U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
WASHINGTON DC 20585
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
June 10, 2025
EIA expects low crude oil prices and declining rig count to affect U.S. crude oil production trends through 2026
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to near $60 per barrel by the end of the year and to average about $59 per barrel in 2026. EIA expects the low price of crude oil to affect both U.S. crude oil production and retail gasoline prices in the short term.
In its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average about 13.4 million barrels per day this year, just below the record highs earlier this year. For 2026, the forecast is slightly lower than 2025 levels. EIA expects U.S. retail gasoline prices to average below $3.10 per gallon through the end of 2026, which is about 6% lower than the 2024 average price.
| U.S. energy market indicators | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel) | $81 | $66 | $59 |
| Retail gasoline price (dollars per gallon) | $3.30 | $3.10 | $3.10 |
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.4 |
| Natural gas price at Henry Hub (dollars per million British thermal units) | $2.20 | $4.00 | $4.90 |
| U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports (billion cubic feet per day) | 12 | 15 | 16 |
| Shares of U.S. electricity generation | |||
| Natural gas | 42% | 40% | 40% |
| Coal | 16% | 16% | 15% |
| Renewables | 23% | 25% | 27% |
| Nuclear | 19% | 19% | 18% |
| U.S. GDP (percentage change) | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| U.S. CO2 emissions (billion metric tons) | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2025 | |||
Some key highlights from the June STEO include:
- Global oil supply, demand, and prices: EIA revised its 2025 global oil production forecast slightly upward and its global petroleum products consumption forecast slightly downward for both 2025 and 2026, leading to an expectation of growing global oil inventories. EIA expects oil inventories to grow by about 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 600,000 barrels per day in 2026. EIA’s expectations for inventory growth are the primary reason it expects oil prices to decline through this year and next year.
- U.S. crude oil production: Domestic crude oil production reached an all-time high of 13.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2025. EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to decline from that high through the end of 2026 as oil producers respond to lower prices. Data from Baker Hughes shows the number of active drilling rigs declined last month by much more than EIA had expected. Fewer active rigs affect EIA’s forecast for how many wells U.S. operators will drill and complete throughout 2026. EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average about 13.4 million barrels per day this year and just below that amount in 2026.
- U.S. gasoline prices: Another effect of lower oil prices is that EIA expects lower average U.S. gasoline prices through 2026. Regular-grade retail gasoline prices average $3.10 per gallon in the third quarter of 2025 in EIA’s forecast, down 7% from the same period last year. EIA expects retail gasoline prices in the eastern part of the country to be below $3.00 per gallon for most of the next year and a half. On the West Coast, EIA expects refinery capacity reductions to cause a 4% annual price increase next year.
- Natural gas prices: EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average about $4.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 and $4.90/MMBtu in 2026, compared with $2.20/MMBtu in 2024.
- Electricity demand: EIA revised its forecast for electricity demand growth in 2025 upward by about 1% to reflect greater expected demand growth in the commercial and industrial sectors, particularly from data centers and manufacturing operations. This growth in power demand is especially notable in regions managed by the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas and PJM independent system operators. EIA expects that U.S. commercial sector electricity consumption will grow by 3% in 2025 and by 5% in 2026.
- Electricity generation: EIA expects total U.S. electricity generation this summer will be about 1% greater than last summer. EIA expects higher natural gas prices this summer to result in less generation from natural gas-fired power plants compared with last summer, which is expected to be offset by more generation from coal, solar, and hydro.
- Trade policy assumptions: The U.S. macroeconomic outlook we use in the STEO is based on S&P Global’s macroeconomic model. S&P Global’s most recent model reflects the tariffs announced in April and includes the 90-day temporary suspension of tariffs granted to certain countries. However, the model was finalized before the ruling by the Court of International Trade on May 28th that temporarily halted all reciprocal tariffs. As a result, our macroeconomic forecast assumes lower tariffs on China’s products compared with last month’s STEO and 10% tariffs on countries subject to the 90-day temporary suspension. These differences in tariff rates likely have offsetting effects on the macroeconomic forecast.
The full June 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website.
The product described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. The views in the product and this press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.
EIA Program Contact: Tim Hess, STEO@eia.gov
EIA Press Contact: Chris Higginbotham, EIAMedia@eia.gov