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Posted February 11, 2026

EIA forecasts lower oil prices in 2026 and 2027 due to persistent stock builds ›

quarterly world petroleum production and consumption

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), February 2026
Data values: International Petroleum and Other Liquids Production, Consumption, and Inventories and Energy Prices

We forecast that production of petroleum and other liquids will continue to exceed global demand, which results in Brent crude oil prices falling from an average of $69 per barrel (b) in 2025 to $58/b in 2026 and $53/b in 2027. Crude oil prices tend to decrease as global petroleum stocks increase. Persistently high implied global oil inventory builds in the near-term are putting downward pressure on crude oil prices despite heightened uncertainty around the volume of crude oil exports from Russia and Venezuela.

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