|2015||2016||2017 projected||2018 projected|
a Weighted by oil consumption.
b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
|Supply & Consumption||(million barrels per day)|
|OPEC Crude Oil Portion||31.63||32.52||32.70||33.20|
|Total World Production||96.83||97.17||98.24||99.91|
|OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)||2969||3070||3067||3099|
|Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity||1.46||1.26||1.71||1.21|
|Total World Consumption||95.12||96.64||98.15||99.74|
|Primary Assumptions||(percent change from prior year)|
|World Real Gross Domestic Producta||2.6||2.3||2.7||3.0|
|Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb||10.7||6.3||5.4||0.9|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|2016 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Apr-2016|
|2015 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Apr-2015|
|Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast||Feb-2014|
|Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook||Feb-2013|
|Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast||Jul-2012|
|Probabilities of Possible Future Prices||Apr-2010|
|Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty||Oct-2009|