U.S. petroleum products exports set new record in the first half of 2023

U.S. exports of petroleum products grew 2% to nearly 6.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of 2023 (1H2023) compared to the same period in 2022, the most first-half-of-the-year exports in our Petroleum Supply Monthly data, which date back to 1981 (Figure 1). Exports of propane and other hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs) drove the increase, as exports of other major petroleum products such as motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel all decreased compared with 1H22. Export growth in the first half of 2023 was lower than growth in the first half of 2022, when exports quickly rose to meet increased demand in Europe after the region took measures to reduce imports from Russia. U.S. exports of crude oil also continued to increase in 1H23, rising to 4.0 million b/d, 19% higher than 1H22.

U.S. propane exports averaged 1.5 million b/d in the first half of 2023, an 8% increase (119,000 b/d) from 1H22 (Figure 2). Propane was the most-exported U.S. petroleum product in 1H23, continuing a trend that began in 2020, making propane the primary driver of overall higher U.S. petroleum product exports so far this year. U.S. exports of propane and other HGLs to Asia, where they are primarily consumed as feedstock in the petrochemical industry, have grown rapidly in recent years. These increased exports to Asian markets distinguish propane from other major U.S. refined product exports such as distillate and gasoline, which mostly flow to destinations in the Americas. About 59% of U.S. propane exports went to Asia in 1H23, mostly to Japan, China, and South Korea, matching the historical trend of previous years. Propane exports to destinations in Europe decreased compared with 1H22, as did propane exports to destinations in Central and South America. Other HGL exports were also a significant driver of export growth in 1H23, increasing by 9% (85,000 b/d) compared with 1H22.

The United States exported 1.1 million b/d of distillate fuel oil in 1H23, a 5% (51,000 b/d) decrease from the same time last year, led by lower exports to destinations in Central and South America (Figure 3). Despite the decrease, Central and South America combined remains the largest destination for U.S. distillate, accounting for 57% of all U.S. distillate exports. The United States also exported less distillate to Canada and the Asia and Oceania region compared with 1H22.

Despite lower total distillate exports, distillate exports to Europe increased in 1H23 compared with 1H22, following the EU’s complete import ban on Russia’s petroleum products from the beginning of 2023. U.S. distillate fuel oil exports to destinations in Europe averaged 138,000 b/d in 1H23 compared to 56,000 b/d in the 1H22. Distillate exports to Mexico also increased, and among individual countries, the largest recipients of U.S. distillate exports were Mexico, Chile, Ecuador, Panama, and Peru. The UK and the Netherlands were the largest destination countries for U.S. distillate exports into Europe.

The increase in distillate exports to Europe even as exports to other destinations declined partially reflects rerouted trade flows in response to sanctions on petroleum product imports from Russia. Exports to Europe from the United States are replacing distillate supplies that previously came from Russia, which now lack market access in Europe and therefore are being exported to destinations further abroad. In particular, Brazil has reportedly been a significant destination for distillate from Russia, while the country’s distillate imports from the United States are lower compared with last year.

U.S. exports of gasoline in 1H23 were 4% (32,000 b/d) lower than in 1H22. Gasoline exports to Mexico, which accounted for 56% of total gasoline exports in the first half of the year, also fell by 4%. After Mexico, the largest destinations for U.S. gasoline exports so far this year include Guatemala, Canada, Chile, and Peru. Gasoline exports to Central and South America increased in 1H23 compared with 1H22, while exports to Canada and Europe were both lower than in 1H22. At 859,000 b/d, 1H23 exports of gasoline are lower than exports of distillate fuel oil, propane, or other HGLs.

Although our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) does not forecast gross U.S. petroleum product exports, our forecast of net petroleum product exports—equal to total exports minus total imports—from our September 2023 STEO expects lower annual average net exports of distillate and gasoline in 2023, but higher net exports of HGLs (Figure 4). We currently estimate 2023 net exports of distillate to decline by 41,000 b/d compared with 2022, and we expect net exports of gasoline to decrease by 112,000 b/d. We estimate total HGL net exports—including propane—will increase on an annual average basis this year by 227,000 b/d as historical trends of increasing production and export capacity continue to underpin growth in HGL exports. In 2024, we expect net exports of all three products to increase, with HGLs up 128,000 b/d, distillate up 77,000 b/d, and total gasoline up 75,000 b/d.

For questions about This Week in Petroleum, contact the Petroleum and Liquid Fuels Markets Team at 202-586-5840.

Tags: exports/imports, liquid fuels, oil/petroleum, petroleum products