Crude oil prices fell in 2025 amid oversupply

Crude oil prices generally declined in 2025 with supplies in the global crude oil market exceeding demand. Crude oil inventory builds in China muted some of the price decline. Events such as Israel’s June 13 strikes on Iran and attacks between Russia and Ukraine targeting oil infrastructure periodically supported prices.

On a monthly average basis, the price of Brent crude oil declined from a high of $79 per barrel (b) in January to a low of $63/b in December, which was the lowest monthly average price since early 2021. The annual average price was $69/b, the lowest since 2020, even when adjusting for inflation.

In the first half of the year, crude oil prices declined in response to slowing economic activity, which can affect global oil demand. Prices decreased in the first quarter (1Q25) with a contraction in U.S. GDP, and prices fell nearly $15/b further in April amid expectations that escalating tariffs among large economies could continue to slow economic growth.

In the second half of the year, OPEC+ announcements that increased crude oil production targets for the group increased the prospect of an oversupplied market. In our most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook, we estimate that global production of crude oil and liquid fuels outpaced consumption throughout 2025, with implied stock builds of more than 2.5 million barrels per day in the final two quarters of the year. These stock builds were the largest recorded since 2000, aside from in 2020.

Generally, crude oil prices tend to decrease as global petroleum stocks increase. However, crude oil inventory builds in China likely limited price declines from the stock builds, essentially acting as a source of demand by removing barrels from the global market.

Principal contributors: Alex de Keyserling, Jimmy Troderman