- Key takeaways from the Reference case and side cases
- The Annual Energy Outlook 2022 explores long-term energy trends in the United States
- What is the AEO2022 Reference case?
- What are the side cases?
- Motor gasoline remains the most prevalent transportation fuel despite electric vehicles gaining market share
- Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dip through 2035 before climbing later in the projection years
- Energy consumption increases through 2050 as population and economic growth outweighs efficiency gains
- Electricity continues to be the fastest-growing energy source in buildings, with renewables and natural gas providing most of the incremental electricity supply
- Electricity demand grows slowly across the projection period, which increases competition among fuels
- Renewable electricity generation increases more rapidly than overall electricity demand through 2050
- Battery storage complements growth in renewables generation and reduces natural gas-fired and oil-fired generation during peak hours
- As coal and nuclear generating capacity retire, new capacity additions come largely from wind and solar technologies
- U.S. production of natural gas and petroleum and other liquids rises amid growing demand for exports and industrial uses
- Driven by rising prices, U.S. crude oil production in the Reference case returns to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 and stabilizes over the long term
- Refinery closures lower domestic crude oil distillation operating capacity, but refinery utilization rates remain flat over the long term
- Consumption of renewable diesel increases as a share of the domestic fuel mix
Production
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