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‹ Analysis & Projections

International Energy Outlook 2017

Release Date: September 14, 2017   |  Next Release Date: September 2018  |   Report Number: DOE/EIA-0484(2017)

Issues in Focus

Capital investment in upstream oil and natural gas industries

VICTORIA ZARETSKAYA, FAOUZI ALOULOU, AND LAURA SINGER

Release Date: 02/15/18

Expectations about future energy prices play an important role in decisions to invest in the development of oil and natural gas resources.  Crude oil prices declined by more than 50% between 2014 and 2016, and capital investment in oil and natural gas resources fell by about 40%. Even though crude oil prices have remained lower than their 2014 levels, the International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017) anticipates a large increase in oil and natural gas production with many large, capital-intensive projects that will come online after 2025 to meet rising demand. This article discusses recent trends in the upstream oil and natural gas markets that provide products for transport and further processing (i.e., crude oil refining and natural gas liquefaction), explains how these trends are reflected in IEO2017, and covers some of the uncertainties surrounding these projections.

Low and high economic growth cases for China and India

Vipin Arora and Linda Doman

Release Date: 11/21/2017

Economic growth in both China and India is an important determinant of worldwide energy consumption because of their large size and the anticipated high economic growth that extends far into the future. Yet, considerable uncertainty exists as to how fast these two economies will actually grow over the next 25 years.  This article discusses the economic developments in these two countries and compares results from separate runs of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) model to the projections in the International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017). These results help quantify some of the uncertainty associated with the effects that differences in long-term economic growth in China and India may have on international energy markets.

Plug-in electric vehicles: future market conditions and adoption rates

Melissa Lynes

Release Date: 10/23/2017

Variability surrounding future battery technology, government policies, consumer preferences, and other developments related to personal transportation markets casts a great deal of uncertainty on the long-term effects that battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles may have on worldwide energy consumption. This article discusses market trends related to these plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and compares results from standalone runs of EIA’s new International Transportation Energy Demand Determinates model [1] to those presented in the International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017). These results help quantify some of the uncertainty associated with the long-term effects that PEVs may have on energy markets.