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Natural Gas Weekly Update

for week ending September 11, 2024   |  Release date:  September 12, 2024   |  Next release:  September 19, 2024   |   Previous weeks

JUMP TO: Prices | Supply and Demand | Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) | Rig Count | Other Market Drivers | Storage

Today in Energy

Recent Today in Energy analysis of natural gas markets is available on the EIA website.

Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, September 11, 2024)

Prices

  • Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 8 cents from $2.06 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.14/MMBtu yesterday.
  • Henry Hub futures price: The price of the October 2024 NYMEX contract increased 12.5 cents from $2.145/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.270/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging October 2024 through September 2025 futures contracts increased 2.5 cents to $2.959/MMBtu.
  • Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot price changes were mixed this report week (Wednesday, September 4 to Wednesday, September 11). Price changes ranged from an increase of 12 cents at FGT Citygate to a decrease of $1.07 at both the Waha Hub and Northwest Sumas.
    • Prices in the Northeast increased this report week despite lower consumption, following the Henry Hub price. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price rose 10 cents from $1.88/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.98/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transco Zone 6 NY trading point for New York City, the price increased 9 cents from $1.59/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.68/MMBtu yesterday. Total consumption of natural gas decreased this week in the Northeast, driven by a 12% (1.2 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) decrease in consumption in the electric power sector, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, which was partially offset by a 15% (0.3 Bcf/d) increase in consumption in the residential and commercial sector. Temperatures in the Boston Area averaged 67°F this week, resulting in 1 heating degree day (6 fewer than normal) and 13 cooling degree days (17 fewer than normal).
    • Prices in the South were mixed this report week. The Houston Ship Channel price fell 8 cents from $1.98/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.90/MMBtu yesterday. The FGT Citygate price rose 12 cents from $2.63/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.75/MMBtu yesterday. Energy Transfer, operator of the FGT pipeline that delivers natural gas to Florida, posted multiple capacity constraint notices on segments of the system in Louisiana. Hurricane Francine made landfall yesterday evening in Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane. In preparation for the storm, personnel evacuated from production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in an average 0.8 Bcf/d of natural gas production being shut in since Tuesday, based on data from the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Feedgas to Cameron LNG in Louisiana began to decline ahead of the storm.
    • Prices in the West decreased this report week. At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price fell $1.07 from $1.70/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.63/MMBtu yesterday. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 40 cents from $2.64/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.24/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 37 cents from $2.11/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.74/MMBtu yesterday. Average temperatures in the Riverside Area, inland from Los Angeles, reached an intraweek high of 97°F (18°F higher than normal) on Friday but declined to 74°F yesterday (4°F lower than normal).

    Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

  • International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices decreased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia decreased 15 cents to a weekly average of $13.78/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 52 cents to a weekly average of $11.76/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending September 13, 2023), the prices were $13.36/MMBtu in East Asia and $10.99/MMBtu at TTF.
  • Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 37 cents/MMBtu, averaging $6.20/MMBtu for the week ending September 11. Ethane prices rose 11% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel increased 9%, widening the ethane premium to natural gas by 18%. The ethylene spot price rose 18% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane increased 20%. Propane prices decreased 11%, while Brent crude oil prices decreased 7% week over week, narrowing the propane discount to crude oil by 1%. Normal butane prices fell 9%, and isobutane and natural gasoline prices each fell 5%.
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Supply and Demand

  • Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.8% (0.9 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.6% (0.6 Bcf/d) to average 101.5 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada decreased by 3.5% (0.2 Bcf/d) from last week.
  • Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 3.0% (2.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 7.7% (3.2 Bcf/d) week over week. Natural gas consumption in the industrial sector increased by 1.2% (0.3 Bcf/d) week over week, and consumption in the residential and commercial sector increased by 9.6% (0.8 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 2.2% (0.2 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 13.4 Bcf/d, or 0.1 Bcf/d higher than last week.
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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

  • Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased by 0.1 Bcf/d from last week to 13.4 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 0.2% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) to 8.0 Bcf/d, and natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased by 3.8% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 4.4 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged.
  • Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-three LNG vessels (eight from Sabine Pass, five from Corpus Christi, four from Freeport, three from Cameron, two from Calcasieu Pass, and one from Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 87 Bcf departed the United States between September 5 and September 11, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
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Rig Count

  • According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, September 3, the natural gas rig count decreased by 1 rig from a week ago to 94 rigs as the Permian dropped 1 rig. The number of oil-directed rigs was unchanged from a week ago at 483 rigs. The Permian added two rigs. The DJ-Niobrara dropped one rig, and one rig was dropped among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 5 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 582 rigs, 50 fewer rigs than a year ago.
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Storage

  • Net injections into storage totaled 40 Bcf for the week ending September 6, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 67 Bcf and last year's net injections of 50 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,387 Bcf, which is 296 Bcf (10%) more than the five-year average and 198 Bcf (6%) more than last year at this time.
  • According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 29 Bcf to 68 Bcf, with a median estimate of 46 Bcf.
  • The average rate of injections into storage is 23% lower than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 11.3 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 4,008 Bcf on October 31, which is 296 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf for that time of year.
More storage data and analysis can be found on the Natural Gas Storage Dashboard and the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report.

