U.S. Energy Information Administration logo
Skip to sub-navigation

Workshop Series: Trends and Expectations Surrounding the Outlook for Energy Markets

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will host three virtual workshops that will expand an EIA paper Trends and Expectations Surrounding the Outlook for Energy Markets. All times listed are in Eastern Time.

Macroeconomic and Energy Sector Demand Workshop, Friday, September 25, 2020 (1:00 p.m.–2:30 p.m.)

Petroleum and Natural Gas Markets Workshop, Tuesday, September 29, 2020 (11:00 a.m.–12:00 p.m.)

Electric Power Markets Workshop, Thursday, October 1, 2020 (1:00 p.m.–2:30 p.m.)

The workshops have three primary objectives:

  • Bringing together experts to share their knowledge and identify key issues to consider when developing EIA’s short- and long-term outlooks in light of the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Reconciling current and near-term market conditions that directly affect EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) results with the related uncertainty and modeling limitations in the long-term Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)
  • Informing the public and EIA stakeholders on and establishing a common basis for analysis, discussion, and risk management

Macroeconomic and Energy Sector Demand Workshop

Friday, September 25, 2020 (1:00 p.m.–2:30 p.m.)

REGISTER

This workshop includes three sessions covering macroeconomic discussion and energy sector demand. The first two sessions focus on macroeconomic discussions—the first covers domestic U.S. macroeconomic drivers and outlook,the second covers global macroeconomic drivers and outlook with a focus on OECD Europe, China, and India. The third session incorporates economic and other changes potentially affecting domestic energy demand in the transportation, industrial, and buildings sectors.

Session 1: Domestic Macroeconomic Drivers and Outlook
1:00 p.m.–1:30 p.m.

Panelists

  • Joel Prakken, Vice President, Chief U.S. Economist & Co-head of U.S. Economics, IHS-Markit
  • Paul Ashworth, Chief North American Economist, Capital Economics
  • Moderator: Nicholas Chase, Team Lead, Macroeconomic Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Discussion questions

  • What will be the main factors driving domestic GDP in the short, medium and long term?
  • How will these factors be different following the COVID-19 experience?
  • What different paths might the economy take, and what are the major risks involved in each path?
  • How could these factors affect U.S. energy markets?

Session 2: Global Macroeconomic Drivers and Outlook
1:30 p.m.–2:00 p.m.

Panelists

  • Ben May, Director of Global Macro Research, Oxford Economics
  • Joydeep Mukherji, Managing Director, S&P Global Ratings
  • Peter Nagle, Senior Economist, World Bank
  • Moderator: Nicholas Chase, Team Lead, Macroeconomic Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Discussion questions

  • What is the economic outlook for OECD Europe and the major risks associated with an economic recovery?
  • What is the economic outlook for India and the major risks associated with an economic recovery?
  • What is the economic outlook for China and the major risks associated with an economic recovery?
  • How could these factors affect U.S. energy markets?

Session 3: Energy Market Demand
2:00 p.m.–2:30 p.m.

Panelists

  • James Sweeney, Stanford University Precourt Energy Center
  • Whitney Herndon, Rhodium Group
  • Moderator: John Maples, Team Lead, Transportation Consumption & Efficiency, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Discussion questions

Industrial

  • Which industries are most severely impacted, and what is the prognosis for recovery?
  • Beyond macroeconomic factors, what long-term structural changes may result in the industrial sector as a result of the pandemic?
  • How does the pandemic affect industrial energy intensity and emissions, both in the short and long term?

Buildings

  • Which service sectors’ energy consumption is most severely affected in the short term, and in what direction? How long might these effects persist?
  • Are long-term structural changes likely in the commercial sector as a result of the pandemic?
  • How does the pandemic affect residential energy intensity, both in the short and long term? Are there any long-term behavioral impacts reflected in these effects?
  • Do you think the pandemic is affecting/will affect population migration within the United States? If so, how?

