U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
WASHINGTON DC 20585
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
December 9, 2025
EIA launches STEO modernization; revises natural gas forecast on cold snap
Alongside publication of this month’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced plans to modernize its core short-term forecasting system.
“EIA is decisively accelerating toward a more integrated and timely forecasting system that better reflects the evolving role of the United States in global energy markets,” said EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey.
The current model underpinning STEO was built a quarter-century ago. EIA expects to begin the modernization in stages, starting with a new upstream model this spring and full completion in 2027. The new system will feature modern data architecture with automated data flows, internal visualization tools, and comprehensive documentation.
In its December (STEO), EIA forecasts the cold snap hitting the United States this month will drive the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average almost $4.30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this winter, which is more than 40 cents/MMBtu higher than its November forecast. The price increase is driven by increased natural gas consumption for space heating.
EIA forecasts that global crude oil prices will continue to fall through 2026, U.S. coal consumption to decrease in 2026, and electricity generation will continue to rise through 2026.
Other key takeaways from the December STEO are below.
| U.S. energy market indicators | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel) | $81 | $69 | $55 |
| Retail gasoline price (dollars per gallon) | $3.31 | $3.11 | $3.00 |
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) | 13.2 | 13.6 | 13.5 |
| Natural gas price at Henry Hub (dollars per million British thermal units) | $2.19 | $3.56 | $4.01 |
| U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports (billion cubic feet per day) | 12 | 15 | 16 |
| Shares of U.S. electricity generation | |||
| Natural gas | 42% | 40% | 40% |
| Coal | 16% | 17% | 16% |
| Nuclear | 19% | 18% | 18% |
| Conventional hydropower | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| Wind | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Solar | 5% | 7% | 8% |
| Other energy sources | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| U.S. GDP (percentage change) | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% |
| U.S. CO2 emissions (billion metric tons) | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2025 Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report. |
|||
- Global oil inventory and prices: EIA expects global oil inventories to keep rising through 2026, which should push oil prices lower in the coming months. EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil price will fall to average $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and remain steady for the rest of next year. EIA expects oil prices to remain steady due to the OPEC+ policy to limit additional production increases and China’s continued inventory builds.
- Electricity generation: EIA forecasts U.S. electricity generation will grow by 2.3% in 2025 and by 1.7% in 2026, breaking a trend of relatively flat generation from 2010 to 2020. Growth in generation is primarily driven by increasing demand from large customers, including data centers, concentrated in regions managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and the PJM Interconnection.
- Natural gas prices: The Henry Hub natural gas spot price in EIA’s forecast rises to an average of $3.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this winter following seasonal patterns of prices rising during the winter to meet space heating demand. EIA expects prices to average $4.00/MMBtu in 2026, which would be about 16% higher than in 2025.
- Coal consumption: : EIA expects coal consumption to increase by 9% in 2025, driven by an 11% increase in electric power coal consumption this year. The cost of natural gas rose in 2025, making coal a more economical option to meet increasing electricity demand. Coal consumption falls in 2026 in EIA’s forecast as electric power generation from renewable sources increases. Coal production falls by less than consumption next year, supporting more coal exports and rising coal inventories.
- Winter Fuels Outlook update: EIA updated its forecast for winter heating costs, forecasting higher total costs for homes heated primarily by natural gas as natural gas prices increase. EIA will update this forecast every month through March 2026.
The full December 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website. The January 2026 STEO will be the first to include energy sector forecasts for 2027.
EIA Program Contact: Tim Hess, STEO@eia.gov
EIA Press Contact: Chris Higginbotham, EIAMedia@eia.gov