International Energy Outlook 2021

Non-OECD Asia lacks adequate production to meet growing demand; most of the crude oil it uses comes from the Middle East

Non-OECD Asia leads increased consumption of liquid fuels but has limited increases in regional crude oil production

In the Reference case, liquid fuels consumption grows the most in non-OECD Asia regions, where consumption nearly doubles from 2020 levels. The transportation and industrial sectors account for most of the projected growth.

Figure 35.

This consumption growth primarily occurs in the rapidly developing economies of China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Other non-OECD Asia countries. In contrast, crude oil production is relatively flat in the largest countries of that region—China and India—through 2050, and production declines in Other non-OECD Asia after 2030. This disconnect between liquid fuels consumption and production is most notable in India, where 2050 consumption will be three times higher than 2020 levels, yet crude oil production will be lower in 2050 than in 2020. Similarly, while China increases crude oil production, this increase will not be sufficient to balance the liquid fuels consumption growth over the projection period. To compensate for this regional imbalance between oil consumption and production in the Reference case, non-OECD Asia supplements its local production with increased imports of crude oil or finished products. Furthermore, these regions might invest in additional infrastructure (such as import terminals or refineries) to continue to support their rapid consumption growth.

OPEC crude oil production increases through 2050, driven by high projected gains in Middle East production

Figure 36.

OPEC crude oil production increases through 2050, driven by high projected gains in Middle East production

In the Reference case, crude oil production in OPEC countries increases over the projection period. Compared with the four largest non-OPEC oil producers—Russia, the United States, Canada, and Brazil—OPEC crude oil production shows significant growth. Although OPEC member countries in Africa and South America contribute to this production, the Middle East drives increases in projected OPEC production, increasing production by more than 50% from 2020 to 2050 in this region. The combination of resources available in this region and the proximity of the Middle East to growing non-OECD economies in Asia contribute to the growth. The Middle East is already a prevalent supplier of crude oil to Asia, and we project it to remain so as demand for liquid fuels continues to increase and as many Asian refineries configure to process the Middle East’s crude oil.

The four largest non-OPEC oil producers increase production at modest rates, and U.S. production declines after 2030

Figure 37.

In the Reference case, non-OPEC crude oil and lease condensate production increases over the projection period. Russia’s proximity to the growing non-OECD Asian markets provides a strong incentive to continue increasing production rates. By 2050, production in Russia will approach levels close to those of the United States. Meanwhile, the United States will increase production at a much more modest level. U.S. production will begin to decrease after 2030, and similarly, Canada’s production growth will begin to subside after 2040. The leveling off of production in North America occurs as tight oil development moves into less productive areas and well productivity declines. The relatively high transportation costs associated with moving North America’s crude oil to Asia also contributes to the leveling off in production. Additional production growth from Brazil relies on overall increasing oil prices and continued technological and efficiency improvements. Brazil’s future production originates primarily in technically challenging offshore environments.