Transportation

  • Which modes are most severely affected, and when will travel demand recover?
  • Beyond macroeconomic factors, what mid-term and long-term structural changes may appear in the transportation sector as a result of the pandemic?
  • How does the pandemic affect transportation energy efficiency, consumption, and the adoption of new technologies (for example, electric vehicles), both in the short and long term?

Petroleum and Natural Gas Markets Workshop

Tuesday, September 29, 2020 (11:00 a.m.–12:00 p.m.)

REGISTER

This workshop includes two sessions that cover the U.S. petroleum and natural gas market linkages to the global market. The first session will focus on short- to medium-term signposts of market rebalancing. The second session will focus on longer-term competition issues in the petroleum and LNG markets.

Session 1:  Identifying signposts for rebalanced oil and gas markets

Panelists

  • John Kemp, Reuters
  • Kevin Book, Clearview Energy Partners (Managing Director)
  • Moderator: John Staub, Director, Office of Petroleum Natural Gas and Biofuels Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Discussion questions

  • How important is the timing of returning to the 2019 global liquids demand level?
  • When would we know the pandemic has a lasting impact on slope of global demand growth?
  • How can we use tanker rate indices, hedge fund positions, international oil company investments and divestitures, tariffs levels, vehicle sales, etc.?

Session 2:  Supply competition in oil and gas markets

Panelists

  • Mark Finley, Rice University’s Baker Institute (Fellow)
  • Sara Vakhshouri, SVB International (Founder)
  • Ross Wyeno, S&P Global Platts (Lead Analyst, LNG Analytics)
  • Moderator: John Staub, Director, Office of Petroleum Natural Gas and Biofuels Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Discussion questions

  • What are the objectives of OPEC+ (market share, pricing power, fiscal requirements)?
  • Does OPEC strategy shift as Asia becomes more dependent on oil imports?
  • What is the impact of lower investment on the ability of oil and gas industry to bring production back when demand rebounds (U.S. tight oil, and internationally)?
  • How large can the LNG liquefaction market grow?

Electric Power Markets Workshop

Thursday, October 1, 2020 (1:00 p.m.–2:30 p.m.)

REGISTER

Some new electric generating unit installations and routine electric utility maintenance activities have been delayed or deferred, while electricity consumption patterns have been influenced by COVID-19-related activities. Through this workshop, EIA will explore the impact of these activities and the potential ramifications for the U.S. bulk electric power system, the operation of electric power markets, and the electric generation fuel mix, as well as the potential for capital investment and the associated revenue impacts on the electric power industry.

Panelists

  • Christine Tezak, Managing Director, Clearview Energy Partners
  • Ethan Zindler, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)
  • Chris Pilong, Director, Operations, PJM Interconnection
  • Justin Baca, Vice President of Markets and Research, Solar Energy Industries Association
  • Utility Industry Representative (TBD)
  • Moderator: Chris Namovicz, Team Lead, Renewables Electricity Analysis Team, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Discussion questions

  • Have you seen changes in electricity consumption or consumption patterns across the customer classes and would you expect a continuation of these patterns or a shift once COVID-19-related restrictions are eased? Have there been any unique impacts for specific customer classes?
  • Do you foresee or have there been any limitations encountered in the planning for, or investment in, electric generation, transmission, or distribution assets, such as supply chain, or skilled workforce limitations, access to financing, liquidity concerns, etc., or in receiving cost recovery from regulatory agencies?
  • Has the current situation presented opportunities to accelerate the investment in, or deployment of, new technologies sooner than originally envisioned, or conversely, have there been opportunities to accelerate the retirement  of obsolete assets?
  • Has there been any noticeable change in the activity surrounding residential/commercial behind the meter generation installations or energy storage projects or in the outlook for renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs)?
  • Do you foresee any changes at the federal or state level (in terms of support for electric generation, transmission, or distribution investments; Renewable Portfolio or Carbon-free Generation Standards; environmental initiatives, etc.) to help mitigate any impacts on the electric power sector?

Back to top