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Press Room


July 26, 2023

Statement on the Annual Energy Outlook and EIA’s plan to enhance long-term modeling capabilities

At the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), a core aspect of our mission is to develop long-term projections of the U.S. energy system that inform decision makers at all levels. This work requires keeping pace with rapidly evolving energy markets, policies and regulations, macroeconomic trends, technology innovation, and resource availability.

EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), which we use to produce our Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), requires substantial updates to better model hydrogen, carbon capture, and other emerging technologies.

Our usual AEO publication schedule does not accommodate these necessary model enhancements, which require significant time and resources. As a result, EIA will not publish an AEO in 2024. This decision does not affect publications relying on our near-term modeling, such as the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

By retooling NEMS in 2024, the next AEO in 2025 will more comprehensively address existing laws and regulations in the Reference case, including up-to-date provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act and regulatory actions that could be finalized in the coming months.

We have also embarked on a longer-term effort to develop a flexible, next generation modeling framework that is better suited to address the ongoing changes in the U.S. energy sector.

We will continue to communicate with our stakeholders on these critical modeling issues and provide regular progress reports on our website.

Our plan ensures that the AEO will continue to provide a sound and independent long-term perspective on the U.S. energy sector for lawmakers, energy modelers, and other stakeholders.

This statement was prepared by EIA, the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. The views in this statement therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.

EIA Press Contact: Chris Higginbotham, EIAMedia@eia.gov