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April 15, 2013

EIA releases additional Annual Energy Outlook 2013 content

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) today released additional content of the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013), updating and expanding the early release version of the AEO2013 Reference case released in December 2012. Today's release includes a Legislation and Regulations section that discusses evolving issues, a Market Trends section that highlights projections for energy markets, and a comparison of AEO2013 with projections from other organizations. Additional components of the AEO2013 will be issued over the coming weeks.

Today's release will be followed by the release of additional related analyses, which will be the subject of Today in Energy articles in the coming weeks, including:

U.S. reliance on imported liquid fuels in alternative scenarios
The decline in net import dependence since 2005 reflects changes in both production and use of fuels. In this article, EIA explores how assumptions regarding resources, production, and consumption that differ from those in the Reference case could increase, decrease, or even eliminate U.S. reliance on net imports of liquid fuels.

Key questions include:

  • What are the key determinants of U.S. liquid fuels supply and demand?
  • Will the supply and demand trends that have reduced dependence on net imports since 2005 intensify or abate?

Competition between coal and natural gas in the electric power sector
There is significant uncertainty about future coal and natural gas prices, as well as about future growth in electricity demand, which determines the need for new generating capacity. Alternative cases with higher and lower coal and natural gas prices and variations in the rate of electricity demand growth are used to examine the potential effects of those uncertainties. The alternative cases illustrate the influence of fuel prices and demand on dispatch and capacity planning decisions.

Nuclear power in AEO2013
This article discusses the projections for nuclear power in AEO2013 and includes several alternative cases that examine the impacts of different assumptions about the long-term operation of existing nuclear power plants, new facilities, deployment of new technologies, and the effects on electricity markets of different assumptions about future nuclear capacity.

No Sunset and Extended Policies cases
EIA updates a discussion included in a number of previous AEOs that compared the results of the Reference case to two cases with different assumptions about the future course of existing energy policies. One case assumes the elimination of sunset provisions in existing energy policies; that is, the policies are assumed not to end as they would under current law. The other case assumes the extension or expansion of a selected group of existing policies—vehicle fuel economy standards, appliance standards, and production tax credits—in addition to the elimination of sunset provisions.

Impact of natural gas liquids growth
This discussion examines recent changes in U.S. natural gas liquids (NGL) markets and how they might evolve. The future disposition of U.S. NGL supplies, particularly in international markets, is also discussed.

A complete version of Annual Energy Outlook 2013 with all components included will be available on May 2, 2013.