Carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase

Bar graph showing projected greenhouse gas emissions over the next two decades growing faster for non-OECD countries than for OECD countries.
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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2016, Reference case, May 2016

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration's International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference case, world energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to increase from 32.3 billion metric tons in 2012 to 35.6 billion metric tons in 2020 and to 43.2 billion metric tons in 2040.

Much of the projected growth in CO2 emissions is attributed to developing nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), many of which continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels to meet the fast-paced growth of energy demand. In the IEO2016 Reference case, non-OECD emissions in 2040 total 29.4 billion metric tons, or about 51% higher than the 2012 level. In comparison, OECD emissions total 13.8 billion metric tons in 2040, or about 8% higher than the 2012 level.