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The Annual Energy Outlook 2022 explores long-term energy trends in the United States
- Projections in the Reference case of our Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) are not predictions of what will happen, but rather, they are modeled projections of what may happen given certain assumptions and methodologies. The Reference case serves as a baseline for comparison between side cases that explain alternative trends. By varying Reference case assumptions and methodologies in side cases, AEO2022 can illustrate important factors in future energy production and use in the United States.
- Energy market projections are uncertain because we cannot foresee with certainty many of the events that shape energy markets—as well as future developments in technologies, demographics, and resources. To illustrate the importance of key assumptions, AEO2022 includes a baseline Reference case and several side cases that systematically vary important underlying assumptions.
- We developed AEO2022 by using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), an integrated model that captures interactions of economic changes and energy supply, demand, and prices.
- We publish the AEO2022 to satisfy the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977, which requires the EIA Administrator to prepare annual reports on trends and projections for energy use and supply.