U.S. energy consumption growth decreases in the near term in the latest AEO

U.S. energy consumption decreases in the next several years before increasing again in the early 2040s through 2050, according to our recently published Annual Energy Outlook 2025 (AEO2025). U.S. energy consumption in 2050 is lower than in 2024 in most of the scenarios we explore in AEO2025, but the range of outcomes varies significantly based on the underlying assumptions.

For AEO2025, we made significant updates to the model that underpins the results, adding a hydrogen market module; a carbon capture, allocation, transportation, and sequestration module; and an enhanced upstream oil and natural gas resources module. We also enhanced many existing modules to better reflect market dynamics and emerging technologies.

Our policy assumptions are central to understanding our AEO2025 projections. In most of the cases we modeled, we only considered laws and regulations implemented as of December 2024. Legislation, regulations, executive actions, and court rulings after that date are not included.

You can view and chart the full results on the AEO2025 web page.

In addition to our usual Reference case and eight side cases, we have included two alternative policy cases this year to examine the effects of electricity and transportation sector policies implemented since our last AEO.

Principal contributors: Office of Energy Analysis staff