Electric generators plan more natural gas-fired capacity after few additions in 2024
Developers plan to add 18.7 gigawatts (GW) of combined-cycle capacity to the grid by 2028, with 4.3 GW already under construction, according to our latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory. Although electricity generators fueled by natural gas have provided more electricity in the United States than any other source since 2016, hardly any new natural gas capacity came online last year.
Combined-cycle units contribute to grid operation, reliability
Relatively efficient combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) account for most of the natural gas-fired generating capacity in the United States. CCGT units are flexible and can quickly ramp up or down to respond to changes in power supply, supporting the reliability of the transmission system especially as more renewable capacity is integrated in the system.
The design lifetime of CCGT units is typically 25 years to 30 years. However, with comprehensive maintenance, component replacements, and strategic upgrades, their lifetime can be significantly extended.
Only one CCGT came online last year
Only one industrial sector CCGT power generator came online last year, adding 98 megawatts of CCGT capacity to the existing power plant at Plaquemines LNG. The recent decline in CCGT capacity additions can be partly attributed to a shift to bring more renewable capacity online, mainly solar and wind. Operators have also developed battery storage capacity that is often paired with renewables. Decreasing construction costs for renewables as well as federal tax incentives and other policies further encourage investment in renewable energy projects.
Another 18.7 GW of CCGT capacity could come online through 2028
Developers plan to add 1.6 GW of CCGT in 2025, according to our latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, which compiles the current status of existing and proposed utility-scale generating units. Two of the four new plants—the Intermountain Power Project in Utah and Magnolia Power in Louisiana—will include the capability to co-fire with hydrogen and have a combined capacity of 1.5 GW.
In our monthly survey, we ask respondents to provide statuses of planned units to distinguish whether a generator is in early stages of development, such as seeking regulatory approval, or in later stages of construction. More than half of the 3.3 GW of capacity that developers expect to bring online in 2026 is already under construction. Most of the 3.3 GW capacity developers plan to bring online in 2027 is not yet under construction.
Another 10.6 GW might be added in 2028. If realized, that would be the most CCGT capacity coming online in any year since 2018. However, developers of all those planned units are working through regulatory approvals and securing needed equipment, both of which add uncertainty to their construction costs and initial operation date.
Principal contributors: Lindsay Aramayo, Mark Schipper, Mark Morey
Tags: electricity, generation, natural gas