Annual Energy Outlook 2025 Case Descriptions

Release date: April 15, 2025

Overview

Factors such as economic growth, future oil prices, the ultimate size of domestic energy resources, and technological change are often uncertain. To illustrate some of these uncertainties, EIA runs side cases to show how the model responds to changes in key input variables compared with the Reference case. The various cases covered in the Annual Energy Outlook 2025 (AEO2025) are described in this document. AEO2025 has eleven core cases:

• Reference
• High Economic Growth
• Low Economic Growth
• High Oil Price
• Low Oil Price
• High Oil and Gas Supply
• Low Oil and Gas Supply
• High Zero-Carbon Technology Cost
• Low Zero-Carbon Technology Cost
• Alternative Electricity
• Alternative Transportation

Table 1 provides the formal case names, scenario names, and date keys. Results for all AEO2025 cases are available in the AEO table browser.