In the short term, demand for electricity may fluctuate as a result of year-to-year weather changes, but EIA projects that longer-term trends in electricity demand are driven by economic growth, and are somewhat offset by efficiency improvements. In the AEO2021 Reference case, after electricity demand returns to 2019 levels (following the impacts of COVID-19) in 2022, the average annual growth rate surpasses 1% only toward the end of the projection period. EIA projects electricity demand in the AEO2021 High Economic Growth case to grow at about one-quarter of a percentage point faster than in the Reference case, and it projects electricitiy demand in the Low Economic Growth case to grow at about one-quarter of a percentage point slower than in the Reference case.
Although shifting weather patterns and efficiency improvements explain some of the near-term changes in electricity demand, the COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic downturn has a role as well, resulting in a near-term decline in electricity demand. EIA does not project long-term structural changes in electricity demand resulting from the pandemic, and the AEO2021 Reference case projects that demand largely returns to 2019 levels by 2025. Before 2025, higher residential sector demand partially offsets lower electricity demand from the commercial and industrial sectors.
The growth in electricity sales from vendors is lessened by significant growth in onsite generation in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Installation of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems, primarily on residential and commercial buildings, and combined-heat-and-power systems in industrial and some commercial applications, will account for more than 7% of total electricity generation by 2050, almost doubling the 2020 share of onsite power generators.
Although the greatest potential for increased electricity demand is within the transportation sector, electricity demand from this sector remains less than 3% of economy-wide electricity demand throughout the projection period. Current laws and regulations are not projected to induce much market growth, despite continuing improvements in electric vehicles (EVs) through evolutionary market developments. Both vehicle sales and utilization (miles driven) would need to increase substantially for EVs to raise electric power demand growth rates by more than a fraction of a percentage point per year.
EIA does not project long-term structural changes in electricity demand resulting from the pandemic, and the AEO2021 Reference case projects that demand largely returns to 2019 levels by 2025..