U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis

Natural Gas

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Natural Gas Weekly Update

for week ending March 13, 2013 | Release date: March 14, 2013 | Next release: March 21, 2013 | Previous weeks

JUMP TO: In The News | Overview | Prices/Supply/Demand | Storage

In the News:

EIA projects end-of-season inventories less than 2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf).

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects working inventories of natural gas in storage will end the heating season at levels significantly lower than last year. This month's Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that at the end of March, inventories will total 1,959 billion cubic feet (Bcf), which is lower than last year's record high level but still greater than recent years. Last year at the end of March working inventories totaled 2,477 Bcf, which was the result of robust natural gas production combined with low demand from a warm winter. For much of this winter heating season, inventories have remained greater than the five-year ( 2008-2012) average and below the previous year's levels.

EIA expects that total net additions to inventories over the 2013 summer injection season (April 1 to October 31) will total 1,961 Bcf. In the past 5 years, the overall net additions to working gas in storage during the injection season have averaged 2,032 Bcf. Due to the high end of winter inventories last year, net injections during the 2012 summer season only totaled 1,453 Bcf.

Overview:

(For the Week Ending Wednesday, March 13, 2013)

Natural gas prices at major trading hubs increased moderately for the report week (Wednesday to Wednesday). Henry Hub prices increased from $3.57 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $3.72 per MMBtu yesterday, while natural gas prices at Algonquin Citygate, for delivery into Boston increased from $7.77 per MMBtu to $8.69 per MMBtu.
The April 2013 New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) contract increased by 21 cents, from $3.470 per MMBtu last Wednesday to close at $3.680 per MMBtu yesterday.
Working natural gas in storage declined to 1,938 Bcf as of Friday, March 8, according to EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). An implied storage withdrawal of 145 Bcf for the week moved storage levels 440 Bcf below year-ago levels, and 198 Bcf above the 5-year average.
The Baker Hughes Incorporated natural gas rotary rig count decreased by 13 to 407 active units on the week ending March 8, 2013. The oil-directed rig count increased by 8 to 1,341 units.

more summary data

Prices:

Natural gas prices rose modestly at most locations during the report week (Wednesday, March 6, to Wednesday, March 13), particularly in New England. Lingering cold temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast likely contributed to the price increases. Temperatures in New England were warmer than normal most days of the previous week, alleviating pressure on the Algonquin Citygate price, which fell from $7.77 per MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.80 per MMBtu on Tuesday. However, on Wednesday, the Algonquin Citygate price increased by 50 percent or $2.89 per MMBtu, likely due to expectations of colder temperatures on Thursday, and ended the week higher than it started at $8.69 per MMBtu. The snow and cold continue to be widespread in the Midwest and Northeast, providing support for the current price environment.

The Nymex April futures price rose from $3.470 per MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.680 per MMBtu yesterday. During the week, the futures price spread over the Henry Hub daily spot price averaged between -10 and 6 cents per MMBtu. The 12-Month Strip (average of April 2013 to March 2014 contracts) gained 16 cents per MMBtu, starting at $3.761 per MMBtu last Wednesday and landing at $3.916 per MMBtu yesterday.

According to estimates from BENTEK Energy Services LLC (Bentek), average natural gas consumption for the nation fell this report week by 11.5 percent over last week's daily average. Natural gas consumption decreased in all sectors and most notably in the residential/commercial and power sectors, which fell by 15.7 and 12.7 percent, respectively, for the report week. This is the result of warmer weather in most parts of the country compared with the previous week.

Bentek estimates that the average daily natural gas supply for this report week increased modestly by 0.5 percent over the previous week's daily average. Dry natural gas production and imports from Canada increased by 0.4 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, from the previous week.

more price data

Storage

Working natural gas in storage decreased to 1,938 Bcf as of Friday, March 8, according to EIA's WNGSR. This represents an implied net withdrawal of 145 Bcf from the previous week. This week's net withdrawal was 71 Bcf larger than the 5-year average net withdrawal of 74 Bcf, and 79 Bcf larger than last year's average net withdrawal of 66 Bcf. Inventories are currently 440 Bcf (18.5 percent) less than last year at this time and 198 Bcf (11.4 percent) greater than the 5-year average of 1,740 Bcf.

All three storage regions posted declines this week. Inventories in the East, West, and Producing regions decreased by 92 Bcf (the 5-year average net withdrawal is 57 Bcf), 5 Bcf (the 5-year average net withdrawal is 7 Bcf), and 48 Bcf (the 5-year average net withdrawal is 10 Bcf), respectively. In the Producing region, working natural gas inventories decreased 15 Bcf (7.9 percent) in salt cavern facilities and decreased 33 Bcf (5.3 percent) in nonsalt cavern facilities.