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See also:

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Natural gas spot prices
Spot Prices ($/MMBtu)
Thu,
5-Sep
Fri,
6-Sep
Mon,
9-Sep
Tue,
10-Sep
Wed,
11-Sep
Henry Hub 2.03 2.10 2.04 2.13 2.14
New York 1.56 N/A 1.54 1.67 1.68
Chicago 1.79 1.80 1.79 1.80 1.82
Cal. Comp. Avg.* 2.09 2.05 2.02 2.01 1.76
*Avg. of NGI's reported prices for: Malin, PG&E Citygate, and Southern California Border Avg. Data Source: NGI's Daily Gas Price Index
Natural gas futures prices
Natural gas liquids spot prices


U.S. natural gas supply - Gas Week: (9/5/24 - 9/11/24)
Average daily values (billion cubic feet)
this week
last week
last year
Marketed production
115.1
115.9
117.5
Dry production
101.5
102.2
104.1
Net Canada imports
6.2
6.4
5.6
LNG pipeline deliveries
0.1
0.1
0.1
Total supply
107.8
108.6
109.8

Data source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
Note: This table reflects any data revisions that may have occurred since the previous week's posting. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline deliveries represent natural gas sendout from LNG import terminals.

U.S. natural gas consumption - Gas Week: (9/5/24 - 9/11/24)
Average daily values (billion cubic feet)
this week
last week
last year
U.S. consumption
70.0
72.2
74.8
    Power
38.9
42.1
44.4
    Industrial
22.1
21.9
22.0
    Residential/commercial
9.0
8.3
8.4
Mexico exports
6.8
7.0
6.8
Pipeline fuel use/losses
6.6
6.7
7.0
LNG pipeline receipts
13.4
13.3
12.4
Total demand
96.8
99.1
101.0

Data source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
Note: This table reflects any data revisions that may have occurred since the previous week's posting. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline receipts represent pipeline deliveries to LNG export terminals.

Natural gas supply


Weekly natural gas rig count and average Henry Hub
Rigs
Tue, September 03, 2024
Change from
 
last week
last year
Oil rigs
483
0.0%
-5.8%
Natural gas rigs
94
-1.1%
-16.8%
Note: Excludes any miscellaneous rigs
Rig numbers by type
Tue, September 03, 2024
Change from
 
last week
last year
Vertical
14
0.0%
0.0%
Horizontal
520
-0.2%
-7.5%
Directional
48
0.0%
-14.3%
Data source: Baker Hughes Company


Working gas in underground storage
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
Region
2024-09-06
2024-08-30
change
East
780
761
19
Midwest
950
922
28
Mountain
273
270
3
Pacific
285
289
-4
South Central
1,098
1,105
-7
Total
3,387
3,347
40
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Form EIA-912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.
Working gas in underground storage
Historical comparisons
Year ago
9/6/23
5-year average
2019-2023
Region
Stocks (Bcf)
% change
Stocks (Bcf)
% change
East
772
1.0
737
5.8
Midwest
896
6.0
875
8.6
Mountain
223
22.4
195
40.0
Pacific
258
10.5
264
8.0
South Central
1,039
5.7
1,020
7.6
Total
3,189
6.2
3,091
9.6
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Form EIA-912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.


Temperature – heating & cooling degree days (week ending Sep 05)
 
HDDs
CDDs
Region
Current total
Deviation from normal
Deviation from last year
Current total
Deviation from normal
Deviation from last year
New England
15
4
8
10
-5
-25
Middle Atlantic
7
1
4
22
-5
-21
E N Central
11
0
4
29
2
-20
W N Central
10
-6
7
36
-1
-31
South Atlantic
2
1
2
80
4
-2
E S Central
0
-1
0
87
18
7
W S Central
0
-1
0
99
-5
-32
Mountain
3
-16
-4
64
10
15
Pacific
1
-6
-3
66
29
46
United States
6
-3
2
56
5
-5
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: HDDs=heating degree days; CDDs=cooling degree days

   Average temperature (°F)


   7-day mean ending Sep 05, 2024

Mean Temperature (F) 7-Day Mean ending Sep 05, 2024

        Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

  Deviation between average and normal temperature (°F)


   7-day mean ending Sep 05, 2024

Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Sep 05, 2024

        Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

 

Monthly U.S. dry shale natural gas production by formation is available in the Short-Term Energy Outlook.