Forecast overview
- Global oil prices. We expect global oil inventories to rise through 2026, putting significant downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. We forecast that the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $62 per barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $52/b in 2026.
- Global oil production. Global liquid fuels production increases throughout the forecast, which we expect will drive inventory accumulation. Production growth is led by countries outside of OPEC+, where production rises by 2.0 million b/d in 2025 and by 0.7 million b/d in 2026. OPEC+ increases total liquids production by 0.6 million b/d in both 2025 and 2026, as the group unwinds crude oil production cuts. However, we expect OPEC+ production will remain below announced targets, preventing inventory builds from accelerating too quickly and limiting the decrease in oil prices.
- U.S. crude oil production. In July, U.S. crude oil production averaged more than 13.6 million b/d, the most in any month on record. Production in July was higher than we previously estimated, which raised the starting point for our U.S. crude oil production forecast. In addition, we raised our forecast for crude oil production in the Gulf of America as some projects are ramping up production faster than we had expected. Although we expect crude oil production will decline from its recent peak as oil prices fall, we now forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million b/d in both 2025 and 2026. Our 2026 forecast increased by 0.2 million b/d from last month.
- Natural gas prices. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price in our forecast rises from just under $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in September 2025 to $4.10/MMBtu in January 2026. Our January forecast price is almost 50 cents/MMBtu lower than it was in last month’s outlook. Lower natural gas prices largely reflect our expectation that U.S. natural gas production will be higher than previously forecast, leading to more natural gas in storage compared with our previous forecast.
- LNG export capacity. We expect the United States will add 5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity in 2025 and 2026 as Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 projects come online. We assess that additions to LNG export capacity will increase total LNG exports to 14.7 Bcf/d in 2025 and to 16.3 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 11.9 Bcf/d in 2024.
- Coal consumption. The electric power sector consumed 15% more coal in the first half of 2025 (1H25) than in 1H24, driven by higher electricity demand and higher natural gas prices. We expect the increase in coal consumption in the electric power sector to slow, rising by 4% in 2H25 compared with 2H24. Despite an increase in natural gas prices in 2026, we forecast coal consumption in the electric power sector to fall by 3% compared with 2025 as generation from utility-scale solar facilities increases.
| Notable Forecast Changes | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report. Percentages are calculated from unrounded values. |
||
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| Previous forecast | 13.4 | 13.3 |
| Percentage change | 0.6% | 1.6% |
| Henry Hub spot price (dollars per million British thermal units) | $3.40 | $3.90 |
| Previous forecast | $3.50 | $4.30 |
| Percentage change | -2.8% | -8.0% |
| U.S. dry natural gas production (billion cubic feet per day) | 107 | 107 |
| Previous forecast | 107 | 106 |
| Percentage change | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| U.S. natural gas inventories (billion cubic feet) | 3,380 | 3,020 |
| Previous forecast | 3,280 | 2,830 |
| Percentage change | 3.0% | 6.7% |
You can find more information in the detailed table of forecast changes.