Temperatures in the Lower 48 states averaged 38.0 degrees, compared to 44.4 degrees last year and the 30-year normal of 41.3 degrees. While overall temperatures were a few degrees cooler than normal, temperatures varied somewhat across Census divisions. In the South, the East South Central and South Atlantic Census divisions were particularly cool, averaging 9.1 and 8.0 degrees cooler, respectively, than the 30-year normal. In the Northeast, the New England Census division was relatively warm, averaging 2.6 degrees warmer than the 30-year normal. Heating degree-days nationwide were 11.8 percent above normal and 27.7 percent above last year.

more storage data

See also:

Spot Prices Graph
Spot Prices Table
NYMEX Prices Graph

Spot Prices ($/MMBtu)	Thu, 07-Mar	Fri, 08-Mar	Mon, 11-Mar	Tue, 12-Mar	Wed, 13-Mar
Henry Hub	3.54	3.57	3.64	3.71	3.72
New York	3.94	3.75	3.87	4.00	4.17
Chicago	3.67	3.70	3.75	3.86	3.86
Cal. Comp. Avg,*	3.69	3.70	3.72	3.75	3.77
Futures ($/MMBtu)
April Contract	3.582	3.629	3.649	3.645	3.680
May Contract	3.627	3.673	3.689	3.684	3.718
*Avg. of NGI's reported prices for: Malin, PG&E citygate, and Southern California Border Avg.
Source: NGI's Daily Gas Price Index

Supply Table
Demand Table
Daily Suppy/Demand Graph

U.S. Natural Gas Supply - Gas Week: (3/6/13 - 3/13/13)
	Percent change for week compared with:
	last year	last week
Gross Production	1.32%	0.42%
Dry Production	1.31%	0.41%
Canadian Imports	2.00%	3.27%
West (Net)	-15.16%	4.35%
MidWest (Net)	30.41%	1.27%
Northeast (Net)	19.72%	3.88%
LNG Imports	-51.32%	-37.61%
Total Supply	1.08%	0.46%
Source: BENTEK Energy LLC

U.S. Consumption - Gas Week: (3/6/13 - 3/13/13)
	Percent change for week compared with:
	last year	last week
U.S. Consumption	11.25%	-11.55%
Power	-15.91%	-12.67%
Industrial	5.47%	-2.02%
Residential/Commercial	38.44%	-15.72%
Total Demand	11.48%	-11.29%
Source: BENTEK Energy LLC

Spot Prices vs. Rigs Graph
Rigs Table

Rigs
	Fri, March 08, 2013	Change from
	Fri, March 08, 2013	last week	last year
Oil Rigs	1,341	0.60%	3.47%
Natural Gas Rigs	407	-3.10%	-39.25%
Miscellaneous	4	0.00%	-42.86%

Rig Numbers by Type
	Fri, March 08, 2013	Change from
	Fri, March 08, 2013	last week	last year
Vertical	427	-0.93%	-28.48%
Horizontal	1,130	-0.96%	-2.92%
Directional	195	5.41%	-8.02%
Source: Baker Hughes Inc.

Storage Graph
Stocks Table
History Table

Working Gas in Underground Storage
	Stocks billion cubic feet (bcf)
Region	3/8/13	3/1/13	change
East	830	922	-92
West	339	344	-5
Producing	769	817	-48
Total	1,938	2,083	-145
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Working Gas in Underground Storage
	Historical Comparisons
	Year ago (3/8/12)		5-year average (2008-2012)
Region	Stocks (Bcf)	% change	Stocks (Bcf)	% change
East	1,067	-22.2	792	4.8
West	346	-2.0	264	28.4
Producing	965	-20.3	684	12.4
Total	2,378	-18.5	1,740	11.4
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Temp. Table
Average Temp.
Diff. b/w average and normal

Temperature -- Heating & Cooling Degree Days (week ending Mar 07)
		HDD deviation from:			CDD deviation from:
Region	HDD Current	normal	last year	CDD Current	normal	last year
New England	208	-18	-12	0	0	0
Middle Atlantic	218	5	30	0	0	0
E N Central	264	39	72	0	-1	0
W N Central	267	41	75	0	-1	0
South Atlantic	177	46	70	0	-10	-13
E S Central	187	61	92	0	-3	-4
W S Central	107	27	61	2	-7	-9
Mountain	161	-13	-14	0	-1	0
Pacific	83	-13	-15	0	-1	0
United States	189	20	41	0	-3	-4
Note: HDD = heating degree-day; CDD = cooling degree-day Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration