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September 7, 2022

OPEC oil export revenues forecast to increase in 2022 but decline in 2023

OPEC net oil export revenues adjusted for inflation based on 2021 dollars
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2022

We forecast that members of OPEC will collectively earn $842 billion in revenues from oil exports in 2022, the most (adjusted for inflation) for the group since 2014. Based on our forecasts of both OPEC liquid fuels production and of crude oil prices in our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), OPEC revenues will be nearly 50% higher in 2022 than in 2021. In 2021, OPEC’s export revenues increased by nearly 70%, after the group collectively had its lowest export revenues in 2020 since 2002. The revenue increase this year would be due to both more production and higher crude oil prices.

Looking ahead to 2023, we forecast that OPEC liquid fuels production will rise to 34.5 million barrels per day (b/d), which is 570,000 b/d more than the 34.0 million b/d we forecast for 2022. Despite the forecast rise in production, we forecast OPEC net revenues will fall in 2023 due to lower global crude oil prices. We expect global oil inventories (which have been building since second-quarter 2022) will continue to build through much of 2023. This additional supply will lower prices globally.

Our forecast is subject to heightened uncertainty due to our uncertainty about:

  • How sanctions will affect Russia’s oil production
  • The global economic outlook
  • The pace of growth of global oil consumption
In addition, some OPEC producers continue to be uncertain about their future oil production because unplanned production outages could significantly affect their production and net export revenue. This uncertainty is particularly great in Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Nigeria. For more information on OPEC revenues, please visit our OPEC Revenues Fact Sheet.

Principal contributor: Hilary Hooper