Natural gas prices are a function of market supply and demand
Increases in natural gas supply generally result in lower natural gas prices, and decreases in supply tend to lead to higher prices.1 Increases in demand generally lead to higher prices, and decreases in demand tend to lead to lower prices. In turn, higher prices tend to moderate or reduce demand and encourage production, and lower prices tend to have the opposite effects.
Three major supply-side factors affect prices:
- Amount of natural gas production
- Level of natural gas in storage
- Volumes of natural gas imports and exports
Three major demand-side factors affect prices:
- Variations in winter and summer weather
- Level of economic growth
- Availability and prices of other fuels
Because of natural gas supply infrastructure constraints and limitations in the ability of many natural gas consumers to switch fuels quickly, short-term increases in demand and/or reductions in supply may cause large changes in natural gas prices, especially during the wintertime.
Domestic natural gas production increased in recent years
From 1986 through 2016, annual U.S. natural gas consumption was greater than domestic dry natural gas production. However, after declining in most years during the period, dry natural gas production began increasing in 2006. The gap between annual production and consumption began to close until domestic dry natural production exceeded total U.S. natural gas consumption in 2017, and annual production remained higher than annual consumption through 2021. U.S. average annual natural gas spot prices and residential prices decreased in most years in 2009 through 2018 before increasing each year in 2019 through 2021. Increases in average annual prices in 2019 through 2021 were partly due to increases in demand for natural gas by most consuming sectors and for export of natural gas, especially liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Economic growth can affect natural gas demand and prices
The strength of the economy influences natural gas markets. During periods of economic growth, increases in demand for goods and services from the commercial and industrial sectors may increase natural gas consumption. Economic-related increases in consumption can be particularly strong in the industrial sector, which uses natural gas as a fuel and a feedstock for making many products such as fertilizer and pharmaceuticals.
Severe weather can disrupt supply
Hurricanes and other severe weather can affect the supply of natural gas. Natural gas prices have been affected when hurricanes disrupted natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico as in 2005 with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In recent years, disruptions in Gulf of Mexico production tend to affect prices less than in the past because the percentage share of total U.S. dry natural gas production from the Gulf of Mexico has declined from about 25% in 2001 to 2% in 2021. Very cold weather can also disrupt natural gas production. If supply disruptions occur when demand for natural gas is high, prices may increase more than expected.
Winter weather strongly influences residential and commercial demand
During cold months, natural gas demand for heating by residential and commercial consumers generally increases overall natural gas demand and can put upward pressure on prices. If unexpected and cold or severe weather occurs, the effect on prices can intensify because supply is often unable to react quickly to short-term increases in demand. The effect of weather on natural gas prices may be greater if the natural gas transmission (pipeline) system is already operating at or near full capacity. Natural gas supplies in storage can help to cushion the impact of high demand during cold weather.
Hot summer weather can increase electric power demand for natural gas
High summer temperatures can have direct and indirect effects on natural gas prices. Hot weather tends to increase demand for air conditioning in homes and buildings, which generally increases the power sector's demand for natural gas. During high demand periods, natural gas prices on the spot market may increase sharply if natural gas supply sources are relatively low or constrained. In addition, increases in natural gas consumption by the electric power sector during the summer may lead to smaller-than-normal injections of natural gas into storage and to lower available storage volumes in the winter, which could affect prices.
Natural gas supplies held in storage play a key role in meeting peak demand
The level of natural gas in underground storage fields has a large influence on overall supply. Storage helps to meet seasonal and sudden increases in demand, which domestic production and imports might not otherwise meet. When demand is lower, storage absorbs excess domestic supply. Storage also supports pipeline operations and trading hub services. Levels of natural gas in storage typically increase from April through October, when overall demand for natural gas is lower. However, in recent years, injections of natural gas into storage have often continued into the first half of November. Levels of natural gas in storage typically decrease from November through March, when demand for natural gas for heating is generally high.
Competition with other fuels can influence natural gas prices
Some large-volume fuel consumers such as power plants and iron, steel, and paper mills can switch between natural gas, coal, and petroleum, depending on the cost of each fuel. When the costs of the other fuels fall, demand for natural gas may decrease, which may reduce natural gas prices. When the prices of competing fuels rise relative to the price of natural gas, switching from those fuels to natural gas may increase natural gas demand and prices. However, the capability of the U.S. manufacturing sector to switch fuels has declined in recent decades. Favorable natural gas prices in recent years have contributed to increased natural gas use by the electric power sector.
1 Unless otherwise indicated, prices are nominal prices or prices that have not been adjusted to remove the effect of changes in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. Prices that are adjusted for changes in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar are identified as real prices.
Last updated: October 27, 2022 with most recent data available at the time of update.