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Industrial Demand Module - NEMS Documentation

September 14, 2022


This report documents the objectives and analytical approach of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Industrial Demand Module (IDM). The report catalogues and describes module assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and module source code. This edition of documentation is written for the NEMS version corresponding to the Annual Energy Outlook 2022.

This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS Industrial Demand Module for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, section 57.b2). Third, it facilitates continuity in module development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake module enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements in future projects.

Model summary

The NEMS Industrial Demand Module is a dynamic accounting model, bringing together representations of disparate industries and uses of energy in those industries and putting them in an understandable and cohesive framework. The IDM generates long-term (base year 2018 through the year 2050) projections of industrial sector energy demand as a component of the integrated NEMS. From NEMS, the IDM receives fuel prices, employment data, and the value of industrial shipments.

The NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 15 manufacturing and 6 non-manufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are classified as either energy-intensive manufacturing industries or non-energy-intensive manufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are modeled using detailed process flows or end-use accounting procedures. In addition, some of the end-use submodules are modeled in somewhat more detail. The energy-intensive bulk chemicals industry is subdivided into four industry components, and the food industry is also subdivided into four components. The energy-intensive industries of cement and lime, aluminum, glass, iron and steel, and pulp and paper have detailed process flow submodules. The non-manufacturing industries are represented in less detail. The IDM projects energy consumption at the census region level; energy consumption at the census division level is allocated by using data from the State Energy Data System (SEDS) for 2019. The national-level forecasts reported in the November 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) were allocated to the census divisions, also using the SEDS 2019 data. The four census regions are divided into nine census divisions and are listed in Table 1.

Table 1. Census regions and census divisions
Census region Census divisions States
1 (East) 1,2 Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont
2 (Midwest) 3, 4 Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin
3 (South) 5, 6, 7 Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia
4 (West) 8, 9 Arizona, Alaska, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/maps-data/maps/reference/us_regdiv.pdf.

Unless otherwise noted, each manufacturing industry is modeled as three components: the process and assembly component (PA), the buildings component (BLD), and the boiler, steam, and cogeneration component (BSC). For the manufacturing industries, the PA component is separated into the major production processes or end uses. The non-manufacturing industries (agriculture, construction, and mining) have a different component structure. Agriculture PA includes the following components: irrigation, buildings, and vehicles. Construction includes buildings, civil engineering, and trade components. Mining includes vehicles and production components.

Archival media

The module is archived as part of the National Energy Modeling System production runs used to generate the Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022).

Model contact

Peter Gross
(202) 586-8822
Office of Energy Analysis
Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling
Energy Consumption & Efficiency Modeling Team
1000 Independence Avenue, SW
Washington, DC 20585

See full report