EIA modifies Short-Term Energy Outlook format to expand analysis of current oil and natural gas markets
Beginning with the October 13, 2016 publication, the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) includes several format changes based on the customer feedback from a December 2015 online survey. All forecast tables and charts will continue to be published monthly with the same level of detail. EIA has modified the analysis text and navigation of the STEO website to increase the focus on current developments in oil and natural gas markets.
STEO's new Markets Review section includes discussions of crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas markets, similar to the analysis text previously called the Market Prices and Uncertainty Report. The Markets Review text provides additional insights into how current market events are related to the STEO forecast (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Markets Review section provides expanded analysis of current oil and natural gas markets
Other changes to STEO content
- Content previously found separately under the Overview and STEO Report sections will be combined under a new Forecasts section (Figure 2).
- Highlights bullets on the All Highlights page now include a bullet for each energy topic.
- The Forecast text includes a new summary of Notable Forecast Changes from the previous STEO forecasts to complement the Forecast Changes table.
- In most months, the Forecast sections (Global Oil and Other Liquids, Coal, etc.) will contain the same charts and tables always published in STEO, but the new report will have shorter text analysis. Twice a year, in the January and June editions of STEO, a more detailed discussion will be provided for each Forecast topic.
- STEO will continue to include a Winter Fuels Outlook in October and a Summer Fuels Outlook in April.
About the 2015 STEO User Survey
Recent changes to the Short-Term Energy Outlook aim to provide a more useful product in response to customer feedback collected in 2015.
EIA conducted an online survey of STEO users between December 8 and 15, 2015. More than 3,400 users answered the five-question survey. The survey was designed to learn who is using the information and how they use it. EIA also asked about a proposal to publish STEO every other month rather than monthly.
As a result of customer responses, EIA decided to modify the STEO analysis text to put more emphasis on current developments in oil and natural gas markets. We also decided to continue to publish STEO every month.
Key results of the survey include:
- About 2/3 of respondents were most interested in the data tables, compared with just 4% who were most interested in the text
- Petroleum was the most popular section (48%), followed by natural gas (15%)
The proposal to change STEO from a monthly publication to an every-other-month publication included an option for EIA to provide a summary of recent market trends driving oil and natural gas prices in the months that STEO was not published.
- About 60% of responses to this proposal indicated that a move to an every-other-month publication would be at least somewhat favorable, while about 30% indicated it would be at least somewhat unfavorable.
- However, many respondents who viewed that change unfavorably provided extensive commentary on why EIA should not make that change.