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Drivers are expected to pay an average $3.57 per gallon for regular gasoline this summer, close to last year's level, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's April Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook.
The price for Brent crude oil—which typically accounts for about two-thirds of the retail price of gasoline—is expected to average $105 per barrel this summer driving season (April through September), which is about $2 below its level last summer. However, the benefit of lower crude oil prices is expected to be almost fully offset by higher wholesale margins compared to last summer, although expected wholesale margins remain below their levels during the 2011 and 2012 summers.
This summer's monthly average gasoline price is expected to peak at $3.66 per gallon in May and then steadily decline to $3.46 in September. Gasoline prices vary by region, with the West Coast average price expected to be as much as 48 cents per gallon higher than the Gulf Coast price. Excluding the West Coast, the differences in average gasoline prices for each of the other four main U.S. regions—East Coast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and Rocky Mountain—are forecast to be smaller this summer compared to last year.
Other highlights of EIA's summer gasoline market forecast are:
Principal contributor: Tom Doggett
Tags: forecasts/projections, gasoline, prices, STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook)
