Forecast overview

• Global oil prices. We expect global oil inventories to continue to rise through 2026, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $54 per barrel (b) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) and average $55/b for all of next year. Although we continue to expect crude oil prices to fall in the coming months, our Brent forecast for 2026 is $3/b higher than in last month’s outlook, largely as a result of updated assumptions about inventory builds in China and sanctions on Russia.

• U.S. gasoline and diesel prices. Our forecast assumes lower crude oil prices, the largest component of retail prices, will contribute to lower retail gasoline and diesel prices throughout the forecast period. We expect gasoline prices to fall below $3.00 per gal (gal) on average in 2026, down 10% from 2024, and diesel prices to fall to $3.50/gal in 2026, down 7% from 2024.

• Natural gas prices. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price in our forecast rises to an average of almost $3.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this winter (November–March) following seasonal patterns of prices rising during the winter alongside increased space heating demand. We expect prices to average $4.00/MMBtu in 2026, 16% higher than in 2025, primarily due to increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports amid flat production growth.

• LNG exports. We expect the United States will export 14.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG this year, which is 25% more than last year. Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana has ramped up exports more quickly than we expected, leading us to raise our forecast of LNG exports in 4Q25 by 3% compared with last month’s outlook. We expect U.S. LNG exports will increase by an additional 10% in 2026.

• Electricity demand. Electricity sales to end-use customers in our forecast increase across the United States by 2.4% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. Forecast growth is led by the West South Central region, which includes Texas, as electricity demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities in that region increases.

• Coal production. We forecast coal production to increase in 2025 and then decrease slightly 2026. Coal production is expected to remain over 500 million short tons (MMst) in 2026, about 15 MMst higher than forecasted in the October Short-Term Energy Outlook. The higher forecast for next year mostly results from the reopening of three mines in the Appalachia region and our assumption that coal-fired power plants will not draw down stocks as much as we previously forecast.

You can find more information in the detailed table of forecast changes.