Lower fuel prices in 2024 resulted in the lowest U.S.-Mexico energy trade value since 2020
Note: Real prices are adjusted for inflation.
The value of all energy trade between the United States and Mexico was estimated to be $57 billion in 2024, down from nearly $72 billion in 2023, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. A combination of lower petroleum output from Mexico and lower fuel prices, particularly for petroleum products that make up the bulk of the cross-border energy trade between the two countries, drove most of the decrease.
Energy trade value represents the total value of energy imports and exports between two countries and is driven by commodity volumes and prices. Most of the energy trade value between the United States and Mexico comes from U.S. exports of refined petroleum products to Mexico—$37 billion in 2024—which accounted for 64% of the total energy value traded between the two countries.
The inflation-adjusted value of all U.S. energy exports to Mexico declined by 13% in 2024 from a year earlier to $41 billion, falling by less than the previous annual decline of 24% from 2022 to 2023. The annual change was even larger for energy trade in the opposite direction: the inflation-adjusted value of all energy imports from Mexico to the United States decreased by 34% in 2024 to $16 billion, primarily from less imported crude oil, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which has been collecting this type of data since 1996.
Crude oil. In 2024, the United States imported less crude oil from Mexico and paid less per barrel than in 2023. U.S. crude oil imports from Mexico averaged 464,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, 37% less than in 2023, driven in part by falling productivity from oil resources in Mexico as U.S. refiners sought substitutes. Global crude oil prices declined slightly in 2024, with the Brent crude oil spot price averaging $81 per barrel (b), compared with $82/b in 2023. Combined with lower crude oil import volumes, lower crude oil prices reduced the value of U.S. crude oil imports from Mexico by 40% in 2024 compared with 2023. Crude oil imports made up 75% of all U.S. energy imports from Mexico in 2024. The United States has not exported any crude oil to Mexico since 2019.
More recently, it appears the rate of crude oil imports into the United States from Mexico has continued to slow. Through the first six months of this year, U.S. crude oil imports from Mexico have averaged 409,000 b/d, which is 17% lower than the average for the same period in 2024. Although Mexico’s energy exports to the United States are subject to a 10% tariff as of March 6, most crude oil imports from Mexico are likely exempt because they qualify for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement preference. So, the drop in crude oil imports from Mexico is likely due to the continued decline of crude oil production from Mexico’s existing oil fields and limited production growth from the development of new resources.
Petroleum products. In 2024, Mexico was the largest export market for U.S. petroleum products. Mexico has an aging refinery system and struggles to maintain the output needed to satisfy its domestic petroleum product demand. As a result, Mexico imports U.S. petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, and propane. U.S. petroleum product exports to Mexico averaged 1.2 million b/d in 2024, essentially flat compared with 2023. The inflation-adjusted value of U.S. petroleum product exports to Mexico decreased by 10%, dropping to $37 billion in 2024 from $41 billion in 2023, due to lower prices for petroleum products.
Natural gas. Natural gas trade mostly consists of pipeline shipments from the United States to Mexico. The United States exported a record amount of natural gas to the world in 2024: 21.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), up slightly from the 20.8 Bcf/d exported in 2023, the previous record. U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico increased by 4% in 2024, reaching an average of 6.4 Bcf/d. U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico represented 10% of the value of U.S. energy exports to Mexico for the year. Due to lower prices, the trade value of natural gas in 2024 decreased by 31% from 2023 to $4.2 billion.
Through the first six months of 2025, U.S. exports of natural gas to Mexico have continued to accelerate, averaging 6.6 billion Bcf/d, up 5% compared with the same period in 2024. In addition, significant expansions of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity are underway in North America, including projects in Mexico that will use natural gas sourced from the United States. The United States was the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2024, and these projects are poised to add significant new export capacity through 2028.
Electricity. The United States and Mexico trade a small amount of electricity, primarily into California, New Mexico, and Texas, where transmission lines cross the U.S.-Mexico border. In 2024, only 0.1% of U.S. electricity consumption was served by electricity imports from Mexico. During that year, U.S. electricity imports from Mexico increased by 6.0% from 2023 to 6.0 terawatthours (TWh), while U.S. electricity exports to Mexico increased by 2.0% to 1.7 TWh.
Principal contributor: Sean Hill