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North American natural gas markets exhibit seasonal variation, with higher prices in winter because of increased heating demand. This seasonality of prices can be seen in natural gas futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex).
Over the past four years, the spread between the natural gas price for delivery in February and for delivery in November has decreased from an average of 65 cents per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in October 2010 trading to an average of 24 cents in October 2013. The price spread represents the market's expectations of prices in the peak winter month, compared with prices in an autumn month, with a lower spread indicating less expected seasonal variation.
Several factors contributed to the reduction in seasonality in natural gas markets:
The declining price spread suggests that market participants expect less seasonal variability in natural gas prices compared to previous years; however, the eventual price will often be determined more by supply and demand when the physical natural gas is sold. Regardless of what short-term factors affect the natural gas price, long-term trends continue to reduce the seasonality of natural gas markets. The market for future year contracts currently reflects lower seasonal variability than in the past.
Principal contributor: Jeff Barron
Tags: futures, natural gas, prices
