Rapid declines from horizontal wells require more drilling to sustain production

As U.S. crude oil and natural gas production have increased, so has the volume of production declines from existing wells. To offset the increasing declines, operators today must bring on new wells to sustain or increase production levels.

Low-sulfur bunker fuel sales have decreased since 2020

When the International Maritime Organization’s lower marine sulfur limit known as IMO 2020 took effect in January 2020, commercial shippers pivoted sharply to fueling their vessels with low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO). In the years since, high-sulfur fuel oil has reclaimed some market share, as a growing number of commercial vessels install sulfur scrubbers that allow operators to use the heavier, cheaper fuel oils while complying with the new sulfur emission limits.

U.S. coal exports declined 11% in the first half of 2025 due to reduced exports to China

• According to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau in September, the United States exported 46.8 million short tons (MMst) of coal in the first half of 2025 (1H25), an 11% decline from 1H24.
• Steam coal exports totaled 22.5 MMst, a 10% decline from 1H24. Metallurgical coal exports totaled 24.2 MMst, a 13% decline from 1H24.
• Reduced coal exports to China (4.4 MMst) accounted for 73% of the decline in total U.S. net coal exports. China accounted for 76% of the decline in metallurgical coal exports and 68% of the decline in steam coal exports.
• U.S. exports to China decreased after China imposed a 15% additional tariff on imports of U.S. coal in February and a 34% reciprocal tariff on imports from the United States in April.
• The reduction in total exports also reflects a global market characterized by declining coal prices caused by ample supply and soft demand. Meanwhile, coal consumption in the U.S. electric power sector has risen due to more demand and higher natural gas prices.

Brazil is expanding its liquefied natural gas import infrastructure

Companies operating in Brazil have expanded the country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification infrastructure since 2020, more than doubling its import capacity as the country seeks to diversify its energy supply and enhance energy security. Brazil’s regasification capacity grew from 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2020 to 5.1 Bcf/d in August 2025.

U.S. biofuels production capacity growth slowed in 2024

The pace of capacity additions for U.S. biofuel production slowed in 2024, with production capacity increasing by a modest 3% from the start of 2024 to the start of 2025, according to our latest biofuels production capacity reports. A deceleration in production capacity in our category renewable diesel and other biofuels accounted for most of the slowdown in growth. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable naphtha, and renewable propane make up virtually all of the other biofuels.

ERCOT increasingly meets rising demand with solar, wind, and batteries

Since 2021, electricity demand within the Texas electricity grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has steadily increased. In the first nine months of 2025, electricity demand in ERCOT, which manages about 90% of the state's load, reached a record high compared with the same period in previous years. Over those same months, ERCOT had the fastest electricity demand growth among U.S. electricity grids between 2024 and 2025. From January through September 2025, demand for electric power in ERCOT increased 5% compared with the same period in 2024 to 372 terawatthours (TWh), 23% more than the same months in 2021. Since 2023, wind and solar generation, especially utility-scale solar, have been the fastest-growing sources of electricity in ERCOT and are increasingly meeting rising demand.

U.S. fuel ethanol exports on track to set record, driving more domestic production

The United States is on track to export a record amount of fuel ethanol for the second year in a row in 2025, driven by growing international demand. This growing market for exports is supporting increased U.S. fuel ethanol production, even as domestic consumption stagnates.

U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico reach new records

U.S. natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 7.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in May 2025, the most of any month on record as Mexico’s demand for natural gas, particularly in the electric power sector, increases. On an annual basis, U.S. natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 6.4 Bcf/d in 2024, a 25% increase compared with 2019 and the highest on record in data going back as early as 1975.

North America’s LNG export capacity could more than double by 2029

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters in the United States have announced plans to more than double U.S. liquefaction capacity, adding an estimated 13.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) between 2025 and 2029, according to our Liquefaction Capacity File and trade press reports. The United States is already the largest exporter in the world with 15.4 Bcf/d of capacity.

Winter residential energy expenditures vary by heating fuel

We expect energy expenditures this winter will vary based on a home’s main space heating fuel: homes heating with natural gas will pay about the same amount for natural gas as they did last winter, but homes heating with electricity will pay more than they did last winter. Homes heating with propane or heating oil will pay less than they did last winter.

U.S. ethane exports are expected to grow through 2026

U.S. ethane exports are poised for significant growth through 2026, driven by robust global demand for ethane as a petrochemical feedstock, substantial U.S. export capacity expansions, and larger vessels to carry ethane exports. In our October Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. ethane net exports will grow 14% in 2025, followed by a 16% rise in 2026. The United States does not import ethane.

Electricity use is becoming more common for residential heating

An increasing share of U.S. households are using electricity for heating, although natural gas remains the most common heating fuel. In 2024, 42% of U.S. households reported that electricity was their main space heating fuel, according to annual estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. Natural gas was the main heating fuel in 47% of homes last year, a decline from 49% in 2010.

Expanding strategic oil stocks in China support crude oil prices

We estimate crude oil inventories in China increased by about 900,000 barrels per day (b/d) between January and August this year, essentially acting as a source of demand by removing barrels from the global markets. The stock builds in China limited the downward price pressure we would otherwise expect to see with growing inventories, keeping the Brent crude oil spot prices in a relatively tight range around $68 per barrel (b) in the second and third quarters of 2025.

U.S. propane inventories are well stocked heading into the winter heating season

The United States is well stocked with propane heading into the winter. For the week ending September 26, U.S. propane inventory was 103 million barrels, about 13 million barrels more than the previous five-year average for this time of year, based on data in our Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Stable crude oil prices, increasing refinery margins in third quarter of 2025

Crude oil prices were relatively stable in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), ending the quarter just 9 cents per barrel (b) less than they started, while refinery margins increased to their highest levels so far this year. In this quarterly update, we review petroleum markets price developments in 3Q25, covering crude oil prices and refinery margins.