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The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview
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International Energy Module

bullet gif  Scope of IEM
bullet gif  Relation to Other NEMS Components


Chapters in this Report:

Introduction/Overview of NEMS
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Modules:
  Macroeconomic
  International Energy
  Residential Demand
  Commercial Demand

  Industrial Demand
  Transportation Demand

  Electricity Market
  Renewable Fuels
  Oil and Gas Supply
  Natural Gas Transmission & Distribution
  Petroleum Market Module

  Coal Market Module
International Energy Module    

The International Energy Module (IEM) (Figure 4) performs the following functions: 

  • Calculates the world oil price (WOP) that equilibrates world crude-like liquids supply with demand for each year. The WOP is defined as the price of light, low sulfur crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma. 
  •  Provides the projected world crude-like liquids supply curve (for each year) used by the Petroleum Market Module (PMM).  These curves are adjusted to reflect expected conditions in international oil markets and projected changes in U.S. crude-like liquids production and consumption. 
  • Provide annual regional (country) level production detail for conventional and unconventional liquids based on exogenous assumptions about expected country-level liquid fuels production and producer behavior. 
  • Projects crude oil and light and heavy refined product import quantities into the U.S. by year and by source based on exogenous assumptions about future exploration, production, refining, and distribution investments worldwide. 


Table describing the IEM Outputs.  Need help, contact the Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.
 

Figure 4. International Energy Module Structure. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.
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Scope of IEM   back to top

Non-U.S. liquid fuels markets are represented in NEMS by the interaction between the PMM and the IEM.  Using the specific algorithm described in the documentation of this module, IEM calculates the WOP that equilibrates world crude-like liquids supply with demand for each year.  The IEM then estimates new world crude-like liquids supply curves based on exogenous, expected U.S. and world crude-like liquids supply and demand curves and that incorporate any changes in U.S. crude-like liquids production or consumption projected by other NEMS modules. Operationally, IEM passes to PMM an array of nine points of this supply curve, with the equilibrium point being the fifth point of this array. 

Input data into IEM contain the historical percentages of imports of oils, heavy and light products imported into U.S. from different regions in the world.  Using these values and total imports into the U.S. of crudes, heavy and light products provided by PMM, IEM generates a report, with imports by source for every year in the projection. 

While the IEM is intended to be executed as a module of the NEMS system, and utilizing its complete capabilities and features requires a NEMS interface, it is also possible to execute the IEM module on a stand-alone basis.  In stand-alone mode, the IEM calculates the WOP based on an exogenously specified projection of U.S. crude-like liquids production and consumption. Sensitivity analyses can be conducted to examine the response of the world oil market to changes in oil price, production capacity, and demand. To summarize, the model searches for the WOP that equilibrates crude-like liquids supply and demand at the world level.

Based on the final results for U.S. total liquids production and consumption, IEM also provides an International Petroleum Supply and Disposition Summary table for world conventional and unconventional liquids production as well as for world liquids demand by region.  Exogenous data used to build this report is contained in omsinput.wk1 file. Each scenario has its own version of this file. 

Because U.S. production and consumption of conventional liquids are dynamic values (output from NEMS), all other world regions have been proportionally updated such that the world liquids production and consumption reflect the corresponding value as in the International Energy Outlook (IEO).

   
Relation to Other NEMS Components   back to top

The IEM both uses information from and provides information to other NEMS components. It primarily uses information about projected U.S and world crude-like liquids production and consumption and petroleum imports and provides information about the world liquid fuels markets, including global crude-like liquids supply curves and the sources of petroleum imports into the U.S. It should be noted, however, that the present focus of the IEM is on the international oil market where the 

WOP is computed.  Any interactions between the U.S. and foreign regions in fuels other than oil (for example, coal trade) are modeled in the particular NEMS module that deals with that fuel. 

For U.S. crude-like liquids production and consumption in any year of the projection period, the IEM uses projections generated by the NEMS PMM (based on supply curves provided by the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM) and demand curves from the end-use demand modules).  

U.S. and world expected crude-like liquids supply and demand curves, for any year in the projection period, are exogenously provided through data included in input file omsecon.txt, as detailed in the documentation of the IEM.

   
   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Preface and Contacts
Appendix

 

 
Chapters in this Report:

Introduction/Overview of NEMS
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Modules:
  Macroeconomic
  International Energy
  Residential Demand
  Commercial Demand

  Industrial Demand
  Transportation Demand

  Electricity Market
  Renewable Fuels
  Oil and Gas Supply
  Natural Gas Transmission & Distribution
  Petroleum Market Module

  Coal Market Module