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International Energy Outlook 2021

Release Date: October 6, 2021 Next Release Date: October 2023 IEO Narrative PDF

Side cases address two significant sources of uncertainty

To gauge the impact of economic growth on energy consumption, we adopted assumptions surrounding regional factors of growth in the High and Low Economic Growth cases. The resulting compound annual growth rates of global gross domestic product (GDP) during the projection period (2020–2050) vary from the Reference case as follows:

  • 3.7% per year, High Economic Growth case
  • 2.8% per year, Reference case
  • 2.0% per year, Low Economic Growth case

The High and Low Oil Price cases build on the High and Low Economic Growth cases, respectively, to address the uncertainty associated with world energy prices. We altered the assumptions about oil supply to achieve higher and lower oil prices, as seen in the 2050 input price of North Sea Brent crude oil (in 2020 dollars):

  • $176 per barrel, High Oil Price case
  • $95 per barrel, Reference case
  • $45 per barrel, Low Oil Price case