Natural Gas

Market Highlights:

Prices

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose $2.29 from $3.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $5.74/MMBtu yesterday.
• Henry Hub futures prices: The price of the December 2022 NYMEX contract increased 33.5 cents, from $5.865/MMBtu last Wednesday to $6.200/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging December 2022 through November 2023 futures contracts climbed 20.3 cents to $5.349/MMBtu.
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, November 9, to Wednesday, November 16). Week-over-week price changes at major hubs ranged from a decrease of $0.07 at SoCal Citygate in Southern California to an increase of $5.26 at the Algonquin Citygate in the Northeast.
• Prices rose in the Northeast as demand for home heating increased. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went up $5.26 from $2.32/MMBtu last Wednesday to $7.58/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price increased $5.14 from $2.23/MMBtu last Wednesday to $7.37/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Boston Area averaged 51°F this report week, 7°F lower than last report week, resulting in 42 more heating degree days (HDD). Similarly, temperatures in the New York-Central Park Area averaged 52°F this report week, 9°F lower than the last report week, resulting in 53 more HDDs. Residential and commercial consumption of natural gas in the Northeast increased by 76%, or 4.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), compared with last week, according to data from PointLogic.
• Heating demand also rose in the Midwest this week, driving price increases. At the Chicago Citygate, the price increased $2.05 from $3.65/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.70/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Chicago Area averaged 41°F this week, 15°F lower than last report week, resulting in 109 more HDDs. Residential and commercial consumption of natural gas in the Midwest increased 119% (4.7 Bcf/d) compared with last week, according to data from PointLogic.
• The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, rose $2.90 this report week, from $2.16/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.06/MMBtu yesterday. Like other parts of the country, temperatures dropped in Texas this week, resulting in increased demand for natural gas in the residential and commercial sectors for space heating. Temperatures in the Midland-Odessa Area in West Texas averaged 45°F this week, resulting in 140 HDDs, 68 more HDDs than is normal for this time of year. Consumption of natural gas in the residential and commercial sectors in West Texas increased 0.3 Bcf/d this week, or 130%, according to data from PointLogic. Natural gas production in West Texas also decreased by 1% (0.1 Bcf/d). The increase in price at the Waha Hub resulted in the narrowing of the difference between it and the price at the Henry Hub. The Waha Hub traded 68 cents below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared with last Wednesday when it traded $1.29 below the Henry Hub price.

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• International futures prices: International natural gas futures price movements were mixed this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia decreased 85 cents to a weekly average of $27.06/MMBtu, and natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands, the most liquid natural gas market in Europe, increased 15 cents to a weekly average of $34.10/MMBtu.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 2 cents/MMBtu, averaging $8.95/MMBtu for the week ending November 16. Ethane prices rose 1%, while natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel rose 108%, narrowing the ethane premium to natural gas by 63%. Ethylene spot prices were practically unchanged. Propane prices fell 1%, while the weekly average price of crude oil fell 4%, resulting in a 9% decrease in the propane discount relative to crude oil. Normal butane prices remained relatively unchanged, and isobutane prices rose 4%. Natural gasoline prices followed crude oil prices, falling by 3%.

Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from PointLogic, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 3.0% (3.1 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 0.9% (0.9 Bcf/d) to a weekly average of 101 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada increased by 57.2% (2.2 Bcf/d) from last week.
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 25.2% (18.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from PointLogic. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 7.1% (2.1 Bcf/d) week over week. Industrial sector consumption increased by 7.1% (1.6 Bcf/d) week over week, and residential and commercial sector consumption increased by 76.6% (14.4 Bcf/d) as below-normal temperatures were experienced across most of the country. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 1.2% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 12.0 Bcf/d, or 0.5 Bcf/d higher than last week.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Overall natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased by 0.5 Bcf/d week over week to average 12.0 Bcf/d this report week, according to data from PointLogic. Natural gas deliveries to LNG export terminals in South Louisiana increased by 0.5 Bcf/d to 8.4 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to other LNG terminals averaged a combined 3.6 Bcf/d.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-two LNG vessels (eight from Sabine Pass, five from Cameron, four from Corpus Christi, two each from Cove Point and Calcasieu Pass, and one from Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 82 Bcf departed the United States between November 10 and November 16, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, November 8, the natural gas rig count stayed flat at 155 rigs, as gains of 1 rig each in the Eagle Ford, Haynesville, and Utica were offset by a loss of 2 rigs in the Marcellus and 1 rig in an unspecified region. The number of oil-directed rigs increased by 9 rigs from a week ago to 622 rigs. The Cana Woodford lost one rig, the Haynesville added one rig, the Permian added four rigs, and five rigs were added in an unspecified region. The total rig count, which includes 2 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 779 rigs, which is 223 more rigs than the same week last year.

Storage

• The net injections into storage totaled 64 Bcf for the week ending November 11, compared with the five-year (2017–2021) average net withdrawals of 5 Bcf and last year's net injections of 23 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,644 Bcf, which is 7 Bcf (less than 1%) lower than the five-year average and 4 Bcf (less than 1%) more than last year at this time.
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 50 Bcf to 72 Bcf, with a median estimate of 63 Bcf.

See also:

• Natural Gas Analysis Reports
• Short-Term Energy Outlook