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National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Documentation Archive

Residential Demand Module - NEMS Documentation

June 11, 2020

Introduction

Purpose of this report

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and structure of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Demand Module (RDM). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and Fortran source code.

This document serves three purposes. First, this report meets the legal requirement of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its reports according to Public Law 93-275, section 57(b)(1). Second, it is a reference document that provides a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. Finally, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, model performance evaluations, and parameter refinements.

Model summary

The NEMS Residential Demand Module is used in developing long-term projections and energy policy analysis during the time horizon beginning with EIA’s most recent Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) (the module’s base year) through 2050 (the current projection horizon). The model generates projections of energy demand (or energy consumption; the terms are used interchangeably throughout the document) for the residential sector by end-use service, fuel type, and U.S. census division.

The RDM uses inputs from NEMS such as energy prices and macroeconomic indicators to generate outputs needed in the NEMS integration process. These inputs are used by the module to generate energy consumption by fuel type and census division in the residential sector. NEMS uses these projections to compute equilibrium energy prices and quantities.

The RDM is an analytic tool that is used to address current and proposed legislation, private sector initiatives, and technological developments that affect the residential sector. Examples of policy analyses include assessing the potential impacts of the following:

  • New end-use technologies
  • Changes in fuel prices as a result of tax policies
  • Changes in equipment energy-efficiency standards and building energy codes
  • Financial incentives for energy efficiency and renewable energy investments

Documentation

U.S. Energy Information Administration, Residential Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation, DOE/EIA-M067 (2020) (Washington, DC, June 2020).

Archival media

The module, as part of the NEMS system, has been archived for the Reference case published in the Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020), DOE/EIA-0383 (2020)

Model contact

Kevin Jarzomski
Operations Research Analyst
Buildings Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

kevin.jarzomski@eia.gov
(202) 586-3208

U.S. Energy Information Administration
1000 Independence Avenue SW
EI-32
Washington, DC 20585

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