- Key takeaways from the Reference case and side cases
- The Annual Energy Outlook 2022 explores long-term energy trends in the United States
- What is the AEO2022 Reference case?
- What are the side cases?
- Motor gasoline remains the most prevalent transportation fuel despite electric vehicles gaining market share
- Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dip through 2035 before climbing later in the projection years
- Energy consumption increases through 2050 as population and economic growth outweighs efficiency gains
- Electricity continues to be the fastest-growing energy source in buildings, with renewables and natural gas providing most of the incremental electricity supply
- Electricity demand grows slowly across the projection period, which increases competition among fuels
- Renewable electricity generation increases more rapidly than overall electricity demand through 2050
- Battery storage complements growth in renewables generation and reduces natural gas-fired and oil-fired generation during peak hours
- As coal and nuclear generating capacity retire, new capacity additions come largely from wind and solar technologies
- U.S. production of natural gas and petroleum and other liquids rises amid growing demand for exports and industrial uses
- Driven by rising prices, U.S. crude oil production in the Reference case returns to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 and stabilizes over the long term
- Refinery closures lower domestic crude oil distillation operating capacity, but refinery utilization rates remain flat over the long term
- Consumption of renewable diesel increases as a share of the domestic fuel mix
Motor gasoline remains predominant despite a growing mix of technologies in passenger vehicles
The majority of new vehicles are powered by liquid fuels
Spurred by rising incomes, increases in employment rates, and population growth, total annual sales of new light-duty vehicles (LDVs) in the United States in the Reference Case increase after the 2020 economic downturn before leveling off after 2025. EIA projects fewer sales of new LDVs in every year in the projection period than in 2019, although the market continues to grow for alternative technologies, particularly battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Gasoline and flex-fuel vehicles—which may use gasoline blended with up to 85% ethanol—accounted for 95% of the new LDV market in 2020, but their share of new-vehicle sales decreases to 79% in 2050. Both BEVs and electric hybrids increase their market shares of annual new LDV sales.
Motor gasoline consumption in U.S. transportation sector peaks in 2022
Because most light-duty vehicles have internal combustion engines, motor gasoline remains the major transportation fuel through 2050 as personal travel returns to pre-pandemic per-driver levels in the longer term. After pandemic response-related demand losses in 2020, consumption of motor gasoline in transportation peaks in about 2022 as fuel economy improvements partially offset travel growth. Motor gasoline use slowly trends lower thereafter as a result of further fuel economy improvements in new LDVs relative to travel growth, as well as increasing sales of energy-efficient alternative-fueled vehicles that further displace motor gasoline use.
Sales of new light-duty vehicles remain lower than the 2019 level for the entire projection period, although the market continues to grow for alternative technologies, particularly battery electric vehicles.
-
Previous Editions of the AEO
-
Documentation and Assumptions