Global refinery margins fall to multiyear seasonal lows in September
Note: The 3:2:1 crack spread is an indicator of refining margins, the short-term profit margin for oil refineries, which generally produce about 2 barrels of gasoline for every 1 barrel of distillate fuel oil. To estimate the refinery crack spreads, regional crude oil benchmarks were used (Brent for New York, Los Angeles, and ARA; Light Louisiana Sweet for the U.S. Gulf Coast; West Texas Intermediate for Chicago; and Dubai for Singapore). ARA=Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp
Refinery margins for petroleum refiners across the world are shrinking, indicating reduced profitability from refining crude oil and selling petroleum products. Declining margins are the result of relatively weak demand for petroleum products even as global refining capacity increases.
Read More ›Fewer tankers transit the Red Sea in 2024
The amount of crude oil and oil products flowing through the Bab el-Mandeb, the southern chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea, decreased by more than 50% in the first eight months of 2024.
Read More ›Tags: international, pipelines, liquid fuels, map, crude oil, oil/petroleum, chokepoints
U.S. hourly electricity demand peaked in July with widespread heatwaves
Note: Chart shows maximum electricity demand each day based on hourly data converted to Eastern Daylight Time.
Last summer, U.S. electricity demand in the Lower 48 states was greatest at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on July 15, 2024, when it reached about 745 gigawatthours (GWh), based on data in our Hourly Electric Grid Monitor. In our analysis, we calculate each day’s peak according to the hour with the highest electricity demand. This year’s U.S. summer hourly peak (745 GWh) was essentially the same as in 2023 (742 GWh) and in 2022 (743 GWh). On the other hand, U.S. generation from January through July was about 2,500 terawatthours (TWh), 4% more than the 2,397 TWh generated in the same period last year, according to our Electricity Power Monthly.
Read More ›Hurricane Milton nears landfall on Florida’s west coast, disrupts energy infrastructure
This TIE was updated with additional mapping.
As of 8:00 a.m. eastern time on October 9, Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday as a major hurricane on the west coast of Florida with sustained winds of 160 miles per hour, creating the potential for significant disruptions to energy infrastructure.
Read More ›Household heating expenditures expected to remain about the same or less than last winter
As we explain in our October 2024 Winter Fuels Outlook, we expect that most U.S. households are likely to spend about the same or less on energy than they did last winter, depending on a household’s main space heating fuel and the region where they live. We expect that lower prices this winter will be offset by colder temperatures, resulting in relatively little change in expenditures.
Read More ›U.S. natural gas-fired electricity generation set new daily records in summer 2024
U.S. natural gas-fired power plants generated more than 7 million megawatthours (MWh) of electricity on August 2, 2024, according to our Hourly Electric Grid Monitor, making up almost half of all electricity generated in the contiguous United States that day.
Read More ›Tags: natural gas, generation, electricity, weather
EIA now publishes additional U.S. biofuel and distillate forecasts
Biofuels are making up an increasing share of total distillate fuel oil consumed in the United States. Beginning in the September 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we began publishing forecasts for several new series that help to better capture how biofuels are being consumed and overall demand for distillate fuel oil, a classification of petroleum products that includes diesel, fuel oil, and heating oil.
Read More ›Distillate fuel oil demand will increase in the fall because of the agricultural harvest
Updated October 11, 2024 to correct a data calculation in the third figure.
Note: Total distillate fuel oil includes petroleum-based distillate fuel oil, renewable diesel, and biodiesel.
We expect distillate fuel oil consumption to increase in the fall as diesel-powered agricultural equipment is used to harvest and transport crops. The harvest tends to peak in mid-October and continue through November, when the start of the winter home heating season also supports distillate fuel oil demand. With early indications that the 2024 harvest will likely be on schedule or slightly ahead of schedule, we expect distillate demand to generally follow the five-year average in 2024.
Read More ›Data centers and cryptocurrency mining in Texas drive strong power demand growth
Note: The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) defines large flexible load as any facility drawing power from the grid with an expected peak demand capacity of 75 megawatts or more.
In the United States, electricity consumption is growing fastest in Texas, where the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) manages 90% of the load on the state’s power grid. One of the main sources of growing demand for power is large-scale computing facilities such as data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations, although their future demands are uncertain. In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect electricity demand from customers identified by ERCOT as large flexible load (LFL) will total 54 billion kilowatthours (kWh) in 2025, up almost 60% from expected demand in 2024. This expected demand from LFL customers would represent about 10% of total forecast electricity consumption on the ERCOT grid next year.
Read More ›Utility-scale U.S. solar electricity generation continues to grow in 2024
In August 2024, utility-scale generation of solar electricity averaged 63.1 gigawatthours between 10:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. each day in the Lower 48 states, 36% more than for the same hours in August 2023. Additions of solar generating capacity outpaced other resources in the U.S. electric power sector in 2023, and we expect this trend to continue through the end of 2024.
Read More ›Tags: generation, electricity, Texas, solar, California, states, Florida, utility
Data center owners turn to nuclear as potential electricity source
Last month, Constellation Energy announced a 20-year power purchase agreement (PPA) to provide electricity to Microsoft data centers in the mid-Atlantic region from the Unit 1 reactor at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania.
Read More ›Tags: consumption/demand, electricity, nuclear, Mid-Atlantic
China extracts commercially viable natural gas from deeper shale formations
China is a major natural gas importer by pipeline and the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the last 10 years, the Chinese government has actively supported the development of unconventional natural gas resources to reduce import dependence and enhance energy security.
Read More ›Tags: natural gas, international, China, map, production/supply, shale
Category 3 Hurricane Helene nears landfall, disrupts energy infrastructure
Note: Major hurricanes are classified as Category 3 or higher. LNG=liquefied natural gas
As of 8:00 a.m. eastern time on September 26, Hurricane Helene was expected to make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle late Thursday with sustained winds of 115 miles per hour, creating the potential for significant disruptions to energy infrastructure. Hurricane Helene is the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the United States this hurricane season. The other three named storms that made landfall so far this hurricane season (Beryl, Debby, and Francine) were either Category 1 or 2 hurricanes.
Read More ›U.S. net natural gas exports remain flat in the first half of 2024
In the first six months of 2024, U.S. net natural gas exports (exports minus imports) averaged 12.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), 1% (0.1 Bcf/d) more than the same period last year and 2% (0.3 Bcf/d) less than in 2023, according to our Natural Gas Monthly. Since 2019, increases in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and exports by pipeline to Mexico have led the growth in U.S. natural gas exports. The United States has exported more natural gas than it imports since 2017.
Read More ›The United States is the world’s largest gasoline exporter
The United States is the world’s largest exporter of motor gasoline (finished gasoline plus gasoline blending components), supplying over 16% of total global exports. U.S. motor gasoline exports in 2023 averaged 900,000 barrels per day (b/d), equivalent to about 10% of domestic consumption and enough to fill up the tanks of over 1.5 million SUVs per day, assuming an average tank size of 24 gallons. Other large gasoline exporters, including Singapore and the Netherlands, have never exceeded 700,000 b/d in gasoline exports. China and India have both added significant refining capacity since 2010 and have also increased gasoline exports.
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