U.S. fuel ethanol exports on track to set record, driving more domestic production

The United States is on track to export a record amount of fuel ethanol for the second year in a row in 2025, driven by growing international demand. This growing market for exports is supporting increased U.S. fuel ethanol production, even as domestic consumption stagnates.

Fuel ethanol is a renewable fuel that is commonly blended with gasoline and is made by fermenting sugar from biomass, typically corn in the United States. The United States is the largest global producer and exporter of fuel ethanol.

U.S. fuel ethanol exports are on track to set new records
In the first seven months of 2025, U.S. fuel ethanol exports averaged 138,000 barrels per day (b/d)—the highest January through July average in our data, which goes back to 2010, and 9% more than 2024’s annual record of fuel ethanol exports. Growing international demand and a slight increase in production capacity are driving the high fuel ethanol exports this year.

With growing exports and flat consumption, exports are making up an increasing share of U.S. fuel ethanol production. Through the first seven months of 2025, 13% of domestic ethanol production was exported, compared with a record 12% in 2024 and a pre-pandemic high of 11% in 2018.

Most of the increase in fuel ethanol exports has gone to the Netherlands

Increased fuel ethanol exports to the Netherlands accounted for most of the growth from 2024 through July 2025, likely reflecting growing demand in Europe. Some of Europe’s busiest trade ports are in the Netherlands. Vortexa tanker tracking data indicate that as the Netherlands has increased fuel ethanol imports from the United States, it has also increased exports to the United Kingdom, France, and Ireland.

In addition, India, the United Kingdom, and Canada, all of which have blend mandates, continue to import substantial volumes of fuel ethanol, with Canada remaining the top destination.

Rising ethanol exports are driving domestic production growth
The expansion of the fuel ethanol export market has led to a proportional increase in U.S. fuel ethanol production. This growth has pushed domestic production beyond the pre-pandemic peak in 2018, despite lower domestic consumption.

U.S. fuel ethanol consumption remains below pre-pandemic levels because of lower gasoline consumption. Fuel ethanol consumption tracks closely with motor gasoline consumption because nearly all motor gasoline sold in the United States is about 10% ethanol by volume (E10) and virtually all fuel ethanol is used for blending with gasoline.

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast ethanol net exports and production to remain near record highs in 2026 due to expected record corn production, in addition to the same factors driving production and exports this year. We forecast consumption to remain below pre-pandemic levels as motor gasoline consumption remains flat.

Principal contributor: Jimmy Troderman