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Annual Energy Outlook 2022

Release Date: March 3, 2022 Next Release Date: March 16, 2023 AEO NarrativePDF
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What are the side cases?

  • We run eight standard side cases each year in addition to the Reference case. We also publish Issues in Focus analyses to explore emerging issues in the energy sector. The standard side cases are:
    • High Oil Price case
    • Low Oil Price case
    • High Oil and Gas Supply case
    • Low Oil and Gas Supply case
    • High Economic Growth case
    • Low Economic Growth case
    • High Renewables Cost case
    • Low Renewables Cost case
  • Global market balances, primarily non-domestic supply and demand factors, will drive future crude oil prices. To account for these factors, oil prices are an external assumption in our analysis. In the AEO2022 High Oil Price case, the price of Brent crude oil, in 2021 dollars, reaches $170 per barrel (b) by 2050, compared with $90/b in the Reference case and $45/b in the Low Oil Price case.
  • Compared with the Reference case, the High Oil and Gas Supply case assumes that the estimated ultimate recovery per well for tight oil, tight gas, or shale gas in the United States is 50% higher. This side case assumes that undiscovered resources in Alaska and the offshore Lower 48 states are 50% higher than in the Reference case. Rates of technological improvement that reduce costs and increase productivity in the United States are also 50% higher than in the Reference case. Conversely, the Low Oil and Gas Supply case assumes that the estimated ultimate recovery per well for tight oil, tight gas, or shale gas in the United States; the undiscovered resources in Alaska and the offshore Lower 48 states; and rates of technological improvement are all 50% lower.
  • The High Renewables Cost case and the Low Renewables Cost case examine the sensitivities surrounding capital costs for renewable electric power generation and diurnal storage technologies. We assume capital cost reductions for an electric power-generating technology occur from learning by doing as commercialization expands and construction and manufacturing experience accelerates. The High Renewables Cost case assumes no cost reductions from learning by doing for any renewable generation or diurnal storage technologies. The Low Renewables Cost case assumes faster technology learning for renewable generation and diurnal storage technologies through 2050, resulting in a cost reduction of about 40%, compared with the Reference case, by 2050. In addition, we assume fixed operating and maintenance costs will decline along with the capital cost from technology improvement.
  • The High Economic Growth case and Low Economic Growth case address the effects of economic assumptions on the energy consumption modeled in the AEO2022. From 2021 to 2050, the High Economic Growth case assumes the compound annual growth rate for U.S. GDP is 2.7%, and the Low Economic Growth case assumes a rate of 1.8%. However, the Reference case assumes the U.S. GDP annual growth rate is 2.2% over the projection period.
  • AEO2022 cases do not include the potential effects of proposed legislation, regulations, or standards, except as specifically noted in Issues in Focus analyses.
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