Annual Energy Outlook 2025 Model Development

In 2024, we conducted extensive model development to support the Annual Outlook 2025. As part of that process, we developed these resources for the public.

Watch the AEO2025 Modeling Update webinar that took place on April 4, 2024.

 

Watch the Administrator’s update about AEO2025.

 

January 2024 Update

Throughout 2024, we will update the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), the integrated energy-economy modeling system we use to produce our AEO. NEMS will feature three new modules that will improve our ability to analyze the future of the U.S. energy system. These new modules are:

• The Hydrogen Market Module, which will represent hydrogen production and pricing, including the impacts of policy, storage, and logistics
• The Carbon Capture, Allocation, Transportation, and Sequestration Module, which will allocate projected supply of captured CO2 across the energy system to utilization or storage
• The Hydrocarbon Supply Module, which will improve the representation of upstream oil and natural gas resources, replacing the legacy NEMS Oil and Gas Supply Module

In addition to bringing these new modules online, we’re enhancing our ability to model the energy systems of the future. We’ll be able to model a zero-carbon emissions electric power sector and improve how we model:

• EV charging
• Distributed generation and combined-heat-and-power technology
• Battery storage in buildings
• Industrial heat pumps
• Recycling in the plastics industry

We’re also making strides in more comprehensively:

• Addressing existing and upcoming laws and regulations (including updated Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards)
• Accounting for heavy-duty vehicle ICE (internal combustion engine) bans
• Phasing out clean energy tax credits
• Updating building end-use standards and ENERGY STAR specifications

What's next?

As we enhance NEMS throughout 2024, we will keep our stakeholders updated about our new NEMS modules.

Questions? Contact us at AnnualEnergyOutlook@eia.gov

Last updated: April 2025